Pennsylvania is the ripest of the three states.
Pollster John McLaughlin has Romney ahead 48-46. His sample has 46 percent Democrats and 39 percent Republicans, a +7 Democrat sample. In the 2004 election, Pennsylvania’s actual voters were +3 Democrat, and in 2008, they were +7 Democrat. (These numbers are based on exit polls.) So McLaughlin’s sample may actually understate the Romney vote, since it is unlikely that Pennsylvania – or any state – will see a replication of the highly Democratic 2008 turnout.
And, in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, Republican Tom Smith is leading Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey by 2 points, according to McLaughlin, and 1 point, according to Rasmussen.
And why shouldn’t Pennsylvania go Republican?
In 2010, it elected a Republican governor, U.S. Senator, five Congressmen and put GOP majorities in charge of both houses of its legislature.
Focus on Pennsylvania! Its 20 electoral votes are even better than the 18 found in Ohio. (The old shibboleth that no Republican can win without Ohio comes from the time when the Buckeye State had 25 electoral votes. Seven of them moved south and now it has only 18.)