You saw and heard what my eyes and ears did too.
I’m not one of the still few undecided but if I were this last one would have been decisive in moving me to the President’s corner.
Arguing over who “won” each debate is so amateurish and done purely to make an individual feel good about themselves before bed, and why I rarely spend much time in these topics. It is subjective, and rather meaningless unless a major gaffe is made, ala Ford, or a major blow is levied for some reason, ala Reagan vs Mondale and the age issue.
It is like arguing that your team’s quarterback has performed better, because he passed for 50 more yards (and even that is not as subjective as debate performances). So what if he did? If your team doesn’t win those games, his stats are meaningless.
A debate’s success is only judged by the election polls that follow in the days after. If the polls go up for one candidate as they did after debate one, it is a win. If they stay flat after they have the last two plus the veep debate, they were net draws.
Arguing about who won the night is simply balm for people’s pride in their candidate, and pretty silly.
Here’s a recap of the debates, from my perspective:
Debate 1 - Romney unanimously does far better than Obama, in both snap polls of overall performance, and also wins the polls on key specific issues like jobs and taxes. Romney surges in polls and either takes a lead, or shrinks Obama’s lead in every single battleground state. Also takes lead nationally. 67 million people watched.
**Debate **2 - VP debate. fewer Americans watched, what is the major take away? I can barely remember anything Ryan said all night, and I recall Biden came off as very arrogant and petulant. Other than reinforcing people’s impressions of Biden and the press talking about him as a clown, this debate was a wash. Winner - no one. Loser - Joe Biden’s reputation. Aftermath shows polls don’t move for Obama at all.
Debate 3 - Town hug format. Some silly questions, poor moderation, Romney not effectively pursuing a cherry picked topic in Libya and letting the mod throw him off (big mistake for Mitt), the President doing better for sure, and afterwards, topical polls shows major Romney wins on taxes, jobs, and the economy, with Obama gaining a win in slight overall performance. Ultimately, Romney sees slight increases nationally and in swing states. 60 million people watched.
**Debate 4 **- snoozer of a debate, since most people aren’t as interested in foreign affairs like they were in 2004. Obama comes out as aggressive and once again, seems angry while staring at Romney. Maybe that plays well, maybe that doesn’t. Time will tell. Romney completely abandons Libya, which I find galling and foolish, but that was his call. He plays the “dove card”, and it is clearly an attempt to show he is not GWB, and not a chicken hawk on foreign policy. Probably smart with moderates and women. Snap polls show slight win for Obama, but no real negatives for Romney. Focus groups show they like Romney on domestic, and both candidates on FP. I expect abysmal ratings and few eyeballs, since A) the debate was the third of these affairs B) was on foreign policy, and C) was competing against Monday Night football, and game seven of the national league championship series. The ratings in St. Louis (midwest), Detroit (North), Chicago (midwest), and San Francisco (wets coast) will be record lows for a debate. Should do decent ratings in the east and south.
Unless the President moves the overall polls 5-6 points back his direction, the debates were a net loss for him and a net gain for Romney, and moreso than really any candidates since Reagan and Carter. To argue individual wins and losses simply allows people to sleep better at night for their guy. None of the debates after the first one were decisive for either candidate, or enough to undo the damage that debate did.
If the polls shift back to Obama, he has won the debates. If we see no movement, or Romney gains a few points, Romney won the debates.
