Possible Trump Win?

[Zake]

I was unsure about the tax cuts and I still am.

You are right to be unsure, but you really should be upset about it. I wonder how many people have read Henry Hazlitt’s “Economics in One Lesson”? Because anyone who read it and understood it would realize that Trump’s achieved a temporary and minor positive outcome, at the expense of a huge, negative price that our children and grandchildren will have to pay.

First of all, to measure the strength of the economy with the stock market is ludicrous. The stock market is just a huge, legalized gambling apparatus, which does not produce anything. Second, the tax cuts were used by the companies not to expand the production, but to buy back their shares. Third, since the tax cuts were not accompanied with spending cuts, all it did was making the deficit even worse than it used to be.

Unfortunately most people are not “savvy” about economics so a few demagogues can mislead them. That is, of course a long term problem. We would need an economics class for every new generation.

The truth is that there are many people who could be very good leaders, but they are all busy cutting hair and balancing the family checkbook. There was a great quote: “No one, who wishes to be president should be allowed to have that office. The best qualified person should be dragged kicking and screaming into the Oval Office, where she would do a wonderful job, so she can have time off for good behavior”.

Just think about it: there is no other profession or job, which would not require some education, and some certificate to prove that she is qualified for that job - except a darned politician. All they have to do is bamboozle the nincompoops to vote for them! And that is a nightmare.

 

[YADA]

was unsure about the tax cuts and I still am. I benefited a bit but my kids didn’t. It helped an upward economy continue but I think the price for that is down the road.

I am not sure how your children did not benefit from the tax cuts … unless they are high income earners [you know - those people we need to tax more] because the child tax credit increased as well as the standard deduction … where some filers saw an increase was in their itemized deductions where you were limited to $10,000 - so those who lived in states where state, local and property taxes were high lost some ability to deduct those taxes from their federal income - meaning they paid more in taxes due to writing off less, similar with limits to mortgage interest … but low income people rarely itemize and have huge mortgage interest and pay more than $`0k in state, local and property taxes. Trumps tax cuts also lowered the tax rates in 6 of the table income tiers …

Now if they did not adjust their withholding to have more taxes taken out and they are like a young man who used to work for me - who bases their idea of taxes paid by how large their refund is … which is not the correct measuring stick but so many use it - then they may have felt like they did not get a break. The young man I mentioned complained on Facebook about how Trumps tax cuts benefited the ‘rich’ and how he paid more … since he used to work for ma and we have remained in touch and I know about where he lands in income and how he would file - I challenged him with the data and told him to figure the tax rate per his gross and adjusted income from the previous year and the current year and tell me he paid a higher rate. And if he did - had he somehow changed his earnings to pay more at a higher rate… he is an intelligent mathematically competent person - with an associates in a math field …He then emailed me and explained that he was planning on a purchase with his typical refund amount - he got less back - but paid a lower rate - his take home pay had been higher when the IRS adjusted the withholding tables - if he had realized that he said he might have saved that difference or adjusted to have more taken out … but that I was right - he had paid less in taxes

 

[RhodesianSon]

He just went with the pros on that.

The pros wanted endless war to line their pockets with more money from defense contracts.

 

[tomarin]

Cutting taxes while spending an enormous amount on the federal budget doesn’t seem very smart (or conservative) to me.

He also gutted a lot of environmental regulations which gooses the economy in the short run but at what cost? I think a lot of Trump’s decision making is focused on what helps him in the short run regardless of whether it helps the country as a whole in the long run.

 

[scousekiwi]

The disparity between the massive numbers of Trump supports as see by his rallies,as opposed to his low polling just don’t line up.

I fear you are falling into the same error committed by the Jeremy Corbyn supporters on the eve of Britain’s last general election. They kept repeating that over 313,000 people had voted for Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party in 2016 and that when he appeared at the Glastonbury Festival in 2017 the crowd broke into a chant of, “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn”. What they never seemed to understand was that a few hundred thousand supporters is not enough to win an election in a country of almost 67 million people.

Pretty sure pedophilia is next on the agenda.

Absolutely no evidence for that. An offensive thing to say.

Democrat leaders like Bill Clinton sure seem to have connections to it.

Clinton’s morals are hardly exemplary, but there is absolutely no evidence that he is a paedophile.

Now apparently owning guns, lifting weights, and having a sense of honor are considered “toxic masculinity”.

That’s not what toxic masculinity means.

 

[Rockoh22]

WingedHussar:

Pretty sure pedophilia is next on the agenda.

Absolutely no evidence for that. An offensive thing to say.

I think the point being tried to make is, that in 20 years the way things are shifting so fast in the culture war, that pedophilia might be “legal”. This is a hyperbole to make a point, but there are indeed people pushing for this to be legal. Lower age of consent and go from there. Look for those law changes, and pedophilia will be legal. I pray it never comes.

 

[Canvas]

his best pal Jeffrey Epstein got exposed and his girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell is in prison.

you are aware that Epstein and Maxwell were associates of Donald Trump, right?

 

[Canvas]

538 gave Trump an almost 30% chance of winning on election day 2016. That is almost a 1 in 3 chance , which is not insignificant, of winning. It was about 1 in 3 a few days before (the polling lead Clinton had fell after the 3rd debate and then the Comey letter and 538 picked up on it. Also 538 factored in a very large amount of uncertainty because of a large portion of undecided voters—voters who broke for Trump more than Clinton in the swing states when they did vote). I know this because I have been following 538 for years and I can distinctly remember 538 refusing to bow to pressure from many due to other groups predicting over 90% chance of a clinton victory. They call most elections correctly (look at every other election!—like 2018, 2012, etc) and they gave Trump a better chance than pretty much anyone else.

People bash 538, but they are remarkably good at what they do.

 

[Annie]

I think a lot of Trump’s decision making is focused on what helps him in the short run regardless of whether it helps the country as a whole in the long run.

Short run is necassary in the business world where you have to appeal to stockholders.

 

[Annie]

you are aware that Epstein and Maxwell were associates of Donald Trump, right?

And Trump “was the only one who helped” (voluntarily) the prosecution bring its first case against Epstein.

 

[silentwitness]

Can you just imagine the meltdown from the left after another Trump victory??? The college snowflakes will dust off their Play-Doh and Legos and coloring books. And the network news anchors will appear like they just attended a wake…again. It will be simply scrumptious!!!

Let’s hope so.

 

[Zake]

Short run is necassary in the business world where you have to appeal to stockholders.

That is true, and it shows the colossal ignorance of the people in general. I already mentioned the book of Henry Hazlitt. His point is so very simple:

1. Look at both the short term and the long term effects.
2. Look at both the local and global effects.

 

[qui_est_ce]

What vile names did Biden call Trump in the debate? Believe me, everything Biden said was well rehearsed by his managers and handlers. He does not hate Trump, and neither does Trump hate Biden, no matter what concocted conspiracy theory involving his son that Trump and Giuliani manufactured against him.

He called Trump a racist and a destroyer.

 

[scousekiwi]

I don’t think it will happen. People were talking about legalising paedophilia in the UK in the 1970s. It was an agenda pushed by paedophiles who infiltrated the gay rights movement and the far left. They tried the usual tactics: we should all have unlimited freedom, children benefit from sexual experiences with adults, etc. They were soon exposed, lost any influence and veneer of respectability that they might have gained, were expelled from mainstream organisations and political parties, and some ended up in prison.

The difference between homosexuality and paedophilia is that homosexuality doesn’t cause harm. People will never tolerate paedophilia because we recognise that children are not capable of giving consent and are harmed, often profoundly and irreparably, by sexual abuse. People are happy for homosexuality to be legal because they know people who are gay and they see that they don’t cause harm. People will never be happy for paedophilia to be legal because they don’t want their children and grandchildren to be sexually abused.

If anything, paedophilia is less acceptable now. Just think about ‘Thank Heaven For Little Girls’: can you imagine if somebody wrote that song today? I’m not sure that ABBA would even get away with ‘Dancing Queen’ ('You’re a teaser, you turn 'em on|Leave ‘em burning and then you’re gone’).

These are just popular cultural references. The transformation in how paedophilia is dealt with has been remarkable. When I was growing up in the 1950s/60s, paedophilia was seemingly endemic among clergymen, schoolmasters, social workers, and families. It was illegal, and people were occasionally prosecuted, but for the most part, a blind eye was turned. In Britain, this cover-up included the police and Crown prosecutors, as well as bishops and even archbishops, MPs (including party whips), civil servants, and other “Establishment” figures such as public school headmasters. People simply didn’t think that sexually abusing children was very serious. Being a paedophile was viewed as a foible, rather like being an alcoholic, a gambler, or an adulterer.

30 years ago hardly anybody had heard of “child protection”. It was only in the late 1990s and early 2000s that schools, churches, charities, etc, responding to initiatives by the government, began to put in place procedures to protect children, such as carrying out background checks, maintaining a register of sex offenders, and implementing policies to avoid adults having unsupervised one-to-one contact with children and to discourage physical contact even in settings such as teaching sports and music. The other phenomenon that has emerged since 2000 (prompted by a tabloid newspaper campaign) is vigilante groups “hunting” paedophiles, exposing their identities, vandalising their homes, etc.

It may be that the situation in other parts of the world is completely different, but I really don’t believe that it is. All the evidence seems to be that paedophilia is becoming more stigmatised and is being more rigorously prevented and prosecuted. This is to a great extent due to better understanding of the disordered mind of the paedophile and the devastating impact on the victims.

 

[MikeInVA]

Cutting taxes while spending an enormous amount on the federal budget doesn’t seem very smart (or conservative) to me.

He also gutted a lot of environmental regulations which gooses the economy in the short run but at what cost? I think a lot of Trump’s decision making is focused on what helps him in the short run regardless of whether it helps the country as a whole in the long run.

These are great topics for discussion. I think that if the democrats had actually looked at his record instead of making it personal (and exaggerated), this would be a different race. Trump is far from perfect (although I’m happy with what he’s accomplished) but most of the attacks are so baseless that it’s hard to have a rational discussion.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I also can not get past his personality and how he’s irritated our friends overseas

If some European leftist is upset with his personality, they were with Bush as well. Big deal. On the other hand, three Muslim countries have just made peace with Israel with as many as five more waiting in the wings. When it comes to real accomplishments, Trump is head and shoulders over just about any other president when it comes to foreign policy.

 

[Pattylt]

I want to thank you for an informative post. I was born in 52 and also saw the shift in pedophilia acceptance. Even the Church was trying to deal with it back then…unfortunately by hiding it and moving them around but they also had them go through “counseling “ which at that time was believed to be curable and controllable. We now know differently. It was extremely rare for a pedophile to be exposed to the public by anyone. Children rarely reported it and authorities kept reputations intact. If any good has come from the sexual revolution, it’s that people began getting over their fears of talking about it and more importantly, reporting it.

 

[Pattylt]

Pattylt:

I also can not get past his personality and how he’s irritated our friends overseas

If some European leftist is upset with his personality, they were with Bush as well. Big deal. On the other hand, three Muslim countries have just made peace with Israel with as many as five more waiting in the wings. When it comes to real accomplishments, Trump is head and shoulders over just about any other president when it comes to foreign policy.

In this day and age, where we’ve become a global economy…and it’s not going to change…is this the best way to go about it? The idea that manufacturing is coming back to America is rediculous and naive. A few factories may reopen but that’s a drop in the bucket overall. Look at Wisconsin’s deal with Foxconn and the disaster that became. It was touted as bringing up to 13,000 jobs and never achieved over 130ish. Even with millions promised in tax breaks, it just isn’t economically feasible to have large manufacturing in the US. Right now, our biggest strength is the tech industry. Design and engineering done here, building it in China or Vietnam, etc. Now, the government wants to reign tech in because of perceived favoritism to the left. Funny, those tech giants are mostly Libertarians.

Trump himself has worked with other governments in his real estate dealings but seem to fumble when dealing with trade and politics. There are times he’s said and done things in the EU that have made no sense other than to try and embarrass them or us. Diplomacy certainly isn’t his strong suit! I agree the the EU needs to step up with their contributions and ease up on the US footing all the bills. So, let’s anger them and shame them? Nope, he’s not a diplomat when we need diplomacy. His bully tactics please his base but not those he needs to make deals with.

 

[Ridgerunner]

The idea that manufacturing is coming back to America is rediculous and naive.

I do not believe this.

Diplomacy certainly isn’t his strong suit!

And yet, he negotiated three Muslim countires to make peace with Israel, with five more in process.
He negotiated peace between Kosovo and Serbia; something nobody ever thought would happen. Remember how Clinton bombed Serbia and hit the Chinese embassy? And that, to you, is diplomacy?

It will not be easy to disenage our dependence on China. But we must. Biden is in their pocket; bought and paid for.

 

[Pattylt]

And yet, he negotiated three Muslim countires to make peace with Israel,

I think you’re giving Trump too much credit for these negotiations. His people are doing it…I don’t think he’s all that involved other than to take credit.

It will not be easy to disenage our dependence on China. But we must. Biden is in their pocket; bought and paid for.

We are in each other’s pockets. Like it or not, China is every bit as dependent on us as we are of them. Disentangling the dependency may be impossible. At best, we can reduce our dependence but not end it.