Possible Trump Win?

[Ridgerunner]

I sometimes wonder whether the liberal insistence that people who would not harm a member of another race due to that person’s race, is geared to intentionally persuade people to be racist. Certainly, the insistence of many political leaders that, e.g., the Ferguson and Baltimore killings were motivated by a pervasive racism has convinced a lot of people that, indeed, racism is pervasive when it isn’t.

And the more violence and the more accusations and the more promulgation of notions of pervasive racism, the more likely the purveyors are to tip people into genuine racism. You can’t beat up on people but so long, especially unjustly, without eventually getting an adverse reaction.

 

[FrankFletcher]

I sometimes wonder whether the liberal insistence that people who would not harm a member of another race due to that person’s race, is geared to intentionally persuade people to be racist.

That we view people on the other side of the aisle as having this kind of intention is a big reason why our country is in such bad shape. IMHO.

ETA: I don’t experience racism but I’m white. How can I say whether racism isn’t a problem for those of other races? For some it probably is pervasive.

 

[Thorolfr]

Canvas:

538 gave Trump an almost 30% chance of winning on election day 2016. That is almost a 1 in 3 chance , which is not insignificant, of winning.

I’m glad you pointed this out. Trump’s chances in 2016, by any objective measure, were hardly great, but they were far above zero.

This time, 538 (as of right now) gives Trump a 13% chance to win. That’s not good, of course, but it is better than zero. If Trump wins, it will be unexpected, but not absurdly so. It would be shocking if he wins in a landslide.

Interesting, one of the notable differences since 2016 is that there are far fewer undecided voters at this point. As you pointed out, these are the people that ultimately won the election for Trump. I guess pretty much everyone knows what he brings to the table by now. You either want more of it, or you don’t.

Fewer Undecided Voters Is Good News For Biden In The Midwest | FiveThirtyEight

As it says at Five Thirty Eight:

Trump has a meaningful chance, per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

 

[billsherman]

As it says at Five Thirty Eight:

Trump has a meaningful chance, per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

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(couldn’t help myself)

 

[qui_est_ce]

ETA: I don’t experience racism but I’m white. How can I say whether racism isn’t a problem for those of other races? For some it probably is pervasive.

Exactly the reverse is also true. Why do people assume only minorities have mountains to climb?

 

[Ridgerunner]

That we view people on the other side of the aisle as having this kind of intention is a big reason why our country is in such bad shape.

The ones who started attributing everything to “racism” were liberal leaders like Obama, not some homeowner and his wife in St. Louis.

I don’t experience racism but I’m white.

Visit St. Louis’ North Side at night and you’ll experience it very quickly.

Or if that’s too far away, the South Bronx.

 

[Peeps]

I think after 3.75 years of chaos and disruption, people are ready for a predictable, even dull candidate to hold the office. There is a palpable fatigue with the endless controversies, tweets, unpresidential behavior and so on.

Dull?

I see nothing dull about dismantling all the pro-life gains, getting rid of the Hyde Amendment (that will be a challenge), and taking away aid for nations who do not allow a woman “the freedom to choose to kill her unborn child.”

And I see nothing dull about seeing taxes go through the roof–not for millionaires and billionaires–we’ve heard that line of bullpoop over and over from Democrats and it never turns out that way–it’s the millionaires and billiionaires who are investing money in businesses, companies, stock and bonds, money markets, etc.–and thereby keeping our economy going. So they’ll be left alone, and the tax increases will happen to those of us who are making a decent income ($50,000-$100,000) compared to all the people making minimum wage.

I know that to those who are making minimum wage, $50,000/yr sounds like a fortune, but it’s really pretty paltry when you are using it to pay for college for your kids (instead of getting Pell grants, which you are denied because you earn too much), and pay for a house instead of paying rent (and not necessarily a grand mansion–we’re talking a 3 BR 1 Bath house in a decent but transitional neighborhood), and a decent car, which you need to get to and from work every single stinkin’ day for 40 years or more.

Oh, yes, we also need to save about a quarter or even half of that $50,000 for our retirement if we don’t want to end up in public housing or a state nursing home.

My husband and I make about $100,000 between the two of us, but almost $45,000 of it goes to various taxes. I’d say we are paying much more than our fair share, especially since we live in the city with the highest murder rate (percentage) in Illinois. And we work our butts off for that income–nothing comes from Daddy or lotto.

Like I said, I do not think Biden will be dull at all if he manages to get more money away from the middle class to pay for programs that are mismanaged bigtime by the massive bureaucracy of the federal government.

And no matter how politely someone tells us that we need to flush more of our money down the toilet, we will still be offended by that person.

 

[Canvas]

And Trump “was the only one who helped” (voluntarily) the prosecution bring its first case against Epstein.

Sources?

Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein's Connection, Explained

 

[meltzerboy2]

One point: hasn’t it often been the case that we have had recessions during or immediately after Republican administrations. I think of Reagan in 1989 and GWB in 2008, for example. Why do you think the Reps are any better than the Dems in maintaining a healthy economy?

 

[FrankFletcher]

FrankFletcher:

ETA: I don’t experience racism but I’m white. How can I say whether racism isn’t a problem for those of other races? For some it probably is pervasive.

Exactly the reverse is also true. Why do people assume only minorities have mountains to climb?

I was speaking from personal experience. I don’t experience racism in my own life. And as others have different experiences (by virtue of being different people), I’m not willing to say when someone has or hasn’t experienced racism.

 

[FrankFletcher]

FrankFletcher:

That we view people on the other side of the aisle as having this kind of intention is a big reason why our country is in such bad shape.

The ones who started attributing everything to “racism” were liberal leaders like Obama, not some homeowner and his wife in St. Louis.

To my knowledge, no one has attributed everything to racism. But if you just started hearing about racism in our country when Obama was president, perhaps you needed to be exposed to others’ experiences more.

 

[Peeps]

Why do you think the Reps are any better than the Dems in maintaining a healthy economy?

I think that getting rid of the onerous regulations is very helpful to businesses. I also think that reducing taxes for the middle class is helpful–we have more money to spend or (boring, but wiser!) to invest. And as businesses are started and become successful, more people have jobs that pay a living wage, which is great for the economy because they can spend some money now.

I’m not sure why the recession happens when Republicans lose, but I’m willing to bet that it has something to do with the changeover from a “business-friendly” government to a “business-hostile” government.

 

[F_Marturana]

The recession in 89 was Republican. George Bush was President in 89. Clinton was elected in 1992.

Also the recession in 2008 was Republican as well. Obama was inaugurated 2009.

 

[meltzerboy2]

The recessions often happen BEFORE Reps lose. In fact, that is one of the reasons why they fail to recapture the WH, as in the cases of George H. W. Bush and John McCain. And who says the Dems tax us more than the Reps? That’s an old myth, in my view. They both tax us plenty. I agree with what you say about excessive regulations, but surely there must be some middle ground rather than all or none.

 

[Rockoh22]

What IF. I just wonder what If Trump wins by a landslide. What then?

 

[meltzerboy2]

“Fill the car with gas and point it toward Mexico.” (The Honeymooners, Jackie Gleason.)

 

[meltzerboy2]

Yes, I meant to say that. The Dems have gotten a bad rap regarding the economy.

 

[CradleRC58]

Then will be a great time to buy stock in Kleenex.

 

[Ridgerunner]

To my knowledge, no one has attributed everything to racism. But if you just started hearing about racism in our country when Obama was president, perhaps you needed to be exposed to others’ experiences more.

Cute retort. But when the president of the U.S. suggests racism in some justified shootings just because the person shot is black and the shooter is white, it is intended to stir up racial animosities and did exactly that.

Of course I have heard of racism before. But the Dem party stirred it up for political purposes.

And who says the Dems tax us more than the Reps?

I don’t know. But Biden promises that he will.

I just wonder what If Trump wins by a landslide. What then?

Probably most truly religious people will give thanks to God.

 

[jeannetherese]

And who says the Dems tax us more than the Reps?

Mr. Biden introduced tax increases as part of his platform.

Democrats In Love With Big Tax Hikes Might Do Well To Remember Walter Mondale | Tax Policy Center

3.2 trillion does seem like quite a bit.
Here’s a bit more from The Hill:
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© Bonnie Cash

Democrats continue to attack Donald Trump and Republicans for handing out tax breaks to their wealthy friends and donors. Joe Biden last week at the national convention called Democrats the party for the working class and blue collar Americans. But is that really the case? Let us take a look at the two main tax stimulus proposals in front of Congress.

The plan from Trump would cut the payroll tax over the rest of the year. It would provide 140 million low and middle income Americans a 6 percent tax cut and would lower payroll costs for 30 million small businesses. The typical family with an income of around $60,000 would receive a $1,000 pay raise for the rest of the year. Nancy Pelosi has stated she opposes the idea, even though she supported this when Barack Obama was president. Trump signed an executive order to at least delay the payroll tax for those who make less than $100,000 during the rest of the year.

Now for the plan from Democrats. The House stimulus bill, which passed earlier this year at the cost of $3 trillion, has one clear tax cut. It is a new tax write off which would greatly aid Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, George Soros, and other wealthy campaign contributors to Democrats. This plan would reinstate the state and local tax deduction to federal filers.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513768-who-truly-wants-tax-cuts-for-rich