The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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Breaking News from Australia. This country has initiated its Pandemic plan phase.

Latest news, sport and opinion from the Guardian

Latest news, sport, comment, analysis and reviews from Guardian Australia
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Australia is proceeding as if a Global Pandemic has been declared.
 
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F_Marturana said:
There are about 4 flights from Seoul Korea to Los Angeles every day. There are 15 cases of Coronavirus in California, basically in Northern California, and including evacuees from the princess cruise ship.

Just because a group from Korea attended an award ceremony wouldn’t be a risk. Even if they won the Oscar.
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At the time of the awards ceremony, the coronavirus had not exploded like it has now. This was aeveral weeks ago. People can be sick and not show any symptoms. There were many people from South Korea in attendance because of the best picture winner. There were dinners, parties, etc. All it takes is one person to infect others. Look how quickly it spread on the cruise ship. I am hoping no one was sick, but there certainly was a possibiity.
 
There is a case in California with no traceability yet and looks like it could be a community origin. There is also an airhostess, who was flying into the States and was symptomatic on her flight.

Here is something to think about, Indonesia has not recorded one case , why? It is difficult to imagine there are none on this vast expanse of Islands.
 
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OurLadyofSorrows said:
It is difficult to imagine there are none
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All along I have assumed that many locations are so impoverished and/or populated that another person sick or counted as dead goes routinely unnoticed . I think it is safe to assume that much and the public tally available via internet doesn’t represent the actual number of cases, deaths or recoveries.

No one wants to spell out the reality.
A little less than 10% of the global population is 65 and older. That percentage changes per country…some have more…some less. The novel virus is a serious threat to the oldest, most sick and those with weakened immune systems. There are many causes of weakened immune systems in any age group…hence we have read of some younger people dying. Proper reporting would indicate the ages of all those who have died thus far. No one would be surprised that the average age of those who died are 65 or greater. The pieces of this puzzle aren’t all in…we can only speculate what has happened, is happening and will happen. …so much speculation still.

Also, societies and health care systems have adapted in extraordinary ways to support chronic age related illnesses and a very large host of other health care problems not related to age. The business of life is large and successful in ways yet a little ol’ novel virus comes along and ties the world in knots.
 
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10,000 or more die from the flu each year here in the US…seems like the word Pandemic has people in a panic…it means it’s worldwide…so is the flu…and it’ll probably kill way more than the Coronavirus…much of it is a media beat up…
 
Peebo said:
10,000 or more die from the flu each year here in the US…
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That’s because it has spread widely. The death rate from the flu is about 0.05% while the death rate from covid 19 is about 2.3%. That is 46 times more deadly than the flu for those infected. If covid 19 ever does become widespread it will kill many more times as many people as the flu. That justifies the huge effort to keep it from spreading. China (belatedly) closed down much of it’s economy to prevent the disease from spreading, and it appears their efforts are paying off. New infections in China have leveled off. But if they had not taken extreme measures, and if similar measures are not taken wherever this disease appears, we will not be so fortunate.
 
Information regarding the novel virus is still piece-meal so the media comes off as ‘beating it up’. It is inevitable at this point.

The already burdened healthcare system and resource availability is another serious concern.
 
The other issue that is often overlooked is the rate of serious illness. The numbers are still in flux, but it looks like 10-20% of Covid-19 cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. There are between 25 and 50 million cases of flu in the US each year. If Covid-19 turns out to be like the flu, that means (conservatively) 2 million hospitalizations, but maybe as many as 10 million. That would overflow the health system and shut down the hospitals - which is exactly what is happening in Wuhan.

None of that may come to pass, but it makes sense to take it seriously so we can work toward that goal. I don’t see overhyping of the issue, frankly. Public awareness and appropriate government response are needed.
 
Yeah, people forget that the flu is still pretty serious. I had it twice and it’s debilitating.
 
The difference is this is much more contageous from what we know now. The case in California also indicates this. This person never travelled outside the country or came in contact with an infected person.
This virus has double the death rate within China , according to official numbers. Which are questionable as being absolute minimum. As discussed countries like Indonesia are not making public any cases either.

This virus is now predicted to become a pandemic with people having no built immunity, where flu has been around and people do have some immunity to it.

It is imprudent to downplay this. Governments do not take extreme measures such as locking down cities and towns for flu.

We also do not have all the information filtering through to the media, case in point the facility I know that is in lockdown and with home quarantine due to staff coming into contact with an infected person.

Lets talk comparison figures once both hemispheres have been through winter and the virus has done its hit and run.
 
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They are throwing several drugs at it. From what I’ve read, there is little than anecdotal and inconclusive. There is one or more antivirals developed out of the SARS experience that might pan out as useful.
 
It appears that the Pope has not been feeling well and is being tested (that’s at about 15:42):

 
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OurLadyofSorrows said:
The difference is this is much more contageous from what we know now. The case in California also indicates this. This person never travelled outside the country or came in contact with an infected person.
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This is a biological impossibility, to get sick without any contact with the contagion

apnews.com

AP FACT CHECK: Democrats distort coronavirus readiness

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic presidential contenders are describing the federal infectious-disease bureaucracy as rudderless and ill-prepared for the coronavirus threat because of budget cuts and ham-handed leadership by President Donald Trump.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
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