The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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That’s hardly unique to “socialized medicine.” Corporatized medicine does the same thing. I’m citing two sources, one for the I-don’t-trust-Fox people and another for the I-don’t-trust-MSN people.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/h...e-orders-for-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB11HHB6

www.foxnews.com

Hospitals weigh blanket DNR orders for coronavirus patients amid equipment shortages: report

As hospitals across the country face shortages of personal protective equipment due to surges of coronavirus patients, health care professionals are reportedly discussing the possibility of a do not resuscitate policy for infected patients to mitigate the risks for hospital workers.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
Theo520 said:
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7_Sorrows:
When did it start in Washington state @Theo520
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Our first case was announced on Jan 21
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Wow! So Washington has been going through this for about 9-10 weeks then.
 
California first announcement was also in January.

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

Note this chart carefully. It is essentially repeating what the Italians found. That 98.28% of deaths included an underlying condition. That just 3 of 635 deaths of 75 and over persons had no co-morbidities.

Which begs the question: did these people die of Covid-19 or did they die with it? Makes a big difference. Note on this cart that underlying conditions were listed: diabetes, lung disease, cancer, immunodeficiency, heart disease, hypertension, asthma, kidney disease and GI/liver disease. My own uneducated guess is that obesity is involved in most of these conditions.

Let’s phrase it another way: people tend not to die of this if they have no underlying conditions. But we’ve been led by the constant prattle of fear that we are all in deep danger.

So we have been induced into accepting a deep recession with its attendant jobless claims and food bank lines for a virus that mostly only kills the most vulnerable over 45 year old persons.

If we go on with this to the end of April, we’re inducing the new Great Depression. 30% of businesses closing will never come back. With changes to consumer behavior that will last for decades. With the constant prattle of fear almost guaranteeing that even if bars and restaurants do reopen, the paranoia will lead to these places going out of business anyway because too few people will want to be within 6’ of another person.

This threatens to be a problem that will not go away for a generation. When the original Great Depression came through, it altered behavior for nearly 50 years. This right now isn’t that bad. Yet. But it will if we don’t restart right now.

Further, the collapse in health care is nearly guaranteed to occur with the new Great Depression. A demand spike into collapsing employment in the sector will lead to no people taking care of you which means people will die of ordinary heart attacks.

Next month will print 10+ million jobs lost. It could print as high as 20 million. Get that through your thick skulls: as bad as the disease is: the Great Depression cure is far worse. We must reopen the economy now with measures for mitigating steps for those who are at high risk. With masks to everyone that wants them. Let the people back out of their homes and just accept that we will have to allow the virus to run through our population.
 
Yes, better a scheme is created that supports the isolation of people with underlying conditions, give them a welfare check and food deliveries while the virus builds herd immunity in the rest of the population.
 
So no reopening after 15 days, eh? This right here from Denninger (emphasis his):
How’s that working out?

They torched your business while you stood by and watched, waving at them because they promised you it would be ok.

Congratulations.

Oh, and how long before something really important breaks?

You know, like the little things that make the water flow out of the tap, your sewer work so it doesn’t back up into the house, and the electricity is in your outlets so your refer, your stove and your furnace all function?

Yeah, we know where all the interconnections are. We have this folks – trust us, we’re from the government. Just like all those small businesses were well-served by that same trust.

Oh, and there wouldn’t be something important that, oh, a nuclear plant might need, right? Naw, that could never happen. Don’t worry, if you wind up glowing in the dark they’ll apologize.

This is the same government that put up a “flatten the curve” chart, along with a scold group with a strikingly similar model on the Internet, scaring governors into locking down their states with a curve that only went out three months because if you went further you’d see the monster spike in coronavirus cases of almost exactly the same size when the lockdowns are released – the same spike that would occur if you did nothing.

You know, the spike that they said was going to kill everyone?

It’s still there – they just didn’t bother using a long enough piece of paper so you don’t see it. They know it’s there – but if they showed you that you would have never put up with this bull** in the first place.**

They know that too.
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From that article, this relevant quote (emphasis mine):
“The idea that normal life can resume in two to three months without having a huge wave in infections — there is just no science behind that,” Pegden said in a Tribune-Review interview.

Their research concludes that models claiming social distancing will flatten the curve in as little as two months are flawed.

They predict that without additional interventions, including additional ventilators — and a vaccine — the pandemic will return with a vengeance the moment society resumes normal activity — regardless of how long a lockdown lasts.

“The duration of containment efforts does not matter, if transmission rates return to normal when they end, and mortality rates have not improved,” they write. “This is simply because as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all.”
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tl;dr from the last post:

we are going to get hammered no matter what. Restart the economy now before the damage to it gets out of control. What’s worse is they know it, they’re just too scared to tell us so they’ll let Fauci and his ilk lead us off the cliff instead. Restart the economy.

An appropriate closing quote lifted from Denninger (emphasis his):
We must overcome the fear; we must stare it down and power through it. We have no choice.
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Zzyzx_Road said:
tl;dr from the last post:

we are going to get hammered no matter what. Restart the economy now before the damage to it gets out of control. What’s worse is they know it, they’re just too scared to tell us so they’ll let Fauci and his ilk lead us off the cliff instead. Restart the economy.

An appropriate closing quote lifted from Denninger (emphasis his):
We must overcome the fear; we must stare it down and power through it. We have no choice.
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But should we just throw our hands up and let it happen? I mean Even during the influenza of 1918 Quarantine’s were put in place and places that did received fewer deaths. Here in New Zealand we have 1 death with nearly 1000 cases, we have been in lockdown for over a week and a half and things are well controlled. The reason the US is the worst hit by this virus in terms of daily cases and death toll is because you were/are the most complacent.

Italy is already starting to see a reduction in cases due to it’s lockdown and soon deaths will follow. Yes everyone is worried about a second wave but remember vaccine’s are in the making and we just need to minimize things until we get a vaccine. Pro life means putting lives first. The economy is not number 1. Life is
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Are going to get hammered?

If you are still expecting that, what is going on right now?

Yes stare the virus in the face, that wont stop it, that is inaction
 
www.theatlantic.com

Get Used to It: This Lockdown Won’t Be the Last

New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single round of constraints won’t be enough to beat the pandemic.
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com

“The suppression-and-lift strategy is the most talked about amongst my ilk and in governments all over the world,” said Leung, who is also the dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong. “You would need to keep on these control measures to varying degrees until one of two things happen: One, is there is natural immunity by active infection and recovery, or there is sufficiently wide availability of an effective vaccine administered to at least half the population, to create the same effective herd immunity. These are the only two ways of going about it.” Leung added that we’ll go through “several cycles” of tightenings and easings “before we will have resolution.”
 
There are some rather odd anomalies with the data available from various sources.

Take, for example, the projections from IHME.

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org

For April 2 (as a completed day) the numbers were

Projected beds = 135 463
ICU beds = 26 370
Ventilators =21 097

Yet, the COVID Tracking project has current use…

Hospitalized = 19 926 (Edit: Revised down to 18998 at 4/04 00:44 ET)
ICU beds = 4 686
Ventilators = 70

NOTE: There is a disclaimer on the Tracking Project data that a great deal of the data is missing, but even so where it is available the projected numbers on the IHME seem overblown.

For individual states where the data is available and highly graded for reliability the discrepancies are puzzling and show the estimates are 3 to 10 times higher than what is actually taking place.

New York

IHME Projections (April 2)
All beds = 56 183
ICU beds = 13 010
Ventilators = 8673

Covid Tracking Project (Apr 2)

All beds = 14 810
ICU beds = 3731
Ventilators = N/A

Added Note: We can reasonably estimate the number of ventilators in use as 66% of the ICU beds (following the IHME ratio.) That would mean, about 2500 ventilators are in use in NY. Still far less than 8673.

Minnesota

IHME Projections (April 2)
All beds = 705
ICU beds = 355
Ventilators = 116

Covid Tracking Project (Apr 2)

All beds = 86
ICU beds = 40
Ventilators = N/A

Added Note: Estimate for ventilators 66% of 40 ICU beds = ~26

Rhode Island

IHME Projections (April 2)
All beds = 234
ICU beds = 44
Ventilators = 35

Covid Tracking Project (Apr 2)

All beds = 72
ICU beds = 14
Ventilators = 6

Added Note: 66% of 14 would equal about 10, yet the actual use in RI is < 43%. That proportion would reduce NY’s total use of ventilators to about 1600 and Minnesota’s to ~17
 
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Paddy1989 said:
Here in New Zealand we have 1 death with nearly 1000 cases, we have been in lockdown for over a week and a half and things are well controlled. The reason the US is the worst hit by this virus in terms of daily cases and death toll is because you were/are the most complacent.
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And here in Australia the lockdowns seem to be working. The increase in cases are falling. Might even be in double figures today.

But I am seriously concerned about the delays in the US about getting anywhere near the level of control you need to get on top of this. I actually think you’ve left it too late and your deaths will be north of 250,000.

I can see a position where places like NZ and Australia will drop to a few isolated cases while it rages in places like the UK and the US. We’ll simply isolate from the rest of the world until the vaccine is ready. Nobody comes in. Nobody goes out.
 
Paddy and freddy, it would be prudent to leave the pats on the back until the end. This is just the beginning.
 
OurLadyofSorrows said:
Paddy and freddy, it would be prudent to leave the pats on the back until the end. This is just the beginning.
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What I’m suggesting is that those who are behind the curve take note of the places that are doing relatively well and why that might be so.

We are lucky down here because there is a reasonable amount of room available. And I don’t mean lots of desert and bush. I mean we generally don’t live as the Italians and the French do. You don’t look to buy a house in Paris or Rome. It’s generally apartment living. So I guess there’s not such a feeling of being stir crazy here. It’s easier to stay at home if you have a reasonable amount of space and a garden. And even more so in NZ.

So I appreciate it’s harder in New York or Paris to do the same. So we’re not congratulating ourselves on doing this better than anyone else. Paddy and I are just luckier living where we live. If you live in rural America you might do ok. But if you live in San Fran or NY then you need to buckle up and work at this.

I was in Delhi and Bombay a couple of years ago. They will not be able to cope. Period. When it takes off in India and Pakistan it will decimate the population. And I mean that literally. It will take out 1 in 10. And THEN you can start to worry…
 
Freddy said:
What I’m suggesting is that those who are behind the curve take note of the places that are doing relatively well and why that might be so.
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Saying a country is doing relatively well should be left to the end of the pandemic,
It is early days.
Australia and NZ have their fair share of hi rise poverty and homelessness. Most in Aus live on the edges of the continent. Aus is struggling hard to keep the virus out of the middle of the country and indigenous populations.
Freddy said:
And THEN you can start to worry…
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Worry now, look at what is happening. Ecuador is not even collecting or burying its dead. They are being left in the streets.
 
Ecuador doesn’t have nukes…

This is mostly just a medical problem at the moment. Let’s hope it doesn’t become political.
 
OurLadyofSorrows said:
Paddy and freddy, it would be prudent to leave the pats on the back until the end. This is just the beginning.
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I’m not saying it’s over and we will get away easily, far from it, i’m simply saying that being complacent cost lives. When you have politicians arguing that the economy is number 1 and that human lives should revolve around it i find that hard to accept thats all. To such people life is cheap.

The amount of comments on social media from people coming out with things like, “oh well survival of the fittest” or" who cares, people die from other tragedies everyday"… Some people just don’t care
 
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