The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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Ridgerunner said:
I saw on tv where some five million residents have left Wuhan for other parts of China or the world. I doubt there have been so many carriers as that represents in the history of the world except perhaps for the Black Death. Imagine how many exposures would result from even a half million scattering out from the epicenter.
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First off, what makes you think they are carriers and not people who aren’t infected and didn’t want to get infected? In other words, what percentage of the 5 million who fled Wuhan were you estimating had contracted the illness without symptoms? It is reasonable to believe some were carriers, but not really reasonable to believe that they all were.

Second, every year in the United States alone the CDC estimates that between 9 and 45 million people contract influenza. Depending on the year, it is estimated that 12,000 – 61,000 have died of influenza in the US every year since 2010. Worldwide, the figure is estimated at 1 billion infections, 3 to 5 million severe cases, and 300,000 to 500,000 deaths every year. The highest estimates I have heard for likely infections with coronavirus 2019-nCoV, including asymptomatic people, is 100,000 so far. It will undoubtedly get worse before it gets better, but so far it is not the flu. (Severity of 2019-nCoV ranges all the way from barely noticeable to deadly.)

The Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918 caused illness in 500 million people–about 1/3 of people living at the time–and killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people, about 3% of the world’s population.

According to fairly recent estimates, between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year if deaths due to pandemics are not counted.


If you’re taking precautions against influenza, that’s likely to be the same things needed to lower your risk of contracting 2019-nCoV. The good news is that although 2019-nCoV is spreading faster than the SARS corona virus of 2002, it is also believed to have a far lower fatality rate than SARS.

www.businessinsider.com

The new coronavirus has killed nearly 3 times as many people in 8 weeks as SARS did in 8 months. Here's how the 2 outbreaks compare.

SARS killed 774 people between November 2002 and July 2003. More than 2,100 people have died from the new Wuhan coronavirus since December.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

There are not yet any cases of person-to-person spread taking place within the United States. Still, it is definitely flu season, and observing hand-washing and other protocols to prevent the spread of influenza would also help to prevent the spread of 2019-nCoV, should it enter the US community.
 
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OurLadyofSorrows said:
There is in Japan, Vietnam and Germany though.
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Yes, and if it hasn’t happened yet it is pretty much inevitable, because a lot of people who are infected feel mild or even no symptoms.

Just to clarify: I’m not at all saying we don’t need to be concerned about 2019-nCoV. I’m saying we ought to be more concerned than we are about the seasonal influenza viruses. Even if 2019-nCoV never spreads into the community here, we would almost certainly save lives of people vulnerable to influenza if we acted as if 2019-nCoV were already here. I’m having a hard time getting over the habit of itching my nose and touching my face, but that is one of the ways these things spread.

It’s kind of gross to think about, but while over 9 out of 10 Americans say it is important to wash hands after using the toilet, only 2/3 actually do so. Of those who do wash their hands, the average time spent in one study was about 6 seconds. (Only half of the men observed actually used soap!) It takes at least 15-20 seconds with soap to do a competent job, something only 5% of those observed in a Michigan State University study actually did.
(https://msutoday.msu.edu/_/pdf/assets/2013/hand-washing-study.pdf)

Studies if preschools have shown communicable diseases were cut in half just by having the children wash their hands properly immediately after they arrived at school and immediately before going home.

The use of hand sanitizer also takes real rubbing and ought to take 20 seconds or more, too.

This is the advice from the CDC on preventing illness by forming good handwashing habits:
https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/hygiene/hand/handwashing.html
  • Before, during, and after preparing food
  • Before eating food
  • Before and after caring for someone at home who is sick with vomiting or diarrhea
  • Before and after treating a cut or wound
  • After using the toilet
  • After changing diapers or cleaning up a child who has used the toilet
  • After blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing
  • After touching an animal, animal feed, or animal waste
  • After handling pet food or pet treats
  • After touching garbage
Yes, if you blow your nose, cough or sneeze at Mass, you ought to excuse yourself and go wash before you touch anything.

Considering how many people don’t do any of this in spite of knowing better, it makes sense that some parishes have seats set aside for the most vulnerable to sit and make it a year-around practice to distribute Holy Communion to the people sitting in those sections first.
 
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PetraG said:
Yes, and if it hasn’t happened yet it is pretty much inevitable, because a lot of people who are infected feel mild or even no symptoms.
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Yes it has happened in several countries, it will continue to happen. So we know this can happen.
I think by the end of this week the real potential of this virus will become obvious.
The thing with this virus is it is contagious in the incubation stage, a person is quite well and can still share his or her corona virus around, showing no symptoms wont help the cause in this case.
 
OurLadyofSorrows said:
Yes it has happened in several countries, it will continue to happen. So we know this can happen.
I think by the end of this week the real potential of this virus will become obvious.
The thing with this virus is it is contagious in the incubation stage, a person is quite well and can still share his or her corona virus around, showing no symptoms wont help the cause in this case.
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The same is true for influenza, though. It is an annual killer that we take too much for granted. We don’t know that 2019-nCoV is here (in the community). We know that influenza and pneumonia and other serious diseases are here, though.

The indications are that 2019-nCoV does not pose a threat to life to most of the people it infects, provided that those with serious symptoms seek prompt medical attention–that is, that the fatality rate will be far lower than for SARS. I hope that proves true, but only time will tell. You are right that we would be wise to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

This brings up another matter: younger people who don’t think they can die from diseases like pneumonia if they live in the United States. That’s only true if you seek the medical attention that is available in the United States. These are very serious diseases, and as you point out they need to be taken seriously. That’s true whether or not a new one is going around, though. The old “boring” ones are still plenty dangerous.

You’re right about this, too: from what I gather, 2019-nCoV has spread as far in about a month as SARS spread in more like 5 months. It looks like a fast mover.

I hope I have not sounded as if it isn’t serious when I point out that the diseases we may be taking for granted are already real, present and very serious threats.
 
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About eating live mice i think it is a hoax. I sae that video. Sometimes people send around these shocking videos to reinforce misconceptions about certain groups of people. Its true that some in the regions eat weird animals, but not everybody and perhaps even the minority. If were going to criticize animal cruelty and all that then we shouldnt be eating animals at all. Im no vegetarian and i like my meat, so

And yes the incubation period is long so ppl can look and feel okay but they are already carrying the virus. I think the countried werent correct in evacuating their citizens from wuhan because by then they might be carriers and they ar ebringing it back to their home country. Shrugs
 
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PetraG said:
You’re right about this, too: from what I gather, 2019-nCoV has spread as far in about a month as SARS spread in more like 5 months. It looks like a fast mover.
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That is the real issue I think, several countries are starting to voice possible pandemic. Australia is evacuating its people from Wuhan and putting them on an island off the mainland for quarantine. That hit the news along with the Melbourne, Australia, reproduction of the virus.
I have not heard what USA and the other evacuating countries are doing as far as quarantine goes yet but imagine it will be very similar.
 
After I finished laughing I had to go figure out how it was named. It was alread the name for a classification.
Wikipedia:
Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans, the virus causes respiratory infections which are typically mild including the common cold but rarer forms like SARS and MERS can be lethal. In cows and pigs they may cause diarrhea, while in chickens it can cause an upper respiratory disease. There are no vaccines or antiviral drugs that are approved for prevention or treatment.

Coronaviruses are viruses in the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae in the family Coronaviridae , in the order Nidovirales.[4][5] Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses with a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome and with a nucleocapsid of helical symmetry. The genomic size of coronaviruses ranges from approximately 26 to 32 kilobases, the largest for an RNA virus.

The name “coronavirus” is derived from the Latin corona , meaning crown or halo , which refers to the characteristic appearance of the virus particles (virions): they have a fringe reminiscent of a royal crown or of the solar corona.
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So there you have it, SARS from years before was also a Coronavirus.
 
PetraG said:
This is the advice from the CDC on preventing illness by forming good handwashing habits:
Keeping Hands Clean | Handwashing | Hygiene | Healthy Water | CDC
  • Before, during, and after preparing food
  • Before eating food
  • Before and after caring for someone at home who is sick with vomiting or diarrhea
  • Before and after treating a cut or wound
  • After using the toilet
  • After changing diapers or cleaning up a child who has used the toilet
  • After blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing
  • After touching an animal, animal feed, or animal waste
  • After handling pet food or pet treats
  • After touching garbage
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People think taking these precautions means you’re a germophobe. No!
It astounds me when people say they have a good immune system or they’re not afraid of germs, etc.
They’re measures to prevent others from getting sick. Hand washing isn’t about oneself, it’s about others!
 
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PetraG said:
  • Before, during, and after preparing food
  • Before eating food
  • Before and after caring for someone at home who is sick with vomiting or diarrhea
  • Before and after treating a cut or wound
  • After using the toilet
  • After changing diapers or cleaning up a child who has used the toilet
  • After blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing
  • After touching an animal, animal feed, or animal waste
  • After handling pet food or pet treats
  • After touching garbage
Yes, if you blow your nose, cough or sneeze at Mass, you ought to excuse yourself and go wash before you touch anything.
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After loading washing machine with laundry
 
losangeles.cbslocal.com

Plane From Wuhan, China Slated To Arrive At Ontario Airport Being Diverted To March Air Reserve Base

China has reported at least 130 deaths from the virus and another 4,500 confirmed cases. In the United States, five people have been diagnosed, including two in Southern California — one in Los Angeles County and the other in Orange County.
losangeles.cbslocal.com losangeles.cbslocal.com

Originally, the plane was going to stop in Alaska and then proceed to Ontario for screening/ quarantine of passengers. Now they are going to California instead of Ontario.

Praying they all test negative.
 
Found these short, informative videos that may be of interest.




 
PetraG said:
First off, what makes you think they are carriers and not people who aren’t infected and didn’t want to get infected? In other words, what percentage of the 5 million who fled Wuhan were you estimating had contracted the illness without symptoms?
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I have no idea. However, it’s reasonable to believe, as you say, that some are carriers. I recall reading that people fleeing the Black Death in the Middle Ages were one of the big reasons it spread so widely and so rapidly.

One of the problems with the recent coronavirus is that nobody really knows the death rate because of the reticence of the Chinese government to tell the truth. Another is that the long period between infection and onset masks numbers, and lack of treatment might result in a higher death rate than is known because it resembles other diseases. If someone dies of an upper respiratory disease in some village to which a resident of Wuhan fled, was it coronavirus, pneumonia, or the flu? Finally, it is said to mutate rapidly, so is it always recognized and could it turn suddenly more deadly somewhere?
 
Don’t be so quick to dismiss it. 🙂 After all, if you drink enough Corona beer, it will give you a howling headache the next morning. That’s one of the symptoms of Coronavirus. 🙂
 
Ridgerunner said:
I have no idea. However, it’s reasonable to believe, as you say, that some are carriers.
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Not that I am agreeing or disagreeing with you, but upon reading that I instantly think of “Typhoid Mary.”

en.wikipedia.org

Mary Mallon - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Mary Mallon (September 23, 1869 – November 11, 1938), also known as Typhoid Mary , was an Irish cook. She was the first person in the United States identified as an asymptomatic carrier of the pathogen associated with typhoid fever. She was presumed to have infected 51 people, three of whom died, over the course of her career as a cook.[1] She was twice forcibly isolated by public health authorities and died after a total of nearly three decades in isolation.
 
OK but this isn’t a total mystery disease. There are people outside of China diagnosed with it, and they’re not automatic ICU admissions.

I keep trying to make the same point but here it goes again: the annual run of influenza is a bad disease that kills thousands of people in the US every year. Even for the young and strong, it is a miserable disease—I mean real influenza, not every little bug that people write off with “I had the flu.”

Go to the CDC website, our CDC, and you can keep up on what is new. They’ll also remind you to wash your hands and if you’re sick to stay away from other people. It looks as if corona virus is very contagious but if we get serious about not spreading the flu it will go a long ways towards containment of this virus, too.
 
This isn’t worth a new thread, but the FDA has warned the maker of Purell to stop claiming that their product prevents the spread of bacteria and viruses.

https://www.fda.gov/inspections-com...g-letters/gojo-industries-inc-599132-01172020
“Your labeling claims that PURELL® Healthcare Advanced Hand Sanitizers are effective in preventing disease or infection from pathogens such as Ebola, MRSA, VRE, norovirus, flu, and Candida auris, and in preventing the spread of infection, go beyond merely describing the general intended use of a topical antiseptic as set forth in the above-referenced relevant rulemakings.”

The CDC writes:
CDC recommends washing hands with soap and water whenever possible because handwashing reduces the amounts of all types of germs and chemicals on hands. But if soap and water are not available, using a hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol can help you avoid getting sick and spreading germs to others. The guidance for effective handwashing and use of hand sanitizer in community settings was developed based on data from a number of studies.


This is a good explanation of the basics of hand-washing. Definitely, it is a great idea to have hand sanitizer with you in case you need to sanitize your hands and no way to do it is provided. Having said that, when you have the option of washing with soap and water instead of using hand sanitizer, opt for soap and water because it actually removes foreign substances on your hands.

And please: at least 20 seconds of serious rubbing–start your counting after you get the soap on every part of your hand. Then rinse well.

As for hand sanitizer, make sure you know the right amount for the product you’re using. A dollop the size of a quarter is typical. Again, it ought to take 20 seconds or more to rub it dry.

Ritual hand-washing is for ritual situations. Real hand-washing takes more than dipping your fingers in water. It could also slow down diseases that pose a real threat to the lives of vulnerable people, costs countless hours of productive time each year and just makes those struck with communicable diseases miserable.
 
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