Trump Massive Rally in Washington DC (Nov. 14th) (Tens of Thousands Gather)

[Shakuhachi]

So you defend Proud Boys?

 

[sealabeag]

This is definitely some category of fallacy, I’m just not sure which one.

 

[Beryllos]

How did so many of the late mail in ballots go so overwhelmingly for Biden? In one county in Georgia, for instance, the mail in ballots were 87% for Biden. That sort of a majority should make anybody suspicious, I don’t care who you voted for.

That’s easy. Trump actively discouraged mail-in votes. Biden strongly promoted it as a safer way to vote.

 

[VeryBlessed]

That’s easy. Trump actively discouraged mail-in votes. Biden strongly promoted it as a safer way to vote.

I’m sure that’s at least part of the reason. But 87%?

 

[LilyM]

Somewhere between “the whole thing is a fraud” and “it’s the most secure election in history”, there are some troubling aspects of this election that need discussing. For me at least an important question remains unanswered. How did so many of the late mail in ballots go so overwhelmingly for Biden? In one county in Georgia, for instance, the mail in ballots were 87% for Biden. That sort of a majority should make anybody suspicious, I don’t care who you voted for. Maybe it is legit. But an advantage of that magnitude should make us all wonder how it could happen.

One side is rushing me to accept the results, and the other side is rushing me to think the whole thing a sham. Both extremes are eliminating any possibility of the discussion we need to have.

For starters, Biden has been consistently telling supporters to vote early and by mail as a COVID safety measure, and because its easier than lining up fr hours,.

All the while Trump.has for ages been telling HIS supporters to avoid doing so as postal votes are supposedly less safe. And has really been ramming home this points.

So no, not terribly surprising really.

Truos supporters tend to REALLY listen to him about things Iike that … he touts some miracle cure for COVID and there is massive rush on it …

 

[VeryBlessed]

Why are you letting this compulsive liar [Donald Trump] influence your judgment?

He’s not. I’m a math guy. I’m finding the late numbers just shocking. Because in taking a random sample from a population that is largely divided 50-50, 87% stretches the bounds of believability for many of us. But it’s shut down comments like yours that are proving my point. I want to have an honest discussion about how the late returns were overwhelmingly Biden’s. And saying Biden encouraged mail-ins, and Trump didn’t, to me, cannot possibly account for advantages of this size. I could see even 70-30. But 87-13?

 

[Rau]

If I provided you evidence of voter fraud would you accept that it existed or have you already made your mind up on this, evidence or no evidence?

There is perhaps always a little fraud in elections. But so far, the courts have found the claims laughable. If the fraud is on a scale sufficient to change the outcome, you’d know about it!

 

[LilyM]

Shakuhachi:

Why are you letting this compulsive liar [Donald Trump] influence your judgment?

Because in taking a random sample from a population that is largely divided 50-50, 87% stretches the bounds of believability for many of us. But it’s shut down comments like yours that are proving my point. I want to have an honest discussion about how the late returns were overwhelmingly Biden’s. And saying Biden encouraged mail-ins, and Trump didn’t, to me, cannot possibly account for advantages of this size. I could see even 70-30. But 87-13?

Dude had lawsuits going to try to get postal votes in particular kicked out. Makes perfect sense his supporters wouldn’t want theirs to be among them.

 

[Beryllos]

Because in taking a random sample from a population that is largely divided 50-50, 87% stretches the bounds of believability for many of us.

But it is not random sample. It’s a self-selected sample. People opted in or out along party lines.

 

[Shakuhachi]

But it’s shut down comments like yours that are proving my point.

My apology.

 

[meltzerboy2]

People rally for a cause. In this case, it appears the cause is to overturn the legitimate winner of the election. Do you believe that is a fair and just cause for our country to pursue, given that its pursuit is a danger to our national security both at home and abroad?

 

[VeryBlessed]

Honestly, what you’re saying may be completely true, maybe it is all attributable to lawsuits and a not completely random sample. But I’m still shocked by the magnitude of the difference of those late numbers. Statistically, it’s an amazing thing. I’d feel much more at peace if the late results were more consistent with the early results.

 

[Dan123]

How did so many of the late mail in ballots go so overwhelmingly for Biden? In one county in Georgia, for instance, the mail in ballots were 87% for Biden.

They came from Clayton County, a heavily democratic area. Hillary won >83% of the votes in 2016, was that suspicious? Obama won >84% of the vote in 2012, did that stretch credibility? Obama won 83% in 2008, rampant voter fraud?

In that context does 87% seem like an issue giving how polarized politics are right now?

 

[pnewton]

How did so many of the late mail in ballots go so overwhelmingly for Biden? In one county in Georgia, for instance, the mail in ballots were 87% for Biden.

But they did. If you are a “math guy” you should know counting trumps speculation. Fact trumps theory. Besides, Georgia is being re-counted. “How” is not relevant, though there are some reasons that would affect it.

 

[Gorgias]

Well we’ve got another super spreader event.

I was thinking that, too. Over and above that, we’re now within the 14-day self-quarantine timeframe for Thanksgiving. So now, for everyone at the march who came in contact with others from different states, they’re all going to be disregarding the quarantine… and potentially bringing COVID home to their families. Happy Thanksgiving, ya’ll!

For me at least an important question remains unanswered. How did so many of the late mail in ballots go so overwhelmingly for Biden?

Alternately, how did so many of the in-person ballots go for Trump? Simple: Trump was advising his supporters to go in person to the polls, and Democrats were advising mail-in ballots. So, the “late ballots” were mail ballots, and mail ballots were always expected to go Democratic.

 

[Wesrock]

Honestly, what you’re saying may be completely true, maybe it is all attributable to lawsuits and a not completely random sample. But I’m still shocked by the magnitude of the difference of those late numbers. Statistically, it’s an amazing thing. I’d feel much more at peace if the late results were more consistent with the early results.

Trump: Mail in ballots are the devil.

Most Trump supporters: Okay

Most Biden supporters: Yeah that’s ridiculous we’re voting by mail.

And a lot of these weren’t late ballots. Places like PA spent days after election day counting ballots received long before election day. Republicans pushed hard in the courts of many states to stop any mail in ballot counting until election day, meaning in person ballots would be counted first. And then they used this to spin the narrative that only votes counted on November 3rd were legitimate.

 

[VeryBlessed]

If you are a “math guy” you should know counting trumps speculation.

As a math guy I am also trained to be more and more suspicious of numbers that are very far outside the norm. We are all suspicious of extreme outliers.

 

[Dan123]

As a math guy I am also trained to be more and more suspicious of numbers that are very far outside the norm. We are all suspicious of extreme outliers.

What’s the norm for that county? To help out I posted the numbers above, but feel free to look them up yourself.

 

[gam197]

VeryBlessed:

How did so many of the late mail in ballots go so overwhelmingly for Biden? In one county in Georgia, for instance, the mail in ballots were 87% for Biden.

But they did. If you are a “math guy” you should know counting trumps speculation. Fact trumps theory. Besides, Georgia is being re-counted. “How” is not relevant, though there are some reasons that would affect it.

Does that include the opt-out voters who receive ballots automatically from the state after being registered repeat, automatically registered at Dept of Motor Vehicles? Thiose that did not see the little opt-out square on their license - id card form.

They need to not just count but inspect these ballots to confirm they are legal citizens.

 

[VeryBlessed]

To help out I posted the numbers above, but feel free to look them up yourself.

No, that was helpful, thank you! That’s exactly the kind of detail I’m talking about, that we should discuss. And yet in all the battleground states, the late results were surprisingly inconsistent with the early results. It wasn’t just that one county, although perhaps that one county was the most extreme example. I was expecting a democratic advantage from late votes, just not one to this extent. But I’d like to see a state by state comparison of late results against early results, and some more in depth analysis of it, not just talking points.