Trump Massive Rally in Washington DC (Nov. 14th) (Tens of Thousands Gather)

[Dan123]

No, that was helpful, thank you! That’s exactly the kind of detail I’m talking about, that we should discuss. And yet in all the battleground states, the late results were surprisingly inconsistent with the early results. It wasn’t just that one county, although perhaps that one county was the most extreme example. I was expecting a democratic advantage from late votes, just not one to this extent. But I’d like to see a state by state comparison of late results against early results, and some more in depth analysis of it, not just talking points.

That’s fine but lets be clear, you were suspicious and a numbers guy but didn’t actually look into the numbers until I found them, in under 10 minutes.

There are several factors at play in a lot of this, democrats utilized mail in voting to a much higher degree than republicans; republican leadership sued to prevent mail in voted from being counted early which means the in-person voting skewed republican. Some areas have more voters per location and in most places if you’re in line at closing they have to let you vote, which would delay being able to box up the ballots. Those tend to be more densely populated areas, which also tend to skew democratic.

The thing is this was always expected. 538 and election officials, journalists, and so on all knew the early ballots would skew Republican and the late ones would skew Democratic. This was fully expected, the reasons were well known, but that doesn’t seem to matter much for a lot of people. Understanding is secondary to being upset.

Is there another county you’d like for us to work out together? Ideally we’d find one where the numbers were out of line with previous elections by a significant margin without a good reason.

 

[Dan123]

Hey Politico has us covered:

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/georgia/

Banks County went for trump 88.6%, fraud?

But more helpfully they do have a chart for any significant change as well, looks like some blue counties got a bit more blue, and some red counties got a bit less red.

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[pnewton]

We are all suspicious of extreme outliers.

Really? Because statistical anomalies can never exist? Like I said, they are recounting and data trumps theory. Always.

They need to not just count but inspect these ballots to confirm they are legal citizens.

Been done.

 

[gam197]

gam197:

They need to not just count but inspect these ballots to confirm they are legal citizens.

Been done.

No it has not been done. There are over 2 million new voters in the Georgia state election so the citizens of Georgia have a right to know if those voters who were automatically registered at the DMV are legal residents.

Did they see the opt-out square when they filled out their registration ID form?

 

[VeryBlessed]

Really? Because statistical anomalies can never exist?

Of course they can, but we scrutinize the outliers precisely because they are outliers. And that’s where Dan’s comments have been helpful.

 

[twf]

I know that no matter how many Republican officials validate the results, no matter how many judges validate the results… some in your camp will truly believe with all your hearts that widespread fraud occurred, that Biden stole the election…So what does it all mean other than talk and posts online? Are you leading a revolution? If not it’s all noise and ultimately meaningless.

 

[1ke]

For me at least an important question remains unanswered. How did so many of the late mail in ballots go so overwhelmingly for Biden?

Please define what you mean by “late mail in ballots”.

 

[gam197]

I know that no matter how many Republican officials validate the results, no matter how many judges validate the results… some in your camp will truly believe with all your hearts that widespread fraud occurred, that Biden stole the election, that Trump is still God’s anointed (despite his decades of manifest public sin- but ok), etc etc etc. So what does it all mean other than talk and posts online? Are you leading a revolution? If not it’s all noise and ultimately meaningless.

Not true, a few states is all they are asking for - Georgia to start with. Two million new voters registered automatically at DMV.

 

[Dan123]

No it has not been done. There are over 2 million new voters in the Georgia state election so the citizens of Georgia have a right to know if those voters who were automatically registered at the DMV are legal residents.

Do you have a resource for how this worked? All I’m seeing is that you have the option to register to vote when you perform certain actions like a license renewal at their DMV. I’m looking for information about whether they were automatically registered like you said or just given the option, and whether this was any different than registering normally, which would include eligibility verification. That’s why you register to vote, so they can verify eligibility before adding you to the rolls. A lot changed very quickly this year so fully expect there’s information I’m not finding. Appreciate any pointers you have.

NOTE: Found some information after posting this, reading it now

 

[Tis_Bearself]

Those ballots aren’t necessarily “late”. I submitted my ballot by drop box in mid-October and it was marked received on Oct. 19. They still haven’t counted it yet and there are a lot of other people from my state in the same boat. Our state has a vote tracker tool so you can see when they have actually counted your ballot by looking online. I’m pretty ticked off that it’s taking a whole month for them to count ballots (my state was allowed to start counting a whole month before election day but couldn’t release any results till after election day) and that they don’t seem to be doing it in any sort of date order, such as doing the ones submitted earlier first. Some people put in several ballots for a whole family in the drop box at once and some ballots got counted and others are still waiting, despite all being submitted at the same time. It’s a mess. I imagine it’s just as bad in every other state.

 

[1ke]

As a math guy I am also trained to be more and more suspicious of numbers that are very far outside the norm. We are all suspicious of extreme outliers.

As a math girl, I don’t understand why reasonable people don’t understand the facts of the way votes are counted.

In WI for example, mail in ballots could only start being counted on election day, and a county could not report their mail in ballots totals until ALL the mail in ballots were totaled. Hence the “mysterious” jump in Biden voted at 3 a.m. when Milwaukee county finished counting mail in ballots, and as required by law, reported their mail in ballots total all at once.

No mystery, no anomaly, no math issue. Election process working as designed.

 

[Dan123]

Alright after a few articles, this one was likely the best:

A record 7.6M voters are registered in Georgia for the 2020 election

I see 1 million new voters mentioned, some up to 1.4 but it includes people kicked off the voter rolls who then reregistered. I don’t see any suggestion that this is any different from registering to vote any other way, where eligibility would be determined when you register before adding you to the rolls.

Is there reason to think they skipped that for the DMV registrations specifically but did for other sources of registrations?

 

[gam197]

Do you have a resource for how this worked? All I’m seeing is that you have the option to register to vote when you perform certain actions like a license renewal at their DMV. I’m looking for information about whether they were automatically registered like you said or just given the option, and whether this was any different than registering normally, which would include eligibility verification. That’s why you register to vote, so they can verify eligibility before adding you to the rolls. A lot changed very quickly this year so fully expect there’s information I’m not finding. Appreciate any pointers you have

That is not what the official Georgia lecense form states. (Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.) (Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

 

[gam197]

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

The opt-out should not be on the license = ID form. form.

 

[Dan123]

Right, and? Non-citizens can get driver’s licenses/permits/id cards according to that. Why do you think, even if they didn’t decline to register to vote, that they’d be added to the voter rolls? Why would it work differently than if a non-citizen, or a felon, or someone underage, mailed in the voter registration? Just because someone submits a registration application, by mail, online, through DDS, doesn’t mean they’re added to the voter rolls.

 

[Dan123]

Here’s something to support your point though, to be fair:

Some state voters aren’t citizens

AJC Exclusive: For years, Georgia’s method of registering voters allowed some non-U.S. citizens to register and some to cast ballots.

www.ajc.com

Back in 2012 they had an issue where they weren’t verifying citizenship, only requiring a sworn statement. They seem to have fixed it for new voters since 2012 and now all applicants are checked.

 

[gam197]

Right, and? Non-citizens can get driver’s licenses/permits/id cards according to that. Why do you think, even if they didn’t decline to register to vote, that they’d be added to the voter rolls?

Of course the get ID cards. Also Foreign nationals are allowed drivers license even thought they are not citizens. Your are aware of that, correct.

To obtain an IDP from AAA, do the following: Complete the AAA IDP application. Visit your local AAA branch and bring the completed application; your valid US driver’s license ; two passport-sized photos of yourself; and cash, a check, or a credit card with which to pay the $20 fee.

 

[Dan123]

Of course the get ID cards. Also Foreign nationals are allowed drivers license even thought they are not citizens. Your are aware of that, correct.

I am, I guess I’m just not seeing the issue you are. You seem to be assuming if the ID is issued that they’re also added to the voter rolls. All it does is submit a registration, that doesn’t mean the registration is approved any more than your mailed application being accepted by the post office means it is. And Georgia in that last article I posted even stated they verify the citizenship of all applicants and no longer accept sworn statements since 2012. You think Georgia loosened the rules … in 2016 … to let a democrat flip the state 4 years later?

 

[gam197]

From your own article posted.

Now, Georgia officials are hoping that noncitizens will be purged from the voter rolls in a variety of ways.

Once that federal law takes effect, it will take DDS eight years to verify that all the people in its system are, in fact, citizens of this country.

And at the Secretary of State’s Office, if noncitizens who are currently registered to vote don’t get flagged by the jury duty reports — or are somehow reported to election officials — they can continue to vote in Georgia elections.

The jury reports really. The article is talking about the Federal Real ID program and everyone knows that the Real ID license has not been fully implemented and that is a major factor in this election.

 

[Dan123]

My article was from 2012. 8 years would be … now. And you were concerned about the 2 million (your number) new registrations.