Ukraine (cont.)

[josie_L]

The electoral analysis by USAID, Dec 2013, that I have posted before, indicated an equal split between resident Ukrainians wishing to be with Russia or the EU. Russia was the more prominent choice, up to 2012/mid-13 so I can only assume there are a lot of pro-Russian people living in Ukraine - in selective areas and possibly with dual citizenship. It is one of the problems, IMO, of peoples living together under a former regime that split up, where residents from both countries (Ukraine and Russia) had left to live in either country, under the former set-up i.e. they were still all under the same ‘roof’ so to speak and now they aren’t.

The survey you mentioned (which I believe was executed before December) does not state whether or not parts of Ukraine wanted to be subsumed by Russia (and if I’m not mistaken the survey question asked whether the people of Ukraine wanted closer ties with Europe or Russia, that is to say not exclusive economic ties with EU or Russia).

It would be difficult to garner a majority in Donetsk to secede if as Anastasia already indicated (with the poll) there is no majority to uphold it. This is probably the work of Russian provocateurs rather than homegrown Russian ethnics.

Moreover, the population of Ukraine consists mainly of ethnic Ukrainians with Russian ethnics being the second largest ethnic group in the Ukraine:

Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3%, Belarusian 0.6%, Moldovan 0.5%, Crimean Tatar 0.5%, Bulgarian 0.4%, Hungarian 0.3%, Romanian 0.3%, Polish 0.3%, Jewish 0.2%, other 1.8% (2001 census)

The fact that Crimea has already been annexed, what percentage of Russian ethnics subsides in the rest of the Ukraine, well, according to information gathered from Wikipedia, Donetsk does not have a Russian ethnic majority:

**While the majority of people in central and western Ukraine speak Ukrainian, a plurality of the residents of Donetsk are Russian-speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. According to 2001 population census,[28] Ukrainians are 56.9% of Donetsk oblast and Russians are 38.2%. The Russian language is dominant in Donbas: even the ethnic Ukrainians consider Russian as their first language.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk**

As such this whole situation in Donetsk will have to in order to survive the referendum, need the might of Russian military support (as in Crimea).

Here is a book on google that will help you further understand the demographics of the Ukraine:

books.google.ca/books?id=oLWeUoWEAGgC&pg=PA82&lpg=PA82&dq=demographics+of+Donetsk&source=bl&ots=zZk4OkZfsf&sig=OOuT5roRhRtVCn32YA6S479Q1_Q&hl=en&sa=X&ei=LtdCU663KeO0yAGlq4HwDA&ved=0CGAQ6AEwCjgK#v=onepage&q=demographics%20of%20Donetsk&f=false

 

[Ridgerunner]

There is some possibility the non-Russian part of Europe will act to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas. money.cnn.com/2014/03/31/news/economy/europe-russia-gas-fracking/index.html

Short term, Putin’s conquests are a major political gain for him with his countrymen. Longer term, if European dependence on Russian gas (and oil) is significantly reduced in the future, there are going to be some very disappointed Russian speakers who find themselves in a still-backward Russia living under a despotic oligarchy.

No doubt Putin knows all of that, and will additionally fund environmentalist luddites in western Europe and Poland. But he can’t conquer forever, and he knows it, which is why he’ll grab all he can very soon.

 

[pepipop]

The survey you mentioned (which I believe was executed before December) does not state whether or not parts of Ukraine wanted to be subsumed by Russia (and if I’m not mistaken the survey question asked whether the people of Ukraine wanted closer ties with Europe or Russia, that is to say not exclusive economic ties with EU or Russia).

It would be difficult to garner a majority in Donetsk to secede if as Anastasia already indicated (with the poll) there is no majority to uphold it. This is probably the work of Russian provocateurs rather than homegrown Russian ethnics.

Moreover, the population of Ukraine consists mainly of ethnic Ukrainians with Russian ethnics being the second largest ethnic group in the Ukraine:

The fact that Crimea has already been annexed, what percentage of Russian ethnics subsides in the rest of the Ukraine, well, according to information gathered from Wikipedia, Donetsk does not have a Russian ethnic majority:

As such this whole situation in Donetsk will have to in order to survive the referendum, need the might of Russian military support (as in Crimea).

Here is a book on google that will help you further understand the demographics of the Ukraine:

books.google.ca/books?id=oLWeUoWEAGgC&pg=PA82&lpg=PA82&dq=demographics+of+Donetsk&source=bl&ots=zZk4OkZfsf&sig=OOuT5roRhRtVCn32YA6S479Q1_Q&hl=en&sa=X&ei=LtdCU663KeO0yAGlq4HwDA&ved=0CGAQ6AEwCjgK#v=onepage&q=demographics%20of%20Donetsk&f=false

The current unrest is occurring in administrative states where the % of Russians are greater than in other primary administrative states, or Oblasts. Although all are part of Ukraine there is a greater % of Russians in several Oblasts to the East and South of the country. Each of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts has its own legislative and executive authority, most of which is subordinate to the central government authorities in Kiev. Each region is administered under laws passed by the Ukrainian government and the Constitution of Ukraine. Each region levies its own taxes and, in return, receive a portion of their budget from Kiev, which gives them a portion of the taxes they levy.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine

According to 2001 census the Russians are the largest ethnic group in Sevastopol (71.7%) and Autonomous republic of Crimea (59%), and also in some cities and raions: Donetsk (48.2%), Makiyivka (50.8%, Donetsk Oblast), Ternivka (52.9%, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Krasnodon (63.3%), Sverdlovsk (58.7%), Krasnodonskyi (51.7%) and Stanychno-Luhanskyi (61.1%) raions of Luhansk Oblast, Izmail (43.7%, Odessa oblast), Putyvlskyi Raion (51.6%, Sumy Oblast).[8]

 

[Ridgerunner]

According to 2001 census the Russians are the largest ethnic group in Sevastopol (71.7%) and Autonomous republic of Crimea (59%),

So, Russians were 59% of the population of Crimea, and yet 97% (we are assured) voted in the “referendum” to join Russia. And now, ethnic Ukrainians and Tatars are fleeing Crimea now that Russia has annexed it. Are we to believe the Ukrainians and Tatars voted to join Russia then skedaddled as soon as they saw what they had done?

Doesn’t even come close to passing the smell test.

 

[josie_L]

The current unrest is occurring in administrative states where the % of Russians are greater than in other primary administrative states, or Oblasts. Although all are part of Ukraine there is a greater % of Russians in several Oblasts to the East and South of the country. Each of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts has its own legislative and executive authority, most of which is subordinate to the central government authorities in Kiev. Each region is administered under laws passed by the Ukrainian government and the Constitution of Ukraine. Each region levies its own taxes and, in return, receive a portion of their budget from Kiev, which gives them a portion of the taxes they levy.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine

According to 2001 census the Russians are the largest ethnic group in Sevastopol (71.7%) and Autonomous republic of Crimea (59%), and also in some cities and raions: Donetsk (48.2%), Makiyivka (50.8%, Donetsk Oblast), Ternivka (52.9%, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Krasnodon (63.3%), Sverdlovsk (58.7%), Krasnodonskyi (51.7%) and Stanychno-Luhanskyi (61.1%) raions of Luhansk Oblast, Izmail (43.7%, Odessa oblast), Putyvlskyi Raion (51.6%, Sumy Oblast).[8]

The pro-Russians (they are probably Russian rather than Russian ethnics) in Donetsk declared the Donetsk oblast to be a republic, as such the information that I pulled from Wikipedia stands, i.e., they are NOT capable of winning a referendum, i.e., not without the support of Russian military (which is also how Crimea was annexed, but demographics are such that Ukrainians outstrip Russian ethnics):

While the majority of people in central and western Ukraine speak Ukrainian, a plurality of the residents of Donetsk are Russian-speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. According to 2001 population census,[28] Ukrainians are 56.9% of Donetsk oblast and Russians are 38.2%. The Russian language is dominant in Donbas: even the ethnic Ukrainians consider Russian as their first language.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk

 

[josie_L]

I found this information to be rather enlightening (and ironic):

The Donetsk People’s Republic (Russian: Донецкая народная республика, Donetskaya narodnaya respublika) is the name for a breakaway region declared on 7 April 2014, by around 100 activists[1][nb 1] currently occupying the Regional Administration Building in Donetsk, Ukraine.[2] The People’s Republic has not been recognized by any other state. The movement’s leader is the self-declared People’s Governor Pavel Gubarev, a former member of the neo-Nazi Russian National Unity paramilitary group who is currently arrested on charges of separatism.[3][4]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People’s_Republic

 

[pepipop]

So, Russians were 59% of the population of Crimea, and yet 97% (we are assured) voted in the “referendum” to join Russia. And now, ethnic Ukrainians and Tatars are fleeing Crimea now that Russia has annexed it. Are we to believe the Ukrainians and Tatars voted to join Russia then skedaddled as soon as they saw what they had done?

Doesn’t even come close to passing the smell test.

Crimeans, first and foremost, have for years wanted to be an independent republic. They knew it was never on the cards whilst part of Ukraine, they now have their wish. Hence the high voting numbers.

 

[josie_L]

Crimeans, first and foremost, have for years wanted to be an independent republic. They knew it was never on the cards whilst part of Ukraine, they now have their wish. Hence the high voting numbers.

There was definitely voter fraud involved, i.e., especially in Sevastopol (where the percentage of people who voted exceeded 100%), moreover, “93%” of those who voted were Russian ethnics, i.e., the Tatars and the Ukrainian ethnics boycotted the referendum for obvious ethical reasons. And again, if the Crimeans wanted an independent republic for years than they could have supported parties supporting unity with Russia, long before the fall of Yanukovych, i.e., the current Governor of Crimea was a member of a party that wanted said unity but only garnered 4% of the vote in 2010 (not 2012 as I mentioned earlier).

 

[Miserissima]

I read this thread every day; my tension runs high with this topic so I post sparingly now.

God bless the folks who foretold the chipping away at Ukraine’s east. I doubted it and didn’t want to believe it.

There is an amazing game of smoke and mirrors among the extremists (both sides), agitators, and planted ringers.

Funny thing about those who said the tire piles at Maidan were waiting to be burned in case of being overrun: the tire piles at Donetsk, conversely, are simply “barricades.” (Reminds me that the West would call the Chechens “rebels,” a term with which the US identified, until we wanted to go into Afghanistan. After we gained Russia’s blessing, the Chechens were retermed “insurgents,” but I digress: let the language games carry on.)

The masks and riot gear used by pro Russians along the border cities aren’t under as much question as what was provided to the Ukrainians last month.

Luhansk experienced firebombing, but went along with a “unanimous” vote to become part of Russia. However, Donetsk and Luhansk are less than 39 percent “ethnically Russian.”

I’m not understanding all of these places that recently claim independence from Ukraine, although the newer leaders are publicly calling for Russian peacekeepers to come in – calling on Putin by name.

First, if these regions truly want to be independent, they would appeal to the international community, not Russia.

Second, if Putin sends in “peacekeepers,” then any acts of aggression against them are grounds for “self defense tactics,” not considered true acts of war. Again, masterfully played, Comrade Putin, effectively neutering any movement by Kiev.

Would someone again kindly explain how Crimea and now border cities are gaining true Republican Independence by becoming part of Russia? I’m still not understanding how this package is being sold to me.

 

[Miserissima]

Crimeans, first and foremost, have for years wanted to be an independent republic. They knew it was never on the cards whilst part of Ukraine, they now have their wish. Hence the high voting numbers.

Was there a third option on the referendum for Crimea to become its own nation?

 

[Ridgerunner]

Crimeans, first and foremost, have for years wanted to be an independent republic. They knew it was never on the cards whilst part of Ukraine, they now have their wish. Hence the high voting numbers.

If their wish was to be independent, they sure blew it. They’re part of Russia now.

 

[josie_L]

There was definitely voter fraud involved, i.e., especially in Sevastopol (where the percentage of people who voted exceeded 100%), moreover, “93%” of those who voted were Russian ethnics, i.e., the Tatars and the Ukrainian ethnics boycotted the referendum for obvious ethical reasons. And again, if the Crimeans wanted an independent republic for years than they could have supported parties supporting unity with Russia, long before the fall of Yanukovych, i.e., the current Governor of Crimea was a member of a party that wanted said unity but only garnered 4% of the vote in 2010 (not 2012 as I mentioned earlier).

Oh, I just realized my mistake, i.e., independence does not mean unity with Russia (pepipop through me off).

 

[Seamus_L]

Several news reports that Kharkiv is now also declaring it’s independence from the government in Kiev.

 

[Miserissima]

Several news reports that Kharkiv is now also declaring it’s independence from the government in Kiev.

Less than six hours ago I read that Kharkiv thwarted building occupations by pro Russian forces. I’ll bet they’ll also unanimously vote to be “independent” from Kiev, and publicly implore Russia for peacekeeping troops to be.quartered there. What a sham.

 

[josie_L]

I think I figured this out: The Russians are waiting at the Ukrainian border because it knows that Russian provocateurs are agitating and seceding areas with a large quantity of Russian ethnics, and by doing this they are assured of a response from the Ukrainian government who they expect or will even force, through the provocateurs, to use aggressive tactics that will provide the pretext for another invasion by Putin to protect Russian ethnics.

 

[seekerz]

I think I figured this out: The Russians are waiting at the Ukrainian border because it knows that Russian provocateurs are agitating and seceding areas with a large quantity of Russian ethnics, and by doing this they are assured of a response from the Ukrainian government who they expect or will even force, through the provocateurs, to use aggressive tactics that will provide the pretext for another invasion by Putin to protect Russian ethnics.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Also, the Russians may be waiting until the world’s attention shifts to other issues and Ukraine’s problems become old news. There are still strong economic reasons for leaders elsewhere to close their eyes to what Putin is doing, so public perception/pressure is still an important factor in how much opposition he gets.

Putin never struck me as an impressive leader but his imperial tendencies are on full display now. His stance in certain conflicts, most recently Syria, speaks to a mentality in which a country belongs to its leader, whose strength is measured in the extent to which he can keep his populace (and that of surrounding countries) in submission. Czarist rule seems to have survived communism after all.

 

[KyivAndrew]

Of course Sunday’s and today’s protests in several Eastern and Southern Ukrainian cities are being managed by the Kremlin and its secret agents from the FSB and GRU which are active in these areas. In Luhansk Ukraine’s government was able to to capture one cell and its arms.

However, this was no spontaneous uprising out of nowhere occurring simultaneously in several Ukrainian cities. No, it was planned by the FSB and GRU using citizens of Russia who are called Russian “tourists” by Ukrainians as they travel en masse across the Ukraine/Russia border specifically to start unrest and storm Ukrainian government buildings. They don’t need much people to do this; just a vocal and physical 1,000 people. These Russian ‘tourists’ are joined by the disenchanted in Eastern Ukraine, or by those who are bought and paid for like “titushky” to show up and protest. For instance, in Donetsk, Yanukovych’s billionaire son basically operated a criminal syndicate with 5 criminal undergroups to run the oblast. Yanukovych and his sons may be on the run out of Ukraine and in Russia, but they still have finances to pay for these people back in Donetsk and Easter Ukraine to destabilize Ukraine’s government.

This was all well-planned out. If there was no Putin or FSB/GRU in Ukraine this would not be happening. Period. Indeed, the Party of Regions (Yanukovych’s Party) has put out a candidate to take part in Ukraine’s Presidential elections on May 25 on the platform of greater autonomy for some of Ukraine’s regions and completely pro-Russian language. There are also other members of Yanukovych’s party like Tyhipko and Tsaryov who are also running. If the citizens of Ukraine wish such policies, they will vote for these men on May 25.

But this wasn’t good enough for Putin: what!? Democratic elections in Ukraine not done at the point of Russian guns? Not acceptable to Putin, and this is one reason he is acting as a Russian imperialist to completely destabilize and probably invade Ukraine - because he doesn’t need a stable democracy with rule of law and freedom of press on the border of his autocratic state.

So Putin and the FSB rush for these Eastern regions in Ukraine to hold pro-Russian referendum before Ukraine’s presidential elections, probably with the help of the Russian military or secret services. He cannot tolerate Ukraine holding a democratic Presidential election now, especially as he has amassed tens of thousands of Russia soldiers on Ukraine’s border. But then again which democracies which border Russia are happy to have Putin’s Russia as a neighbour: Poland? Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? Russia has no democratic allies in the world.

Several days before these violent uprisings began Georgian politician Saakashvili predicted on April 4, before the weekend’s surprise uprisings:

“It should be abundantly clear now that Putin’s initial plan of taking eastern Ukraine by mobilizing the Russian population there has failed. But that doesn’t mean he’s giving up. Russian strategists are talking about a “weekend of rage” that could involve some kind of armed siege of government buildings in southern and eastern Ukraine. If these local provocateurs and “self-defense forces” manage to hold these buildings as they did in Crimea, it might serve as a basis for further military intervention. Not that we should be surprised by this cynical playbook any more.”
Sakashvilli wrote this in Foreign Policy magazine last week before this past Sunday’s provocative protests which he accurately predicted. And it is true that by then (last week), the anti-Ukrainian government protests in these cities had died down for lack of massive support, but that didn’t stop the FSB/GRU coordinating with Russian tourists and locals one last push starting Sunday across several cities which is what they have now done.

And please, anything Putin says with regards to promises not to invade Ukraine further or that his secret agencies are not involved in Ukraine’s unrest should be regarded as lies or complete untruths worthy of a man who received his moral values from the KGB. How so? Look at what Putin said on March 4, 2014, at his news conference. A journalist asked him: “How do you see the future of Crimea? Do you consider the possibility of it joining Russia?” Putin’s responded forcefully : “No, we do not.” and this is stated directly on the Kremlin’s own website. Guess what? Two weeks later, under Russian guns and obviously under Putin’s direction, Crimea “joins”, ahem, Russia.

 

[KyivAndrew]

Moreover, all of Ukraine’s major churches (Ukrainian Catholic, all three of the Ukrainian Orthodox churches, even the one under Moscow) have come out strongly against separatism in Ukraine and Putin’s actions:
risu.org.ua/en/index/all_news/confessional/auccro/55984

I believe the Ukrainian Catholics and Ukrainian Orthodox have great reason to fear persecution were Russia to take over Ukraine or parts of it, and with good reason, if the recent beatings of Ukrainian Catholics in Crimea is anything to go by or Russian efforts to force Ukrainian Orthodox parishes into Russian Orthodox in Crimea.

Then, there’s this story which my aunt mentioned to me, about the way the Russian military treats innocent Ukrainian soldiers who have agreed to leave Crimea and go back home (well, really leave home, unfortunately, their Ukrainian Crimean home).

From Canada’s Global and Mail:

**Russian soldier kills Ukraine navy officer in Crimea, Ukrainian defence ministry says **

*A Russian soldier shot dead a Ukrainian naval officer in eastern Crimea, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said on Monday, the second Ukrainian death reported since Russia took control of the Black Sea peninsula.

“The Russian marine killed the unarmed officer. He killed the major with two shots,” said Ukrainian navy spokesman Vladislav Seleznyov.

Kiev has blamed Russia for stoking tensions in mostly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian protesters have seized state security offices in Donetsk and Luhansk, including facilities where weapons are stored.

The defence ministry spokesman said the soldier had been preparing his belongings to leave for the Ukrainian region of Mykolaev on Wednesday when an argument broke out with Russian servicemen.

The officer, Stanislav Karachevsky, who was married and had two children, was killed with an AK-74 on the fifth floor of the dormitory where he lived, he said.

A defence ministry statement said another Ukrainian soldier had been beaten by Russian servicemen and detained, but gave few details*
theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russian-soldier-kills-ukraine-navy-officer-in-crimea-ukrainian-defence-ministry-says/article17851644/

An unarmed married Ukrainian father of two kids killed point blank by a Russian officer as he’s just about to leave to return to his kids and wife. His wife is a widow now with two children thanks to the Russian army. And does anyone think the Russian army will hold this Russian murderer accountable? So much for the brotherly nations talk out of Putin. The Ukrainian soldiers who have left Crimea were harassed and called losers by the Russian military as they packed up and disembarked peacefully, all this after having had their families, women and kids, threatened with physical harm by pro-Russian forces in Crimea if their husbands did not surrender. And now Crimea is left to be run by an underworld Russian crime figure, Aksyonov, under Putin the KGB agent.

Criminals and the KGB. Is there a difference?

 

[Miserissima]

Criminals pay to keep their names and exploits out of the news.

The KGB pays to have names and exploits “spun” into tales that make them look like heroes.

 

[KyivAndrew]

Criminals pay to keep their names and exploits out of the news.

The KGB pays to have names and exploits “spun” into tales that make them look like heroes.

Yep. As a child even, Putin was enamoured of the Soviet NKVD/KGB. The young Putin kept a portrait of the founder of the Soviet Secret Police (Cheka), the butcher Feliks Dzerzhinsky, in his bedroom as he admired him and his “exploits” so.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felix_Dzerzhinsky