What do you think of climate change?

[phaster]

The science is settled on increased radiated warming from doubling CO2. We’ve always known it will increase temperatures by ~1.1C

huh,… seems some CAF posters have been duped by various “Merchants of Doubt” into parroting their message,… for example in some older CAF discussions, we see,…

Climate change is a lie: Global warming 'not real' claims Weather Channel founder World News

*John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible. Instead, what ‘little evidence’ there is for rising global temperatures points to a ‘natural phenomenon’ within a developing eco-system. … “I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid.” Mr Coleman said he based many of his views on the findings of the…

just sayin,… there was a PsyOp started long ago to try and win hearts and minds,… AND this can be proven quite simply by skimming over a document of collective key evidence

www.TinyURL.com/RevelleDoubt

(this “redirect” link points to a PDF on GoogleDocs which outlines what actually happened behind the scenes to Roger Revelle, who was a prominent scientist that did pioneering CO2 studies)

then check out the historial revision fairy tale being pushed in the general public,… using an interview on a local TV station

[KUSI News] Full unedited interview with S. Fred Singer parts 1 and 2

WRT to science and looking at the big picture,… what “Merchants of Doubt” and their believers have neglected is, not fully considering the knock on effects of elevated CO2 levels in other realms

for example, there are big problems in the oceans one should consider

What do you think of climate change? Social Justice

of course there are going to be exceptions to the rule,… biological adaptations has happened in the past which is why extremophile exist in hostile environments oceanservice[dot]noaa[dot]gov/facts/extremophile.html and biological adaptations will happen durning climate change BUT looking at the larger trends,… as I pointed out before, we still have to account for the fact basically “winners” are going to be very, vary, vary rare,… it would be sorta akin to investors who won big on credit …

(for details,… see full text of entry “83” on this tread)

or in simple gardening or farming,… see

www.TinyURL.com/HowBigIsTheEarth

(7th question,… why the veg-table?)

in this section I’ve outlined a few symptoms of global life being stressed,… which is akin to symptoms of a low grade fever in a human being,… IOW consider the avg human body temp is 37C and a 38C body temp means a fever caused by an infection or illness

Body temperature norms: MedlinePlus Medical Encyclopedia

bottom line IMHO,… an increase of ~1.1C in global temperature is kinda like a fever caused by an infection (specifically CO2 due to IR properties), that various life forms on planet earth is having to deal w/

 

[phaster]

PetraG:

We are witnessing more frequent and more powerful storms, droughts and temperature extremes.

This is one of the reasons there is push-back against those who insist the sky is falling. This statement is simply false, and is contradicted by the available data. That this claim is repeated endlessly doesn’t change the fact that it is not supported by anything more than empty assertions.

empty assertions?

FWIW one area/thing you might not have considered is “attribution studies”

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change - Climate Science Special Report

which involves lots of statistical analysis to look for signal,… AND if not done right ya end up w/ sloppy science like w/ Michael Mann and his his infamous “hockey stick” graph

What do you think of climate change? Social Justice

first heard of McKitrick 20+ years ago when he uncovered sloppy “science” and found buggy software FWIW “industry-funded” attacks are sadly all too real,… as I mentioned to “edwest211” other day,… that,… political mercenaries employed by talentless career politicians and various corporations like the status quo, so they will use propaganda and play mind games, to hide the truth!!! mention attacks specifically because years after my seminar class @UCSD read that Roger Revelle was a target d…

(for details,… see full text of entry “129” on this tread)

 

[phaster]

… it is possible to look at the connection as a moot point, even if you don’t think there is one. What we do know still argues in favor of living more frugally and being ready to help more people in great distress.

amen to that thought

 

[Theo520]

in this section I’ve outlined a few symptoms of global life being stressed,… which is akin to symptoms of a low grade fever in a human being,… IOW consider the avg human body temp is 37C and a 38C body temp means a fever caused by an infection or illness

I dont’ agree with this analogy. body temp is very stable and a 2% shift is significant and with impacts

Local temp here swings from below freezing to 100F most years, won’t even register your ‘slight fever’

*John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible.

I think the media is culpable. Instead of focusing on the real uncertainty they’ve turned both sides into zealots who spend their efforts at the extreme instead of where there is legit disagreement.

Yes, even John Coleman knows CO2 is a GHG and will add a warming effect. What he disagrees with are the models that catastrophic warming well above what CO2 directly contributes.

 

[undead_rat]

We know that 50,000 years ago the earth was in an ice age. It is obviously not so now. In my opinion, that fact proves that climate change is real and that global warming has been going on for some time.

It appears that we see some extreme opinions being voiced here. Some say that global warming is a fantasy. That idea , in view of the recent ice age, is obviously wrong. The other extreme is that man’s production of CO/2 is responsible for all global warming. That conclusion is also wrong in view of the fact that the earth warmed out of the recent ice age long before the industrial age.

The correct answer lies somewhere in between: global warming is part of earth’s natural cycle of 100,000 year ice ages interspersed with brief warm periods of 20,000 years. Man’s production of CO2 may be accelerating the earth’s natural warming trend, but warming was going to happen anyway. The real climatic danger is the next ice age.

Global Warming Morphs Into the Solar Minimum - CounterPunch.org

 

[Ender]

FWIW one area/thing you might not have considered is “attribution studies”

Don’t cite a document and expect me to go through it looking for something that may or may not be there. If there is information in there that supports your position then extract and present it. I provided two charts of data showing that neither hurricanes nor tornadoes were increasing in either strength or frequency, contrary to popular opinion.

Show me the data.

 

[phaster]

LeafByNiggle:

The trouble is, many people here want to play at being a scientist without actually putting in the education to learn the field well enough to be able to be a scientist for real.

Yup. That is the jest of it! Point is that we are rarely as smart as we think we are!

sigh,… ever notice that people (in general) who seem to be the most sure and vocal of their abilities,… seem to have an inverse intelligence/skill-set WRT the matter being discussed?

prime archetypal example of this inverse intelligence/skill-set ability postulate,… the old “cheers” sit-com character “cliff”

or given the topic being discussed, dare I mention POTUS

The Real Science Behind Trump's Climate Change Tweet | TIME

never took a psychology class, but an article I have come across sounds all too true

Studies find high achievers underestimate their talents, while underachievers overestimate theirs

…while almost everyone holds favorable views of their abilities in various social and intellectual domains, some people mistakenly assess their abilities as being much higher than they actually are. This ‘illusion of confidence’ is now called the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’, and describes the cognitive bias to inflate self-assessment.

To investigate this phenomenon in the lab, Dunning and Kruger designed some clever experiments. In one study, they asked undergraduate students a series of questions about grammar, logic and jokes, and then asked each student to estimate his or her score overall, as well as their relative rank compared to the other students. Interestingly, students who scored the lowest in these cognitive tasks always overestimated how well they did—by a lot. Students who scored in the bottom quartile estimated that they had performed better than two-thirds of the other students!

…Interestingly, really smart people also fail to accurately self-assess their abilities.

…students presumed that if these cognitive tasks were easy for them, then they must be just as easy or even easier for everyone else. This so-called ‘imposter syndrome’ can be likened to the inverse of the Dunning-Kruger effect, whereby high achievers fail to recognize their talents and think that others are equally competent. The difference is that competent people can and do adjust their self-assessment given appropriate feedback, while incompetent individuals cannot.

Studies find high achievers underestimate their talents, while underachievers overestimate theirs — Quartz

for a while I though people in the general public at least understood some basic parts of the “scientific” theory of “climate change” and had the guts to face the problem head on

seems I was sadly mistaken!

Trump Department of Agriculture Buries Climate-Change Studies on Carbon Dioxide

 

[Ender]

sigh,… ever notice that people (in general) who seem to be the most sure and vocal of their abilities,… seem to have an inverse intelligence/skill-set WRT the matter being discussed?

If the science isn’t working for you I guess pop-psychology is all that’s left.

 

[phaster]

thought I’d let things sit for a few days to see if anyone else had anything constructive and insightful to add to this climate conversation

crickets chirping,…

phaster:

sigh,… ever notice that people (in general) who seem to be the most sure and vocal of their abilities,… seem to have an inverse intelligence/skill-set WRT the matter being discussed?

If the science isn’t working for you I guess pop-psychology is all that’s left.

ender seems we’ll have to agree to disagree about the science

for those others brave and mature enough to look at the science with an objective eye,… before the problem(s) can be fixed, people will have to acknowledge and openly discuss three key facts:

1st) that,… the basic science of “climate change” isn’t that difficult to understand,… yet very few actually take the time and effort to face the truth and seek to understanding what is really happening!

TinyURL.com - shorten that long URL into a tiny URL

2nd) that,… its a natural reaction human reaction be in denial of the predicament humanity faces AND if you think about it, we’re sort of like lab rats experimenting on our own destiny!!

3rd) that,… political mercenaries employed by talentless career politicians and various corporations like the status quo, so they will use propaganda and play mind games, to hide the truth!!!

www.TinyURL.com/RevelleDoubt

for example,… consider what actually happened behind the scenes to Roger Revelle, who was a prominent scientist that did pioneering CO2 research and was specifically targeted by “Merchants of Doubt”

…as catholics we know what is written in the bible

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And he said: “Let us make Man to our image and likeness. And let him rule over the fish of the sea, and the flying creatures of the air, and the wild beasts, and the entire earth, and every animal that moves on the earth.” And God created man to his own image; to the image of God he created him; male and female, he created them. And God blessed them, and he said, “Increase and multiply, and fill the earth, and subdue it, and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and the flying creatures of the air, and over every living thing that moves upon the earth.”

Genesis 1:26-28 CPDV

Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves.

Matthew 7:15 CPDV

point being if trends continue and “Merchants of Doubt” continue to hold sway in the arena of public opinion,… there is no getting around the bottom line fact that by ignoring the many signs that “faith and science” has given us,… mankind’s collective hubris is going to result in an exorbitant price being paid, for not taking care of creation!

 

[phaster]

‘Potentially dangerous’ heatwave set to strike Europe

Relief in sight for France after heat more typical of Death Valley breaks all-time high

The extreme heat wave that is suspected of killing several people this week set an all-time high in France on Friday. Relief is on the horizon but not before the heat strengthens its grip across Europe this weekend.

The highest temperature ever measured across France in the entirety of record keeping was set on Friday afternoon. Temperatures soared to 45.9 C (114.6 F) at Gallargues-le-Montueux in southeastern France, exceeding the nation’s previous all-time record high of 44.1 C (111.4 F) at Conqueyrac on 12 August 2003.

A high near 46 C (115 F) is more typical of what is recorded in California’s Death Valley in the United States this time of year.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...in-and-other-parts-of-western-europe/70008660

Europe has had five 500-year summers in 15 years. And now this

Europe’s five hottest summers in the past 500 years have all occurred in the last 15 years, not including this summer. All have been deadly. The 2003 heat wave was the worst, having led to the deaths of over 70,000 people; in 2010, 56,000 died in Russia alone.

These extreme heat events are all connected to a slower jet stream that locks weather systems into place

…The loss of sea ice in the Arctic is amplifying warming in the northernmost regions of our planet, and that is disrupting the natural jet stream patterns

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...pe-has-had-five-500-year-summers-in-15-years/

 

[Theo520]

Are you trying to use isolated weather events to prove global warming???

 

[Ender]

Are you trying to use isolated weather events to prove global warming???

Only warm weather events prove global warming. Cold weather events are just weather.

Contrary to Global Warming Predictions, Great Lakes Water Levels Now at Record Highs – Watts Up With That?

It is a truism that any observed change in nature will be blamed by some experts on global warming (aka “climate change”, “climate crisis”, “climate emergency”).

 

[Theo520]

Sounds like that hottest day in France was measured by an inappropriate thermometer. Not denying it was hot, just perhaps an invalid record.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/29/frances-new-hottest-recorded-temperature-ever-is-in-question-guess-where-it-was-measured/

 

[phaster]

Are you trying to use isolated weather events to prove global warming???

Europe has had five 500-year summers in 15 years. And now this

…The loss of sea ice in the Arctic is amplifying warming in the northernmost regions of our planet, and that is disrupting the natural jet stream patterns

FWIW to give you some insight how I’m looking at this news event,… first thing that came to my mind after the headline caught my eye,… is this weather heatwave pattern out of the “historical” norm???

looking at the event from a physics POV,… the melting ice tells me that the system itself is changing AND so too are flow patterns (on the large global scale)

as an concerned spectator, I am aware of “attribution studies”

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change | The National Academies Press

FYI “attribution studies” use math to ask questions like,… is the June 2019 euro heat wave in a grand scheme of things, part of a normal distribution,… or is it part of a series of events that is outside of a normal distribution,… IOW discounting the news headline hype of record breaking heat, is this latest paris heat wave a fluke event (given recent historical norms) or is there a symptomatic trend of global temperatures increasing

so to directly answer your question,… NOPE I am not using the news in france of an “isolated” heat wave, as proof of global warming,… BUT I am using my gut instinct (based on a formal background of math/science) which tells me the latest heat wave seems to be part of pattern of symptoms that indicates something w/ the climate isn’t kosher

basically I’m not only looking at the hard cutting edge science of CC

CLOUD | CERN

but also trying to get a feel for how the eco system is faring

basically w/ in the eco system we see insect populations are trending dramatically downward, as well as oceans becoming more acidic, thus causing adverse knock on effects,… so in the “environmental” arena, overall we’re in big trouble!!!

then there is the other unacknowledged man made problem of ever growing unsustainable off balance sheet debt which is fractal in nature,… meaning debt obligations are happening at the local level

www.TinyURL.com/13thcheck

as well as at the state AND national levels

www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning

bottom line,… ignoring manmade climate change and off balance sheet debt obligations is an unappreciated knockout “combo” punch risk!!!

PS if you’re god fearing,… then one should see the pattern of symptoms, indicates people are not taking care of creation,… which then leads to the interesting question, WRT “climate change” is god about predestination or free will?

 

[Theo520]

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[Ender]

bottom line,… ignoring manmade climate change and off balance sheet debt obligations is an unappreciated knockout “combo” punch risk!!!

Demonstrating that the Earth actually is warming says nothing whatever about what has caused it. Pretty much everyone recognizes that the climate has warmed in the last 150 years. The disagreement is about the cause. That Europe is experiencing a heat wave says nothing about why this has happened.

 

[MichaelP3]

MR Steve B. I am a Chemical Engineer. And I will correspond to anyone deemed!

 

[phaster]

phaster:

bottom line,… ignoring manmade climate change and off balance sheet debt obligations is an unappreciated knockout “combo” punch risk!!!

Demonstrating that the Earth actually is warming says nothing whatever about what has caused it. Pretty much everyone recognizes that the climate has warmed in the last 150 years. The disagreement is about the cause. That Europe is experiencing a heat wave says nothing about why this has happened.

…given sufficient amounts of a “green house gas” produced by a chemical reaction

https://blueskymodel.org/gallon-gas

NOTE total worldwide oil consumption is in the 90+ million barrels per day (bbl/day) on average,… AND there are 42 gals in a barrel (so there is lots of CO2 produced daily)

the climate can change simply because of a fundamental structural property of CO2 which allows visible light through,… BUT the ability to vibrate on a molecular scale causes CO2 to trap infrared radiation

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(see 6th question,… why do we have a very real problem?)

on page 11 of the PDF

www.TinyURL.com/HowBigIsTheEarth

I’ve curated a list of YouTube videos which present basic information about CO2

as far as why europe is experiencing a heatwave,… its actually no big mystery if one understands the big picture

if one considers “error chain analysis” (which is how the NTSB determines the cause of an aircraft accidents for example)

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-rel...on_that_Killed_Four_in_2008_NTSB_Determi.aspx

we can also use an “error chain” approach to explain a heatwave!

basically since elevated CO2 levels increase infrared radiation,… this causes elevated surface temperatures,… and symptoms include melting polar ice

when polar ice melts, this changes the jet stream,… when the jet stream changes, we have an increased likelihood of a heat wave in regions like france which made headline news

Europe has had five 500-year summers in 15 years. And now this

…The loss of sea ice in the Arctic is amplifying warming in the northernmost regions of our planet, and that is disrupting the natural jet stream patterns

QED “CC caused by CO2” and “pop-psychology”

MichaelP3:

LeafByNiggle:

The trouble is, many people here want to play at being a scientist without actually putting in the education to learn the field well enough to be able to be a scientist for real.

Yup. That is the jest of it! Point is that we are rarely as smart as we think we are!

Studies find high achievers underestimate their talents, while underachievers overestimate theirs

This ‘illusion of confidence’ is now called the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’, and describes the cognitive bias to inflate self-assessment.

 

[Ender]

…given sufficient amounts of a “green house gas” produced by a chemical reaction

Everyone knows how CO2 is produced. Everyone knows that CO2 is a (trace) greenhouse gas (.04%). Everyone knows that greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere. What no one knows, however, is the effect adding more CO2 to the atmosphere has in terms of feedback and forcing. That is, the climate sensitivity is unknown, and suggesting that because some things are known we know everything important is nonsense.

as far as why europe is experiencing a heatwave,… its actually no big mystery if one understands the big picture

Here’s a big picture, maybe this will help. What it shows is a heat wave over western Europe at the same time as a cold wave over eastern Europe. The maximum temperature difference between those two regions was 58 deg F. To put that in perspective, the NOAA average temperature discrepancy for June was +0.5 deg F. Does your global explanation for the heat wave explain why France was hot and Belarus was cold?

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[phaster]

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so everyone knows blah, blah, blah about basic properties of CO2 and everyone has a good basic understanding of the science of CC,… really?!

What do you think of climate change? Social Justice

Biggest load of bull to ever come down the pike!!! Duck and cover…

as I said the big long-term picture is relatively easy to understand because CO2 produced by mankind gradually heats up the Earth’s surface temperatures,… so we’ll have obvious symptoms like polar ice melting,… which then effects the jet-stream,… which then effects local weather patterns (as reported)

What do you think of climate change? Social Justice
BTW if you are asking was the specific heat wave that just happened in france predictable along w/ cool weather in russia,… the answer is NO!

from a physics stand point, weather involves turbulence and diffusion,… so its impossible to model w/ math, because it would require knowing all the initial conditions of everything w/ in the system

actually a math forecast is an “average” of what happens in real life,… as they say “seeing is believing” (simple demo examples)

Diffusion - experiment(s) with dye in “cold” and “warm” water

Turbulence

as a pilot flying from point “a” to point “b” I trust weather forecasts by a meteorologist, because for the “flight time - time window” there exist pretty accurate models,… but because events in the real world include chaos (i.e. random events),… I do not trust long term weather forecasts which can change dramatically from one week to another

climate on the other hand, looks at the big picture, over long time spans, and is pretty simple by comparison,…. so the hot weather in paris isn’t all that surprising due to the fact that CO2 produced by mankind over the years eventually melted ice in the polar regions,… which changed the jet stream,… which in turn “creates turbulence w/ local weather patterns”

NOTE in the YouTube video about “Diffusion,…” you’ll see the dye (in the warm water) over the course of the demonstration becomes evenly distributed,… the analogy w/ CC being, the global average temperature will increase over time due to CO2 trapping IR

over the years I’ve really had to laugh when people who question how come scientists are certain the climate of the Earth is going to “heat up” while they point out meteorologists can’t predict a severe weather storm two weeks out

basically from what I have seen, hardly anyone knows blah, blah, blah about basic properties of CO2 and people in general have very little basic understanding of science/math,… #sad

https://twitter.com/x/status/1090074254010404864