OK,
I’m reading The Federalist piece.
"The study, of women who married in the 2000s, purports to find a “counterintuitive” result: That
both women with zero to one and with three to nine sex partners are less likely to divorce than ladies with two or more than ten partners. Therefore, it says, “the relationship between divorce and the number of sexual partners women have prior to marriage is not linear.”
–I suspect the confounding issue for why 3-9 is less divorce-y than 2 is that the women in the 3-9 category are older, which brings down divorce risk.
–Ladies in the 10+ partner category are probably outliers in a lot of different ways.
–I suspect that the fact that it’s only a 5-year window is also important and that the numbers will be less dramatically different for, say 10 or 20 years.
–Note that the 2000s 10+ cohort is much more divorce-y than the 1980s or 1990s cohorts. That probably has something to do with the fact that young Americans today have far fewer sexual partners than Boomers, so a 10+ woman today is much more unusual than her Boomer counterpart.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...han-their-parents-did/?utm_term=.0175fb5d382a
“Baby Boomers have picked up the pace, averaging about 11 partners. Generation X has nearly kept up with 10.”
“And Millennials, generation of Tinder and “I’m just not looking for anything serious right now,” can expect an average of just eight.”
So, the Millennial with 10+ sexual partners is an outlier in a way that a Boomer with 10+ sexual partners was not.
–Back to The Federalist. “That women who married in the 2000s were least likely to divorce if they had no sex partners before marriage, at a rate of approximately 6 percent. That’s almost divorce-proof. Even just one sex partner before marriage moved up a woman’s chances of divorce within five years of marriage to one in five chances, at a 20 percent rate.” Again, over just
five years. Not impressed.
–This was very naughty. “Tragically for women’s chances at lifelong love, however, “the share of women who were virgins at marriage fell from 21% in the 1970s to 5% in the 2010s.” In other words, we can thank the death of chastity for contributing to our high divorce rates.” And yet, divorce rates are
down. We recently had a 40-year
low.