60% of US states are reporting increases in new cases

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JonNC said:
Then you must be willing to blame Cuomo, Murphy, Inslee, and Newsom.
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Absolutely! The great failure in the shutdown was that it was only used in places to buy time. Instead, the purpose should always have been to start up production and business ASAP with the greatest possible safety.

Bars was a predictably stupid move. Let’s face it, drunks in a bar are the polar opposite of responsible, and a completely unnecessary part of economic production.
Thbolt said:
Is it because Americans can’t do simple things to help their fellow Americans?
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Unless it is mandated, I would say they cannot. Even then, pride exceeds civic duty in too many.
 
Thbolt said:
Well, that’s just sad.
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Yes, it is. I had thought maybe of starting a shame page of people out without masks and post them in apposition to the obituaries of people who have died. I thought of it. I won’t. My angers says I should. My common sense says I shouldn’t.

None the less, I consider those who are not worrying masks at this time and in this place, the most selfish and inconsiderate of folk, willing for others to die for their convenience.
 
Masks when properly used plus social distancing are ok to stop aerial spread. But they are next to useless for stopping fecal/oral spread. I think it’s criminal they’re not saying much at all about the fecal/oral transmission vector. This vector is why long term care facilities continue to be a problem even though visitors have been shut out for months now. We hear “wash your hands” a lot, but we’re not hearing much beyond that with respect to fecal/oral spread.

For some posters’ benefit, I can’t find where I first saw the speculation regarding the 50% rate of immunity without infection. However there is this interesting discussion that ties into what I said about 20% penetration of Covid-19 in New York state and the corresponding 20% penetration on board the Diamond Princess.

theconversation.com

Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

There is speculation about whether a population can achieve some sort of immunity to the virus with as little as 20% infected.
theconversation.com theconversation.com

From this article (emphasis mine):
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been difficult to predict and understand. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, for example, where the virus is likely to have spread relatively freely through the air-conditioning system linking cabins, only 20% of passengers and crew were infected. Data from military ships and cities such as Stockholm, New York and London also suggest that infections have been around 20% – much lower than earlier mathematical models suggested.

This has led to speculation about whether a population can achieve some sort of immunity to the virus with as little as 20% infected – a proportion well below the widely accepted herd immunity threshold (60-70%).
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Further discussion in this article:

www.spectator.co.uk

Covid has all but left London. Why?

My partner, Julian, hovered at my shoulder on Friday as I tapped out my Times Saturday column (about travel quarantine). I’d slipped in a paragraph with my own thoughts about the transmission of Covid-19. ‘Cut the lot,’ he said. ‘You’re not an epidemiologist. Nobody’s interested in your...
www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk

Food for thought here, it’s a legit discussion, don’t be dismissing it out of hand.
 
Thbolt said:
If I were a seatbelt, I might still die in a car crash.
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Doesn’t work. Seatbelts are to mitigate risk. Mask wearing is only delaying you catching it. BTW, you may have already had it and didn’t even know it.
 
I will dismiss nothing out of hand, given scientific evidence. Thanks for sharing this. It would be a relief to have a ceiling for this thing. We’re losing businesses left and right. Worse, the lost lives.
 
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Thbolt said:
Mask wearing is to mitigate risk. Where are you getting the idea that everyone will get it eventually?
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The authorities only sold us on slowing the spread to avoid overwhelming the health care system. If the virus was here earlier (which they now admit) it was spreading well before they had a name for it and the ability to test for it. Viruses continue to spread until they run out of hosts or herd immunity blocks their spread. They claim this is especially infectious. Why would you think you won’t get it or haven’t had it?
 
Another question to ask is - if the virus already ran through and already killed the most vulnerable (ie nursing home elderly etc) it won’t kill them again so death counts will be substantially lower in coming months even if more positive antigen tests are found.
 
buffalo said:
Doesn’t work. Seatbelts are to mitigate risk. Mask wearing is only delaying you catching it. BTW, you may have already had it and didn’t even know it.
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Masks do mitigate risk. To the tune of about a 50% reduced risk of transmission. It is not a given that everyone will eventually be infected. Remember, merely being exposed to the virus doesn’t mean you’re actually going to be infected. For multiple reasons, the virus may fail to take hold in your cells and achieve infection.

There will never be a 100% positive infection rate in any nation for Covid-19. Multiple top epidemiologists have estimated that at most, maybe 70% of the world’s population would eventually contract it. The more realistic figure is 40%.

No place has even achieved more than a 60% rate. You should read Zzz’s link link, it provides an interesting hypothesis that many populations will only see a top margin of 20% total infected before it burns out.

I’m not saying don’t take the virus seriously. But I don’t see any scenario where this virus can hit above 60% of the total population being infected.

Here’s Zzz’s link again.

theconversation.com

Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

There is speculation about whether a population can achieve some sort of immunity to the virus with as little as 20% infected.
theconversation.com theconversation.com
 
QContinuum said:
I fully expected to see huge spikes by mid-May because of the thousands of protesters at the state capitols, most of whom didn’t mask. That spike never emerged beyond a few isolated one day spikes that quickly were followed by low rates of positives.
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The number of lock down protesters were comparatively small, and their protest was for a short duration in a handful of capitals. I don’t think the numbers were enough to cause a spike.

We’ve seen probably x50-100 the number at each BLM protest, and they frequently came back together day after day. This occurred in almost every metro area across the USA. And wham, we are now seeing a broad nation wide jump in cases.
 
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Given that fewer than a hundred people in a couple of bars has been enough to cause moderate spikes, the thousands of people who were protesting for three weeks in May were sufficient to cause an outbreak. Especially given that many were getting into the faces of counter protests from medical staff, who would most definitely be high risk for being carriers, given their jobs.
 
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QContinuum said:
Masks do mitigate risk. To the tune of about a 50% reduced risk of transmission.
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How many people had it before any measures were taken? Without knowing this number it is very difficult to know the real effects of mask wearing. If you already had it and didn’t know it then the mask doesn’t do much besides giving one a headache and rebreathing your exhaled gases.

When do you think t=0 was in the US?

I think you are actually speaking of herd immunity.
 
QContinuum said:
Given that fewer than a hundred people in a couple of bars has been enough to cause moderate spikes, the thousands of people who were protesting for three weeks in May were sufficient to cause an outbreak. Especially given that many were getting into the faces of counter protests from medical staff, who would most definitely be high risk for being carriers, given their jobs.
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Elective surgeries are on the rise. They require a test before surgery. Of course we will see more positives. This can be part of the data.
 
No. There have been multiple studies already done on the effects of wearing a mask on droplet transmission. Would you like me to post them?

The principles behind wearing masks in reducing transmission of viruses and bacterial infections is well established, which is why doctors and nurses have been wearing them for decades.

Herd immunity is different from droplet/ aerosolized barriers. It depends on people having an immune response to the virus. This can be attained through vaccination, or prior infection by the virus or sometimes even a similar but different virus in the coronavirus family.
 
QContinuum said:
No. There have been multiple studies already done on the effects of wearing a mask on droplet transmission. Would you like me to post them?

The principles behind wearing masks in reducing transmission of viruses and bacterial infections is well established, which is why doctors and nurses have been wearing them for decades.
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Is your claim mask wearing will bring it to a dead stop?
 
Rates of infection are telling. You may test 1000 people, and get back 1.5%.

You can test 10000 more and will definitely add more to the absolute total. But the rate will likely stay the same.

Right now, MN has upped its testing to 20000 a day. We have added thousands of positives as a result. But the rate of positives is still only 3 to 4%.

Same as months ago when were testing only a few hundred a day.
 
You tell me if “Masks mitigate risk of transmission” means “Masks eliminate transmission.”

They don’t in my book.
 
QContinuum said:
No. There have been multiple studies already done on the effects of wearing a mask on droplet transmission. Would you like me to post them?
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N95 masks allow your breath to be exhaled into a contaminated environment. Surgical masks prevent the staff from infecting open human wounds.

I am not really arguing mask effectiveness per se. Someone was posting about fecal transmission.

I am making the point that the spread is far deeper and wider than anyone thought already. If you already had it or have partial immunity from Sars 2015 (40-60% of pop) and antibody tests in NYC were around 20%, what exactly is mask wearing accomplishing?
 
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