60% of US states are reporting increases in new cases

[QContinuum]

Know what else don’t work? Reopening for three weeks and then shutting it back down abruptly. Like what Abbott’s doing in Texas.

I don’t claim to know the answer to this mess but I note your article is from May 28. That’s a bit outdated info now. A month ago the infection rate was minimal. Now it’s rebounding with a vengeance.

 

[ATraveller]

Many will deny it for political reasons but the protests and rioting cannot be ruled out. Given the low testing rates in America and poor contact tracing in the country, serious people simply can’t rule those out as contributors along with early reopening in some places.
Wearing masks isn’t going to be enough. I’ve seen the news reports. Many wear them inconsistently. Some pull them down to shout, which makes the dispersion of droplets worse.

 

[QContinuum]

I wouldn’t deny it, I’ve been expecting it since the first protests started in early May over stay at home orders. But the results so far of testing done on protestors hasn’t borne that out. Yet.

I think the heavy use of masks and the outdoors environment worked to the advantage of many protesters.

Amparo A. HERNANDEZ

*CORRECTION* Also survived by brothers, Rudy and Nacho. (Full notice ran Sunday.)

www.google.com

ETA another article basically stating the same thing:

Early test results of Minnesota protesters show few coronavirus positives

Coronavirus testing of more than 1,300 George Floyd protesters from Minnesota’s Twin Cities show few new positive cases, according to a report.

www.foxnews.com

 

[petra22]

Remember, this disease spreads by both breath and fecal/oral means,

This is the first place I’ve ever heard it spreads by fecal means… Did the scientists/experts working with President Trump ever say that?

 

[Cathoholic]

RidgeSprinter quoting an article . . .

. . . between the two options of achieving herd immunity through infection versus vaccination, “I would certainly advocate for the latter.”

You do realize RidgeSprinter that there is NO vaccination against corona virus infections. Right?

Your article and the guy being quoted is comparing
reality (herd immunity via infection and recovery) and a
hypothetical possibility (herd immunity via vaccination).

There are good reasons WHY a coronavirus vaccination will never (at least in the forseeable future) be an option. At least an option that presents a solution.

 

[ATraveller]

But the results so far of testing done on protestors hasn’t borne that out. Yet.

I’ve seen those stories weeks ago. Aside from being early days, it requires people to volunteer to get tested. There’s no other way. That makes it inherently self-selecting. That is in addition to the fact the viral load has to be high enough at the time for the tests to detect the presence of the virus. That means the same people have to be tested again. And there are also subsequent protests that need to be examined. And other locations.
It’s not as simple as one city sees no increase means others won’t. Nor does it mean if one city sees an increase and therefore others will too.
And even if transmission was low at the protests as what the early data suggests(and possibly at some riots and lootings but those haven’t been studied and how would you), one asymptomatic or presymptomatic case caught at one of the three could easily spread at, for example, bars or public transit, and those become hotspots.
Large gatherings create more chains of transmission. Precautions are great and weaken such chains but the risk isn’t zero. It just takes a few to create clusters elsewhere.
We know in some places (not American) that have done everything reasonable to suppress their outbreaks are now seeing new outbreaks even without protests. The outbreaks were never suppressed in the US so protests or large political rallies were reckless gambles.

 

[QContinuum]

volunteer to get tested. There’s no other way. That makes it inherently self-selecting. That is in addition to the fact the viral load has to be high enough at the time for the tests to detect the presence of the virus. That means the same people have to be tested again.

Yes, this is exactly the point of these protester-specific testing sites. They wanted to see exactly how the risk of infection was impacted by those who engaged on protest activities. There has been a huge push for people who attended rallies to get tested with or without symptoms.

The articles are from two weeks ago but they were looking at testing done 7 to 10 days after the very first protests. That is well within the incubation period for infected to begin exhibiting symptoms.

A more recent check in from six days ago showed no significant change.

Minnesota sees no rise in COVID-19 cases tied to protests: Health official

So far, Minneapolis has not seen a dramatic uptick in COVID-19 cases related to George Floyd protests, the state’s Department of Health said.

www.google.com

But probably the most telling indicator is the rate of hospitalizations. Testing rates may want or suffer from accessibility issues, but significant increases in the numbers of people showing up at hospitals requiring medical support are a clear indication of a spike in infection rates.

So far, MN hasn’t seen any increase in hospitalizations. If anything there’s been a slight trend downwards over the past week.

Typically, Day 4 through 7 after exposure is when an infected person begins to feel symptoms like fever or coughing. Day 10 to 14 is the time period most people who experience symptoms severe enough to seek out medical support.

Given that it’s been a month since the start of the protests here in MN, we should be seeing an appreciable rise in hospitalizations here commiserate with a rash of new infections. Since that isn’t happening - yet - it appear that at least in MN, recent protests are not driving any spikes.

It may be different in other places, depending on how diligent people were in wearing masks and practicing social distancing. The only way to tell if protests are a specific driver of infection spikes though is to do like MN Health Department and Mayo Clinic did and specifically test those who protested and then measure those results (how many infected individuals per 1000) against the rate for the general population.

 

[QContinuum]

And even if transmission was low at the protests as what the early data suggests(and possibly at some riots and lootings but those haven’t been studied and how would you), one asymptomatic or presymptomatic case caught at one of the three could easily spread at, for example, bars or public transit, and those become hotspots.

Oh and I agree with all of this. We’re not seeing evidence borne out yet by our numbers here in MN that the protests either by the anti-lock down rallies in May or the the BLM protests that started four weeks ago are driving up the rates. It goes against all predictions. The only thing I can figure is it’s got to be combination of being outdoors with the dispersal effect of air circulation, the movement of persons instead of being stationary, etc. And some help with masks. Although even there most of the May protests involved people who largely did not wear masks.

 

[ATraveller]

So far, MN hasn’t seen any increase in hospitalizations. If anything there’s been a slight trend downwards over the past week.

There shouldn’t be an increase in hospitalizations because I don’t believe many of the protesters are in the high risk groups.

 

[QContinuum]

Then hospitalizations should not be rising quickly in places like TX and AZ and FL where the infection rate is spiking precipitously among young people. But they are indeed rising.

The fact that the virus hits older people harder doesn’t mean that younger people still don’t have consistent rates of complications themselves. A group of 20-30 year olds might only need hospitalization about 5% of the time versus 20% for 50-60 year olds, as an example.

That doesn’t seem like much but if you only have 3000 ICU beds in the entire state, and you’ve already got 500 in use due to existing Covid-19 cases plus other conditions. Well, increasing 5000 positive cases day at 5% means you are over capacity in fewer than 12 days. Texas and Florida have been adding greater numbers than these. Arizona is already at critical threshold for total ICU beds. Nealy all of it driven in the last month by large numbers of infected young adults.

 

[QContinuum]

Here is additional information about the spikes in hospitalizations in Texas as an example. This is why I don’t think the protests has contributed significantly to infection rates in MN. If they did, we should have seen it last month starting with the anti-lock down protesters. But we’re not seeing any spike in infection rates or in hospitalizations. It leads me to think other behaviors have much more impact on transmission, like sitting indoors at a bar or in a party indoors.

"Basit said there has been a sharp increase in the number of cases among younger people in North Texas.

" ‘That’s translating into the younger people who are requiring hospitalization and younger people who are now requiring ICU [care],’ ” he said.

In June, people under 50 have made up 50% of those hospitalized in D-FW hospitals and 30% of those in critical care, according to data gathered by UT Southwestern."

Texas is heading down a dangerous path, local leaders warn as coronavirus cases and hospitalizations surge

When Gov. Greg Abbott let businesses start reopening, he pointed to two metrics as encouraging signs: the hospitalization rate and the infection rate. Both of those metrics are on the rise in Texas.

www.texastribune.org

 

[QContinuum]

Also, quick addendum, many of the protesters are AA or POC who are identified by many medical resources and health departments as higher risk for severe illness and fatality. This is true across all age groups. The very first person who died of Covid-19 in MN was a 30 something male person of color. No underlying health conditions.

Something I have not seen mentioned on these boards is the question of viral count involved in initial exposure. One of the first things that I questioned was why so many doctors and nurses, despite being young and seemingly healthy, were not just catching it but becoming severely ill and dying from it. In China, Italy, then here in NYC and other got spots, it was the same story. Turns out, according to research that’s since been published, the numbers of viruses you are exposed to can greatly impact how bad the infection is. Makes sense in a way, if you’re taking in 100K viruses over a 12 hour shift versus 1200 from a passing acquaintance at a grocery store, that though both become infected, the former case would be likely a much worse infection because of being inundated with some many virulent viruses.

If the connection between severity of disease and viral count is actually true, then this means certain situations like sitting in a movie theater breathing in infected droplets in the air for over an hour would be a higher risk than doing yoga for 15 minutes in the park. Both for risk of infection and severity of illness.

 

[ATraveller]

This is why I don’t think the protests has contributed significantly to infection rates in MN. If they did, we should have seen it last month starting with the anti-lock down protesters.

At this point, protests themselves don’t appear to be the direct major contributors of the increases. That doesn’t mean there was no transmission. In theory it just takes one transmission and for that one person (even if the rest of the protesters don’t catch it) to go to a bar, etc. And there (away from the protests) cases proliferate.
There are no justifications for protests seen during this pandemic. Any protests. Any rallies. Any large gatherings. They should not have happened. The chances taken shouldn’t have been taken.

 

[QContinuum]

Again, I agree that it only takes one to spread. I am expecting Tulsa Oklahoma and the larger state to see effect from the indoor rally. Back in March, I warned a friend who was attending a Bernie Sanders rally in MI. There were at least 10K there, all crowded together, no masks, indoors. She dismissed my warning and seven days later the tsunami hit. And continued for months.

I think the key is air circulation and of course distance. Viruses are very quickly dispersed and subject to degradation in outdoor environments. UV, wind, temperature, humidity all can work to destroy the virus’s protein coat.

Indoors, with much more tepid circulation, lack of UV, and with environmental conditions all moderate, the ability of the virus to spread in much higher concentrations is what I suspect is the “ideal” conditions for it to be transmitted.

Doesn’t bode well for my chances of seeing a movie in a theater anytime soon.

 

[buffalo]

This is the first place I’ve ever heard it spreads by fecal means… Did the scientists/experts working with President Trump ever say that?

It survives the acids in the digestive tract?

 

[buffalo]

Aside from being early days, it requires people to volunteer to get tested. There’s no other way. That makes it inherently self-selecting.

If one goes for a test twice and tests positive both times does it count for two?

 

[Zzyzx_Road]

petra22:

This is the first place I’ve ever heard it spreads by fecal means… Did the scientists/experts working with President Trump ever say that?

It survives the acids in the digestive tract?

Yes it does. Why the scientists/experts working with the president do not talk about that, I have some good guesses: to talk about this is to allow the discussion to go to very politically incorrect places. So they can’t allow that discussion and the CDC won’t say anything beyond “wash your hands!”

Viruses that can spread by fecal/oral means are dang hard to control because it is so easy for otherwise healthy people to pass this around just by touching contaminated surfaces. Whereas it takes an infected person to breathe the virus out there for someone else to breathe it in. Polio was spread this way; it was more transmissible than Covid-19 and it took a vaccine to deal with it.

In the meantime, here are a few sources to start off your study:

Why You Should Flush With The Lid Down: Experts Warn Of Fecal-Oral Transmission Of COVID-19

80% of particle transmission can be prevented by shutting the lid when flushing.

www.forbes.com

Understanding spread of COVID-19

Stanford professor Alexandria Boehm and visiting scholar Krista Wigginton describe potential transmission pathways of COVID-19 and their implications.

news.stanford.edu

Scientists say coronavirus can spread through ‘aerosolized feces’

Closing the toilet lid is highly recommended amid the coronavirus outbreak, according to a report, as a group of researchers have found that the bug can spread through fecal matter that escapes fro…

nypost.com

COVID-19 may spread through feces of those infected, analysis finds - UPI.com

More than one of every 10 people with COVID-19 develop diarrhea, nausea and/or vomiting, and these symptoms may be a key driver of disease spread, an analysis published Thursday by JAMA Network Open says.

www.upi.com

 

[Theo520]

. . . .

But I don’t think closing the toilet lid will make any difference in infection rates. Sure, it may be theoretically possible, but the risk is going to be infinitely low. Wiping down touch surfaces between users will make more of a difference.

 

[Theo520]

This is the stat I focus on more than new cases. Perhaps the difference is because we are better at protecting our most vulnerable.

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

 

[Zzyzx_Road]

How many public toilets have lids to begin with?
Then consider the power with which most commercial toilets flush.
And consider what exactly does that odor consist of.

Even at home, this is troublesome if one has to share living space with an infected person. One doesn’t know whether or not the infected person is expelling virus via feces so it is best if that person has their own bathroom that no one else uses. But if that is not possible, then the bathroom surfaces need to be wiped between each person’s usage.