60% of US states are reporting increases in new cases

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One must be careful to not be hoist by one’s own petard.
 
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Most homes here in the US have the toilet in the bathroom itself, while some other countries have the toilet in a separate small room, not sure if it’s a great hygienic idea to have the toilet next to or in the same area where you brush your teeth and use other toiletries.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
Even at home, this is troublesome if one has to share living space with an infected person. One doesn’t know whether or not the infected person is expelling virus via feces so it is best if that person has their own bathroom that no one else uses. But if that is not possible, then the bathroom surfaces need to be wiped between each person’s usage.
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When I was sick with the virus, we kept a spray bottle of a clorox solution handy and I’d wet and wipe surfaces with it’s companion roll of paper towels.
 
buffalo said:
Sooooooo, does this fecal transmission invalidate the lockdowns?
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That’s a matter of debate for some, but not for me.

My take is that we never in our history locked down the healthy. We didn’t do it during the 1968 flu pandemic, we didn’t do it during the 1957 flu pandemic, heck we didn’t even do it during the 1918 pandemic. Nor did we do it for polio which was a scourge during the first half of the 20th century. The economy went down some in those three years, but never anything remotely close to what we intentionally did to ourselves this year.
 
buffalo said:
If one goes for a test twice and tests positive both times does it count for two?
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It depends on how those collecting data classify them. There’s little reason as to why a person who tests positive the first time would need a second test later on. Once infected, there is some immunity (assuming they survived).
 
I’m going to break my arguments apart into their pieces so I can take your rebuttals one at a time. First let’s start with the 10x which you appear to take strong issue with.
NightOwl said:
You said 20% of the population has had the disease. This is FALSE. Less than 2% of the population is confirmed to has had the disease. Some areas surely have much higher rates, but those are ESTIMATES - ranging from 2x to 10x the confirmed rate. This means it is possible 20% in New York either have or had the disease (I think I am one).
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The CDC has accepted the 10x of the confirmed rate as a good estimate.


Personally I think it’s on the low side and there are papers from the antibody studies that Stanford did that support far higher multiples than 10x. But for the sake of argument, I can accept the CDC estimate. If you believe the CDC is full of it here, please provide supporting links.

I specifically mentioned New York state. Their case count as of today is 397,293. I took that number from the NY Times page. NY state population is about 19.4m. This I took from the Census Bureau estimate for 2019. So confirmed case count is just a hair over 2% of the total population. What part of that do you not accept?

So following the CDC methodology, multiply 397,293 by 10 to get 3.973m as an estimate that is acceptable to the CDC. This is just over 20% of the NY state population. What part of this do you not accept?

I will address your other points as I get to them.
 
If we look at individual cities, we can see some stronger indications the protests, riots and “occupations” are indirectly related. I would like to see more of these individual city graphs. I believe Washington state didn’t reopen rapidly and a bit later. Yet this happened:
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And let’s look at Florida. They reopened at the start of May. (As he reopens Florida, DeSantis pushes back on early criticism). But the surge happened only recently. If unlocking was the only contributor, then there should have been a surge 2-3 weeks after each restriction relaxation. Very stable until mid-June.
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More graphs:
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I don’t know. Desantis is blaming bars, specifically college bars for that rise. He’s convinced enough to shut down bars again. That’s a savage economic hit to those businesses to yank back on the reins like that.

A Japanese study also showed that congregation in an indoors environment was 19 times more likely to spread the virus than outdoor activities.

I fully expected to see huge spikes by mid-May because of the thousands of protesters at the state capitols, most of whom didn’t mask. That spike never emerged beyond a few isolated one day spikes that quickly were followed by low rates of positives.

MN hospitalizations are the lowest in several weeks. The only thing that’s different between this state and TX or NC, is these other states reopened bars, restaurants, movie theaters, etc. weeks ago. AZ to my knowledge hasn’t had near the numbers of protesters we had. They’re absolutely slammed.
 
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NightOwl said:
Because those people were not exposed. Why do you think being in the same VICINITY means that they are automatically exposed? Were they wearing masks? Were they isolating in their cabins? Were they social distancing? I asked for a reference that there is EXISTING cross-immunity - meaning that somehow we have immunity to this NOVEL virus. A “novel” virus SPECIFICALLY means there is no cross-immunity. You are misleading people and that is very dangerous.
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A couple of points here:
First, do you accept that a primary vector of Covid-19 transmission in addition to breath is fecal/oral? There is plenty of documentation for that. I supplied some sources upthread.

Fecal/oral spread is real in the case of Covid-19. In general, diseases that spread via fecal/oral transmission are dang hard to control as controlling it takes more than just simple distancing because perfectly healthy people can pick it up on their fingers and spread it everywhere without a strict hand washing and surface cleaning protocol.

The ship population was not confined to their rooms until two weeks after boarding. If one accepts the possibility of fecal/oral spread, then the initial infected crew and passengers had plenty of opportunities during those two weeks to expose non-infected persons to viral loads sufficient for infection. Social distancing and masks may retard but will not prevent fecal/oral spread without very strict hygiene. I can believe that many crew and passengers did not experience a sufficiently high enough viral load. But I cannot believe that every last one of them did not experience a high enough load. That might be true if the spread was by breath only. But we know the spread happens by fecal/oral means as well. So to say every last one of those 3000 did not experience a high enough viral load doesn’t pass the smell test (pun not intended).

So the only thing left in dispute is the degree of immunity in the population. You say there is none at all as you’ve been pushing the “novel” concept, I say it’s probably about 50%. Patience grasshopper, I’ll come back to this part later.
 
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Zzyzx_Road said:
. I can believe that many crew and passengers did not experience a sufficiently high enough viral load. But I cannot believe that every last one of them did not experience a high enough load
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Just a minor point. Being exposed doesn’t equal an immune response. There is a minimum number of viruses thought to even achieve successful infection, somewhere ~1000 at least. Then, it must attach to the A2 receptor to gain access to the cell’s internal organelles and to hijack its processes via RNA transcription. It then uses the cell’s resources to make copies of itself.

It isn’t until the cell lyses and hundreds of copies of the virus are released that an immune response begins to be mounted.

Furthermore, the location of the infection also affects how strong an immune response is mounted. This is why mild upper respiratory infections tend not to confer a very long immune response after the infection is resolved. Lower respiratory infections such as in the lungs tends to get a much more robust response. This is why ARDS can happen - the immune system responds top aggressively leading to catastrophic inflammatory processes.

This is also why there are differences in the amount of antibodies and the length of time they appear between those cases of Covid-19 that were more severe and milder cases, such as those that affected the upper respiratory tract and smelling/ taste but never progressed to the lungs.

Note, so far none of the antibodies results are showing any detectable response beyond about 8 weeks post recovery. For any cases, not even severe ones. This doesn’t mean there’s no immunity but it’s not a good sign.

So, for all kinds of reasons, those people on the ship may not be showing immunity. Firstly, no virus has a 100% infection rate, and you typically have to have 15 to 20 minutes exposure in an ideal climate with proximity to an infected individual for the virus to spread. Secondly, the virus has to be able to bind to the A2 receptor, something that is affected by everything from seasonal allergies to blood type. If it can’t bind in enough numbers to achieve infection, it won’t induce a response from the immune system. Thirdly, even if the immune system does mount an attack, the scale of the attack and the location of the infection affects how robust the body’s response will be to future exposure.

Finally, the antibodies created in response do not appear to last beyond a few months. In which case, the individual would be vulnerable to reinfection. Especially if the virus’s RNA genetic coding has “drifted” enough in subsequent mutations.

I think that like H1N1, were likely going to have this added to yearly vaccine schedule. Or maybe it does like the Spanish flu and mutates to a less dangerous form and fades away after a couple of years.
 
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Mutations that confer a temporary benefit most often lead to long term degradation.
 
JonNC said:
Not anymore. And if we protect the most vulnerable, and take prudent precautions, we don’t have to destroy our economy.
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This is true. The problem is that people are not prudent. Even now that masks are mandatory, some still refuse to wear them, yet still insist on their “right” to work, shop, and interact with the rest of society. There is a balance. We must have production. That means we must be able to mandated safety measures. Personally, I hope police will start issuing those $1000 citations soon to those who defy local orders.
JonNC said:
Florida and Texas spikes aren’t not the fault of Abbott and deSantis.
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Yes, they are, or at least they are responsible, as leaders are. The local increase in cases was predictable, and is now increasing exponentially, three times worse than the previous high mark. Thank goodness bars are back to being closed, along with large gatherings. Locally, cities are mandating masking with the threat of a hefty fine.
 
pnewton said:
This is true. The problem is that people are not prudent. Even now that masks are mandatory, some still refuse to wear them, yet still insist on their “right” to work, shop, and interact with the rest of society. There is a balance. We must have production. That means we must be able to mandated safety measures. Personally, I hope police will start issuing those $1000 citations soon to those who defy local orders.
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I’m a constitutional conservative, and I agree. If government can insist I wear shoes and a shirt in a restaurant for health reasons, it can certainly insist on masks for the same reason.
pnewton said:
Yes, they are, or at least they are responsible, as leaders are.
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Then you must be willing to blame Cuomo, Murphy, Inslee, and Newsom.
pnewton said:
The local increase in cases was predictable,
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Predictable and expected because the shut down was only expected to flatten the curve, not eliminate infections. Local restrictions are appropriate as flair ups happen.
 
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puer.dei said:
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JonNC:
Florida and Texas spikes aren’t not the fault of Abbott and deSantis.
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Even Governor Abbott says it was a mistake to open the bars so soon.
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We’ve made lots of mistakes, but to hold governors Of either party accountable for actions taken in good faith based on limited data is simply political.
 
JonNC said:
Predictable and expected because the shut down was only expected to flatten the curve, not eliminate infections. Local restrictions are appropriate as flair ups happen.
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Why do we insist on dragging out the inevitable?
 
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