Only if you believe that the government produces accurate stats. Wasn’t the accuracy debunked during the Obama years (including on CAF)?
Two quick points:
- take a look at Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly unemployment numbers 2008-2018
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data and you can see (look at the graph) that unemployment has continued to fall under Trump, but the RATE of decline has actually slowed, not increased. In other words, unemployment has been consistently falling since the financial crash of 2008, but Trump (if you’re blaming or crediting the president) has actually slowed the decline in the unemployment rate.
- Unemployment statistics. I once spent an entire two-hour economics class analyzing how the unemployment statistics were calculated. It’s not–as some commenters think–that the government is “inaccurate” or somehow trying to spin the numbers. It’s that there are a series of choices you have to make to come up with the numbers.
For example, what age range do you include? 16 up? 18 up? 17? 21? You have to choose.
What about people that drop out of the job market–do you count them as ‘unemployed’? If you do, how do you distinguish between the guy who wins the lottery or inherits a pot of money and doesn’t WANT to work and the guy who’s been looking for a job for two+ years and gives up? You can’t interview the whole population. How do you tell the difference?
What about part-time work? At what point to you say someone is fully employed? Do you count hours per week? If so, how many? Do you count three jobs at 20 + 20 + 10 hours per week as “full employment” even if the person gets no benefits at all?
What about people who have taken a job at McDonald’s to pay the rent, but who have a PhD in physics and are trying to get a job in that field? Fully employed or not?
Do you adjust for seasonal employment (UPS jobs at Christmas, farm jobs in summer and fall)?
What do you do with people who are not working right now, but will return to work–and they are guaranteed a job? (reserve soldiers called up for six months, women taking a 3-month maternity leave, people on disability temporarily because of illness…)
How do you actually gather the statistics? Random poll of the general population? Phone poll? Mail? Door to door survey? Random sample of companies? Do you sample the same companies each month or different ones? Do companies use the same definitions you do for “full time”?
You can go on and on and on. The point is that to create any set of statistics, you have to make a LOT of arbitrary choices of what to include and what to exclude. As long as you’re consistent over time–you don’t change the rules every year–you can compare.