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President Hillary’s Inevitability
Lets not get ahead of ourselves
And why would they step aside? By all accounts, Hillary Clinton is a hard worker, but her tenure as secretary of state has by no means been stellar. Have you taken a look at how this administration has left the so-called Arab Spring? In addition to myriad questions over the death of diplomats in Benghazi, our “from-behind” president now watches as as rebels and Christians face increasingly violent crackdowns in Syria and Egypt.
“She’s been at the heart of foreign policy for the past four years,” John J. Pitney Jr., a professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College observes. “If 2016 is a time of international peace and prosperity, then she’ll be able to claim some credit. But current events in the Middle East suggest a darker future. If things don’t look so good on the world stage, she’ll have to take a lot of the blame.”
With all her purported influence in the first term of the Obama administration, “she did zero to rein in Obama’s worst tendencies” on foreign policy, James Carafano of the Heritage Foundation notes. “If we set aside the bonus her legacy gets from her last name, then Clinton should go down as the least effective secretary of state since Warren Christopher,” Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official, says. “Her tenure has been marked by bashing allies and coddling adversaries to the detriment of U.S. national security,” he adds. “She might brag about being the most traveled secretary of state, but the position isn’t a frequent-flyer tier. She has no real achievements to her tenure, but she has overseen a hemorrhaging of U.S. influence that cannot be attributed to her predecessors but rather to the ill-advised strategies she sought to implement. If Hillary does to the country what she did to the world, then we are in very deep trouble indeed.”
Still, expect more of the Hillary talk. Governors who might be running in a few years aren’t household names, unlike the secretary of state. “The late Lee Atwater used to talk about ‘the invisible circle,’ the very small number of political figures that the public knows and can accept as potential presidents,” John J. Pitney Jr. says. “That is, if voters woke up and found that one of these people was in the White House, they could go back to sleep knowing that he or she could do the job. In their day, Nelson Rockefeller and Hubert Humphrey were in the invisible circle. Among Democrats not named Obama, who is there today? Hillary Clinton, full stop.”
Being in the “invisible circle” does not guarantee success. Nor should it. It’s other members “had liabilities, and so does Secretary Clinton,” Pitney continues. “First, she will be 69 at the time of the 2016 election. Unfair as the perception may be, some people will think she’s too old. Second, if voters are in the mood for a change, her credentials will work against her. After her many years at the center of Washington, the icon for ‘change’ would be a picture of her with a red slash through it. Third, all the Clinton-era litter would blow back onto her front lawn. Remember her mysterious success at commodity trading? Don’t worry: Oppo guys will remember it for you.”
hotair.com/archives/2012/12/10/newt-lets-face-it-hillarys-going-to-be-awfully-tough-to-beat-in-2016I’ve long had a lot of respect for Hillary Clinton — the Daughters of the American Revolution accurately dubbed her a good citizen back when she was in high school. Certainly, she appreciated the power and importance of public service early in her life. But we can respect that without getting silly. There’s a photo of Hillary outside a Kennedy Center gala in Washington, in which we see Meryl Streep taking an iPhone photo of them both. The image captures the seriousness (or lack thereof) of some of the current political commentary about 2012, whether it’s on Clinton or Rubio and Ryan. Don’t run with it.
Is it “virtually” impossible to stop her in the primaries or is it impossible? Democrats need to overcome eight years of big-government fatigue and win a third straight presidential election. Their bench is far thinner than the GOP’s, except for an internationally famous, extremely popular former first lady turned senator turned Secretary of State who’s angling to make history as the first woman president. What Democratic voter in his or her right mind is going to roll the dice on Cuomo or Martin O’Malley or whoever when they could take their chances with Hillary! and the Clinton machine instead?
Here’s the real question. What does the near-inevitability of Hillary’s nomination mean for the GOP primaries in 2016? I think Republican voters will feel tremendous pressure to nominate someone with enough star power of their own that they won’t be completely overshadowed by her in the general. That’s good news for Rubio and Chris Christie, not such good news for Jindal and Rand Paul. Rubio would also benefit insofar as he and Jindal would likely be the only Republicans with a “historic candidacy” narrative capable of somewhat neutralizing Hillary’s. The wild card is Jeb Bush, insofar as he’s the only prospective nominee — at least right now — whose “brand” is as well known as the Clintons’. Is that a good thing in his case, though? Asking voters whether they want to revisit the Clinton era or the Bush era seems, shall we say, not so smart; besides, if you nominate Jeb, you forfeit the talking point that the other side’s candidate is old news, a stale dynastic offering at a moment when a new, more diverse America is being born. Exit question: Would Rubio want to challenge Hillary?