Obama and Romney hit the final stretch

[ishii]

Ishii, I did no such thing. I provided you with a link saying Obama won the debate. But if you read my first sentence, I said the race more or less had become stable. People still had the first debate in mind after the second. Romney had plenty of debate practice in the primaries. Obama did not this yr. It is not unusual for a President who has not gone through the primary debate process for 4 yrs to lose the first debate. Obama was hardly the first. And some have gone on to win reelection nonetheless. Also in that first debate Obama had no idea a different Romney was going to show up for the month of Oct after yrs of another Romney campaigning for the Presidency. But after the first one, Obama knew what to expect from Romney which was helpful in the President winning the 2nd and 3rd debates as indicated in several polls that he did.
.

Cmatt - how is it that a candidate who loses a debate, goes up in the polls? Are those polled just not as smart as you? Were those polled after the 2nd debate only thinking of the 1st debate? Why did those polled after the 2nd debate say that they trusted Romney to deal with our economic problems, over Obama? Your analysis falls short - but I can understand that its because you want your guy to win.

Ishii

 

[SwissGuard25]

Who disagrees with that? Doesn’t tell me who to vote for, but of course we love Jesus.

It says vote for Jesus. It means stop supporting politicians and start supporting God.

P.S. - Catholics supported democrats in 2008, and often do. They are hardly in league with republicans, even simply statistically. They’d get a lot more support on here if they dropped the pro-death platform.

I’m not saying all Catholics are republicans i am saying most Catholics align themselves with the party. And you’re correct there, main reasons why Catholics don’t go all the way with the Democratic Party is pro-life and traditional marriage reasons.

P.P.S. - you argued for love of Jesus, but then presumed to judge why either candidate is running, both of course for selfish reasons. Come on…

Ha! We all judge the candidates but that is our job as American Voters is it not? We judge them on a moral, and political scale. The two seems to be lacking the moral part

 

[markomalley]

From WBBM:Chicago Store-Owner Labeled ‘Racist’ For Anti-Obama Business Sign
An outspoken and controversial shopkeeper who has been a fixture in Lincoln Square for the past dozen years has been targeted by a vandal.

75-year-old Sam Wolfson owns String a Strand bead shop.

And he wears his heart on his sleeve. His political leanings – anti-Obama – are posted on his store window.
Here is the sign:

http://i.imm.io/J0U9.jpeg

Agree or disagree with the content, how are either of the two signs “racist”?

BTW, on edit, recognizing that some may not recall the “bow” incident (hopefully the “you didn’t build that” incident is recent enough for all to remember):

From HuffPo:

**Obama “Bow” To Saudis: CNN Reporter Asks White House To Clarify **
The White House briefing room grew a bit chilly on Thursday after CNN reporter Dan Lothian asked press secretary Robert Gibbs to explain the current cause célèbre of the conservative movement: whether President Obama bowed down to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

LOTHIAN: When the President met with King Abdullah, there was something that took place which I believe the White House explained was just the president being taller than the king. We took a look at the video, and it does appear that the president actually bowed to King Abdullah. Did he bow or didn’t he?

GIBBS: No, I think he bent over with both, to shake – with both hands to shake his hand, so I don’t–

LOTHIAN: – one hand –

GIBBS: Well I… [laughter]

LOTHIAN: Did he bow or didn’t he?
You can Google the picture of the incident for yourself.

Bottom line, the store owner made nothing up here.

 

[stinkcat_14]

Well, I don’t know if they did a study asking folks “why are you moving from the city to the burb?” That’s a pretty narrow requirement you have there. Anyway, here is a start regarding the types of dynamics responsible for white flight.

From wikipedia:

A practice further reinforcing unofficial segregation in states outside the South, where racial segregation was legal, were exclusionary covenants in title deeds and real estate neighborhood redlining[19] — explicit, legally sanctioned racial discrimination in real property ownership and lending practices. Black Americans were effectively barred from pursuing homeownership, even when they were able to afford it.[17] Suburban expansion was reserved for middle-class and working-class white people, facilitated by their increased wages incurred by the war effort and by subsequent federally guaranteed mortgages (VA, FHA, HOLC) available only to whites to buy new houses. Blacks and other minorities were relegated to a state of permanent rentership.[20

I guess I am interested in what drives your skepticism of this well documented phenomena.

Actually, suburbanization itself has been going on for well over a century, as well as segregation by income. What has happened here is that a process that has been going on for a century, continued, and then liberals jump to a conclusion which cannot be supported by the data. What is clear is many people have a preference for living in the suburbs. This is motivated by a number of legitimate preferences and possibly some illegitimate ones. The problem is that people like you jump to a conclusion without establishing the causal link.

Clearly you do understand the difference between correlation and causation don’t you?
[/quote]

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Actually, suburbanization itself has been going on for well over a century, as well as segregation by income. What has happened here is that a process that has been going on for a century, continued, and then liberals jump to a conclusion which cannot be supported by the data. What is clear is many people have a preference for living in the suburbs. This is motivated by a number of legitimate preferences and possibly some illegitimate ones. The problem is that people like you jump to a conclusion without establishing the causal link.

Clearly you do understand the difference between correlation and causation don’t you?

There is a natural phenomenon identified as 'homophily", defined by Wikipedia below:

Homophily’ (i.e., “love of the same”) is the tendency of individuals to associate and bond with similar others. The presence of homophily has been discovered in a vast array of network studies. More than 100 studies that have observed homophily in some form or another and they establish that similarity breeds connection. These include age, gender, class, and organizational role. This is often expressed in the adage “birds of a feather flock together”.

It is not necessarily true that neighborhoods draw people for exclusionary reasons. Rather, people are naturally drawn to neighborhoods where they share common values or characteristics with their neighbors. Personally, I believe most people cluster in common neighborhoods based on class distinctions, versus race or religion.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

DIRECT FROM CAESAR’S PALACE

A Las Vegas “odds maker” gives his reasons for big win by Romney in November. Interesting analysis.

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year’s Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

**Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christian. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

**Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

**Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

**Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

**Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. As I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

**Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

**Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception, it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

**Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying, I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago, but he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today. Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.

lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2012-06-22/las-vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-obama-will-have-landslide-loss

Interesting read, eh?

 

[JustaServant]

From WBBM:Chicago Store-Owner Labeled ‘Racist’ For Anti-Obama Business Sign
An outspoken and controversial shopkeeper who has been a fixture in Lincoln Square for the past dozen years has been targeted by a vandal.

75-year-old Sam Wolfson owns String a Strand bead shop.

And he wears his heart on his sleeve. His political leanings – anti-Obama – are posted on his store window.
Here is the sign:

http://i.imm.io/J0U9.jpeg

Agree or disagree with the content, how are either of the two signs “racist”?

BTW, on edit, recognizing that some may not recall the “bow” incident (hopefully the “you didn’t build that” incident is recent enough for all to remember):

From HuffPo:

**Obama “Bow” To Saudis: CNN Reporter Asks White House To Clarify **
The White House briefing room grew a bit chilly on Thursday after CNN reporter Dan Lothian asked press secretary Robert Gibbs to explain the current cause célèbre of the conservative movement: whether President Obama bowed down to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.

LOTHIAN: When the President met with King Abdullah, there was something that took place which I believe the White House explained was just the president being taller than the king. We took a look at the video, and it does appear that the president actually bowed to King Abdullah. Did he bow or didn’t he?

GIBBS: No, I think he bent over with both, to shake – with both hands to shake his hand, so I don’t–

LOTHIAN: – one hand –

GIBBS: Well I… [laughter]

LOTHIAN: Did he bow or didn’t he?
You can Google the picture of the incident for yourself.

Bottom line, the store owner made nothing up here.

Not to defend Obama, but I don’t recall anyone getting upset when our leaders bow to the Queen of England.

 

[_Abyssinia]

DIRECT FROM CAESAR’S PALACE

A Las Vegas “odds maker” gives his reasons for big win by Romney in November. Interesting analysis.

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year’s Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

**Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christian. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

**Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

**Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

**Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

**Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. As I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

**Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

**Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception, it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

**Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying, I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago, but he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today. Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.

lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2012-06-22/las-vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-obama-will-have-landslide-loss

Interesting read, eh?

Romney Now Beating Obama among Jewish Voters

 

[_Abyssinia]

Guilford County voters say they voted for the wrong candidate

The Presidential election is just around the corner and voting issues have already become a problem in Guilford County.

On Monday, several voters complained that their electronic ballot machine cast the wrong vote. All the complaints were made by people who voted at the Bur-Mil Park polling location.

One of the voters, Sher Coromalis, says she cast her ballot for Governor Mitt Romney, but every time she entered her vote it defaulted to President Obama.

“I was so upset that this could happen,” said Coromalis.

Guilford County Board of Elections Director George Gilbert says the problem arises every election. It can be resolved after the machine is re-calibrated by poll workers.

“It’s not a conspiracy it’s just a machine that needs to be corrected,” Gilbert said.

After the third try, Coromalis says she was able to get her vote counted for Gov. Romney but was still annoyed.

“I should have just mailed it in,” Coromalis said.

Elections officials say the machines have been fixed as of Tuesday, and no problems have been reported since.

Early Voting ends November 3.

Why didn’t they calibrate the machine before anybody voted?

 

[St_Francis]

Not to defend Obama, but I don’t recall anyone getting upset when our leaders bow to the Queen of England.

Standard protocol is that the US president does not bow to those who are equal to him in rank, other heads of state. I have never heard that another president bowed to a head of state (except for Bush Sr who bowed to the casket of Emperor Hirohito, for which he was criticized); could you provide evidence that this happened?

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Romney Now Beating Obama among Jewish Voters

The article is dated October 11th. Any updates on the Jewish vote?

 

[stinkcat_14]

There is a natural phenomenon identified as 'homophily", defined by Wikipedia below:

Homophily’ (i.e., “love of the same”) is the tendency of individuals to associate and bond with similar others. The presence of homophily has been discovered in a vast array of network studies. More than 100 studies that have observed homophily in some form or another and they establish that similarity breeds connection. These include age, gender, class, and organizational role. This is often expressed in the adage “birds of a feather flock together”.

It is not necessarily true that neighborhoods draw people for exclusionary reasons. Rather, people are naturally drawn to neighborhoods where they share common values or characteristics with their neighbors. Personally, I believe most people cluster in common neighborhoods based on class distinctions, versus race or religion.

People have clustered based on income for more than a century. Part of this is economic, people will often seek to avoid having their income redistributed, so if people with higher incomes cluster together they will probably have bigger houses and can keep their property taxes lower. Of course, people like our friend see this and automatically jump to the conclusion of racism. They even get incredulous when you actually start pressing them for evidence. That is my main problem with the whole field of sociology, it seems they have a pre-ordained conclusion (like racism) and then search for anything that might be correlated with it as their proof.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Yikes! My wife and I are vacationing in Indian Shores, Florida, and we are going to the Columbia Restaurant in Ybor City tonight. I just noticed this article from the Drudge Report concerning the lack of crowds expected for an Obama campaign stop:

Tickets are still available for President Barack Obama’s campaign appearance in Tampa on Thursday, campaign officials said today. The location opens at 7 a.m. for his visit to Centennial Park, 1800 E. 8th Ave., in Ybor City.

I know security will be around today in anticipation of tomorrow’s event. Think traffic, parking or anything else might be affected today?

 

[St_Francis]

Yikes! My wife and I are vacationing in Indian Shores, Florida, and we are going to the Columbia Restaurant in Ybor City tonight. I just noticed this article from the Drudge Report concerning the lack of crowds expected for an Obama campaign stop:

Tickets are still available for President Barack Obama’s campaign appearance in Tampa on Thursday, campaign officials said today. The location opens at 7 a.m. for his visit to Centennial Park, 1800 E. 8th Ave., in Ybor City.

I know security will be around today in anticipation of tomorrow’s event. Think traffic, parking or anything else might be affected today?

Yes.

 

[colmywaykurtz]

We can parse numbers and "trends"till the Second Coming, but the real deal will be seen Nov 6. And I took advantage of early voting yesterday and cast my vote for Obama.

 

[scipio337]

Wow! Croat Catholic and Bosnian Moslem marriages. And, they get along well? God bless them!

It’s an interesting mix. My wife’s best friend is a Croat married to a Bosnian. Most Bosnians I’ve met are considered “Cultural Muslims”, who won’t eat pork, but many have never been inside a mosque. The mixed couples often joke “we fought for centuries only to move here and get married!”

In my wife’s friend’s case, we helped to get their kids placed in PSR class in my old parish. The dad was fully supportive.

 

[Robert_Sock]

Too bad you did not create a category for those, like me, who do not plan on voting.

 

[exoflare]

And I took advantage of early voting yesterday and cast my vote for Obama.

Hopefully now you can take advantage of an early confession.

 

[Rich_Olszewski]

Too bad you did not create a category for those, like me, who do not plan on voting.

Mark Twain: “If voting made any difference, they’d have made it illegal.”

 

[Dawnia]

Rassmussen is showing Romney up to 50% from 49% yesterday. Obama is down from 47% to 46% nationally.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll