Possible Trump Win?

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Biden acts like a normal person most of the time, which I can’t say about President Trump. I’ve said it before, but I think after 3.75 years of chaos and disruption, people are ready for a predictable, even dull candidate to hold the office. There is a palpable fatigue with the endless controversies, tweets, unpresidential behavior and so on.
 
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Rockoh22 said:
If you see that chart. Did not Trump had like a 30+ approval? So he now has 42.6. It is more support
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Well, yes, you’re right. It is higher than the lowest point.
Rockoh22 said:
How many people have left either party? Or switched Party? I heard a commentator say that republicans are not getting new registered voters, but what they are getting is democrats switching to republicans.
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I found this, which basically says it’s remained constant. But, remember, voters are constantly added to the rolls.


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All of which has been propagated by those who still cannot get over losing 4 years ago.It a real shame that there couldn’t have been a gracious peaceful transition of power.However the nefarious plans were already in the works in the event Trump should win.God Bless him for all he has endured and still managed to be an awesome president for all this Nation.
The tweets and rants that you and all opposed to him dislike,are a rmechanism of being able to state the truth in light of all the media working against him in concert with the left/ Dems.It is shameful and exhausting. I pray his next four years will be more copacetic
 
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I think President Trump thinks it’s still 2016 based on the way he’s running his campaign, but now he’s a known quantity to voters, with a record in office he has to defend, and we’re in the middle of a pandemic that he hasn’t been very successful at dealing with, and that will make it a lot harder for him to win.
 
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jeannetherese said:
In fact, most news sources and pollsters were predicting victory for Mrs. Clinton.
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Annnnd, remember that she did, indeed, garner three million more votes than Trump did. They weren’t in the right places, but the national polls were correct.

The takeaway is to look at battleground state polls as well as the national polls.
 
I guess Trump is who he is; you either love his behavior or you don’t. Some people have an issue with it (and I don’t think it’s just the media or how he’s presented in it - his tweets for example are straight from the source, no filter).
 
On the other hand, we may see many more gravitating to the Republican party as the party of law and order given the rioting on the part of those identifying with the left over the course of the summer.
Republicans weren’t burning down local businesses and looting stores and some of the communities which went out for dismantling the police have discovered that that stance makes their lives less peaceful and safe.


From the article:
"They then proposed an amendment to the city’s charter to put on the November ballot. It called for replacing the police department with a new entity of community safety and violence prevention.
Instead, they faced public opposition, most vocally from North Minneapolis, a largely black neighbourhood, which saw a dramatic rise in gun crime and robberies after Floyd’s death. Residents have become so alarmed they are suing the city.

“We have historically had victims of violence by police,” said Cathy Spann, a community organiser, at a recent neighbourhood gathering. “But we are under siege right now with gunfire every single night. The council has to bring in extra force to stop this from happening!”
 
Ah, that is what the guys was talking about.

Look at 2020 and 2016 respectively same time before election.
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2020 Sep 14-28 28(R) 42(I) 27(D)
2016 Sep 14-18 27(R). 40(I) 32(D)

+1(R ) +2(I) -5(D)

Republicans went from 27 to 28
Democrats went from 32 to 27
Independents from 40 to 42

Republicans and Independents went up, while Democrats went down. The was what the guy talked about. I found that a fair point to make.
 
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Did five thirty-eight ignore the battleground states when making its predictions?


though. The most important concentration of polling errors was regional: Polls understated Trump’s margin by 4 points or more in a group of Midwestern states that he was expected to mostly lose but mostly won: Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
STATEAVG. POLLING MARGINELECTION RESULTOVERPERFORMANCE
Utah+9.9+18.4+8.5
Ohio+2.0+8.6+6.6
Wisconsin-5.4+1.0+6.4
Iowa+3.4+9.6+6.2
Pennsylvania-3.7+1.2+4.9
Minnesota-5.9-1.4+4.5
North Carolina-0.7+3.8+4.5
Michigan-4.0+0.3+4.3
Maine-6.9-3.0+3.9
New Hampshire-3.5-0.2+3.3
Arizona+2.4+4.4+2.0
Florida-0.6+1.3+1.9
Colorado-3.8-2.1+1.7
Georgia+4.0+5.7+1.7
Virginia-5.4-4.7+0.7
Nevada-0.7-2.4-1.7
New Mexico-5.3-8.3-3.0
Trump mostly outperformed his swing state polls

FiveThirtyEight polls-only model adjusted polling average in “states to watch.” Election results as of Nov. 9 at
 
Behaviour and personality aside.How can you object to all he has accomplished these past four years,in spite of all the obstacles and distractions from the nasty/Dems? Don’t bring up the virus again as that seems to be your arguing point.President Trump has done no better or worse than any other country. This virus has just become the talking point for those who just don’t like him.I have never heard you or anyone else mention his accomplishments.Thats very telling IMO
 
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I try to be fair - I think I congratulated him on assassinating that Iranian terror mastermind - but to be honest I find his accomplishments to be underwhelming, and not worth the Faustian bargain. I’m just trying to say a lot of people find his behavior unpresidential, and beyond the pale. You don’t, obviously, and that’s your right.

I would feel the same way had there been no pandemic, however I think that his handling of it is what has become the defining characteristic of his presidency, and why he appears to be losing. He has very devoted followers, to be sure, but not enough to counter the people who are in dire straits because of everything that’s happened since March. The country seems to be adrift and his style of leadership isn’t reassuring to those who feel we’re going over a waterfall in a barrel.
 
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OraLabora said:
I wonder how many voters will realize that they are actually voting Ms. Harris for president?
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Did you see the cover of the Spectator a couple of weeks ago?

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If the leader of the party were someone that projected an aura of stability that might be true but as it is he tends to pour gasoline on these flare ups and make them even more explosive (as when he had riot police clear the protestors from in front of the White House só he could do the photo op in front of the church).
 
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Thriving economy before we were hit with the Wuhan virus.Lowest unemployment for blacks and Hispanics.Four Nobel peace nominations for his successful efforts in bringing peace to the ME
prison reform,no new wars…still unwhelmed? 🤨
3 SCOTUS confirmations
 
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I will give him credit for changing the terms of the debate on things like America’s relationship with her traditional allies. I think because of his accomplishment there’s been a reckoning with the bipartisan consensus on free trade that has yet to be worked out. A similar thing is going on in the U.K.

But look at the expectations he raised when he won the office - he was going to physically seal us off from Mexico, renegotiate all of our trade agreements and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. (Also he said he has a plan to replace Obamacare with something better but that never materialized.) Have any of these things come to pass? I think these things are all based on misconceptions and an exaggerated sense of the U.S. being a victim of some sort. There was a sense that someone could just flip a switch and manufacturing would return to the U.S. as if by magic. These things are complex problems that can’t be solved by slogans and one-dimensional thinking.

I have no problem with the judges he has nominated; I just think a normal Republican would have done the same thing.

I think the problem here is that he wasn’t disciplined enough to learn how to govern, and implement the agenda he was elected on to create long-lasting changes. But he got people to sit up and take notice.
 
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From my point of view, the things Trump has accomplished is because he listened to his advisors and followed their advice. The things that have failed or never materialized from his promises are because he didn’t listen and assumed he could “business skill” it into happening. I give him credit for keeping the economy on the upswing he inherited from Obama and the ME peace accords…which I think he had very little involvement on his part. He just went with the pros on that. I was unsure about the tax cuts and I still am. I benefited a bit but my kids didn’t. It helped an upward economy continue but I think the price for that is down the road.

I appreciate his anti abortion stance and actions even though I think he really doesn’t personally care and I’m not thrilled with his SC appointments though I understand why conservatives are. I also can not get past his personality and how he’s irritated our friends overseas and chummed up with our enemies. I agree that the EU should have been paying more of their fair share but I do not appreciate how he went about it. They all think he’s an idiot. Yes, they do!
 
He didn’t inherit a good economy from Obama.That the same talking point the Dems have used for the past four years.it nonsense
Re our allies overseas. They resent him because he has the courage to not just go along with the flow.If he isn’t popular in Europe he must be doing something right.
Who cares if they think he’s a idiot.He isn’t .
 
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