Trump Thread (cont.)

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_Abyssinia said:
While Moody’s model says a Democrat will win, the majority of election models are showing a Republican win in November (Helmut Norpoth’s election model is showing a win for Trump against Clinton, but not Cruz against Clinton): lifezette.com/polizette/models-predict-gop-win-even-with-trump/
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Ha! I just said that. I believe this is accurate. Hillary is incredibly vulnerable; the left puts on a good front (to themselves and others :)). Trump can beat her. Cruz cannot. I don’t about Kasich; he could probably do it too.
 
Vouthon said:
I don’t feel that Trump can beat Clinton or even come close to doing so. His comments and style have caused such mass outrage not only in the US but abroad. He won’t fare as badly as Cruz though, I concur.
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No offense meant to you Vouthon, but most people in this country don’t care what the rest of the world thinks. Only people on the left here do, and they only care about what the left thinks overseas. Europe, for example, loved Obama, but look where that has gotten them; a revanchist Russia and radical Islamists from the Middle EAstern war zones killing and raping there.

Maybe European disfavor should be considered a “plus” for candidates in the U.S. You live in Britain. What has “Europe” (as a whole) done for Britain lately? Obviously it hasn’t been universally loved in Britain or there would be talk of a “Brexit”.

Truth is, Vouthon, the only thing standing between utter despotism and the world is the Anglosphere. Obviously, I include Britain in that as well as the U.S., Canada and Australia as well as a handful of others. Britain would do well to accept that its rougher-cut American cousins compose most of the “family” Britain actually has. Some things should be overlooked. 🙂
 
Vouthon said:
I don’t feel that Trump can beat Clinton or even come close to doing so. His comments and style have caused such mass outrage not only in the US but abroad. He won’t fare as badly as Cruz though, I concur.
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Trump will move to the center in a big way in the general election. He will restructure his campaign onto much more moderate, Democrat friendly territory. Expect major shifts on immigration, social issues, foreign policy. Trump will go for the jugular - against Hillary and for the center voters, left and right. Corey Lewandowski, the Tweet wars, all distant history. And the world will follow the Americans in submission. It was all an act anyway.
 
FollowChrist34 said:
Trump will move to the center in a big way in the general election. He will restructure his campaign onto much more moderate, Democrat friendly territory. Expect major shifts on immigration, social issues, foreign policy. Trump will go for the jugular - against Hillary and for the center voters, left and right. Corey Lewandowski, the Tweet wars, all distant history. And the world will follow the Americans in submission. It was all an act anyway.
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Well, if he makes major shifts, that’s ammunition against him. He will send the message that he can’t be trusted and that he doesn’t know what he’s doing. And, no one has the nomination yet.
 
FollowChrist34 said:
Trump will move to the center in a big way in the general election. He will restructure his campaign onto much more moderate, Democrat friendly territory. Expect major shifts on immigration, social issues, foreign policy. Trump will go for the jugular - against Hillary and for the center voters, left and right. Corey Lewandowski, the Tweet wars, all distant history. And the world will follow the Americans in submission. It was all an act anyway.
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What makes you think that Trump will pivot towards the center? He does what he wants, even if it against conventional wisdom. He picks a fight with Megyn Kelly and Fox News. He slams President Bush for not keeping us safe. He picks on Ted Cruz’ wife. Call Marco Rubio names. He doesn’t have a coherent position on almost anything. There’s nothing to pivot. He doesn’t follow the rules.
 
Crossbones said:
What makes you think that Trump will pivot towards the center? He does what he wants, even if it against conventional wisdom. He picks a fight with Megyn Kelly and Fox News. He slams President Bush for not keeping us safe. He picks on Ted Cruz’ wife. Call Marco Rubio names. He doesn’t have a coherent position on almost anything. There’s nothing to pivot. He doesn’t follow the rules.
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That was the old Trump.
 
Lily_Bernans said:
Well, if he makes major shifts, that’s ammunition against him. He will send the message that he can’t be trusted and that he doesn’t know what he’s doing. And, no one has the nomination yet.
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That is what is so brilliant. He can do whatever he wants, say whatever he wants. It is the appeal of celebrity, a winner. Obama had it. Besides Trump is smart; he is figuring out how to play the media, the delegates, the center where he needs to go. He just held his first “diversity” rally - of many, women, minorities, Muslims in attendance. Clinton and Sanders now question NATO, should it be revamped; where have we heard that before. People are cowards; Trump is not. That is the secret sauce. He says what others are afraid to. He pushes back on left extremism. (but again is cool on abortion) Because of this celebrity, Obama-esque coolness he can go center on social issues, big time (picture an Iron Dome over him). No squawking from the base. Legal abortion is cool if you don’t personally support it. 🙂

You don’t have to believe me. Just sit back and watch your TV until November.
 
Ridgerunner said:
No offense meant to you Vouthon, but most people in this country don’t care what the rest of the world thinks.
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LOL, I know this - all too well - which happens to be why I continue to stick my nose in 😉 That and the fact that the outcome of your elections matters so much for the rest of the planet…We all will be impacted by who you guys put in the Oval Office, so you can hardly blame us for having an opinion. We aren’t talking about electing the President of the Central African Republic here. Your decision as an electorate really, really matters…

There is definitely an American tendency to stick two fingers up to outside opinion. Methinks it stems from that exceptional ism thingy…and perhaps the fact that your still the undisputed global hegemon with unrivalled economic, military and cultural clout (I’m wearing jeans at the moment, for instance).

“Only people on the left here do, and they only care about what the left thinks overseas. Europe, for example, loved Obama, but look where that has gotten them; a revanchist Russia and radical Islamists from the Middle EAstern war zones killing and raping there.”

I must admit - with some pride - that I was never party to the Obama love - in lavished upon him by many others over here in Europe. My mother and I both preferred McCain when watching the news. I was only 15/16 at the time and the girls in my class were all gaga for Obama. Even bought his biography. And that was the British girls. I don’t blame them since our politicians are often ugly but there you go. 😃

My grandfather coolly predicted that (and I quote), “this young man will come in and fix everything up”. I debated that claim with him. I knew that the race issue would be a sure fire motivator for his campaign though, understandably given the history of segregation. That and his good looks, oratory and charm. I felt at the time that there was a naive political messianism about all the “can we do it, yes we can”, however.

Turns out I was largely right. I detect similar messianism this time from the right vis-a-vis Trump.
 
Vouthon said:
LOL, I know this - all too well - which happens to be why I continue to stick my nose in 😉 There is definitely an American tendency to stick two fingers up to outside opinion. Methinks it stems from that exceptional ism thingy…and perhaps the fact that your still the undisputed global hegemon with unrivalled economic, military and cultural clout (I’m wearing jeans at the moment, for instance).
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Ha! We got it from you all, pardner. We got it from you. How could you not know that? The sooner you Brits accept that, the better off you’ll be.

Where do you think we got the notion that there actually is a better system of governance in which citizens could thumb their nose at the sovereign and live to tell the tale? From the fields of Runneymede on, you taught us and our ancestors that. Yes, and that every man’s home is his castle; one that he has a right to defend. That came from you. You pretend to be aghast at our gun owning, and yet your kings encouraged every man-jack in England; required him to, have a longbow in his home ready to defend the homeland or take abroad to fight the inflated potentates that threatened.

You taught us our “Cold War mentality” in the English Channel and at Waterloo. And as for distant defense, Nelson is still on his pedestal in Trafalgar Square, isn’t he?

Where did the “warrior culture” of our South come from? Goodness, man, from the very “Borderers” you threw at Ireland, Australia, America and the world because you knew they would fight. Do you not know they’re virtually all Scots-Irish?

And if, now and then, some American politician waxes exclusionary, is that anything other than a watered-down and somewhat domesticated version of “Wogs begin at Calais”?
And if we sometimes seem to you less than worshipful of “cultural diversity” one only needs to remember the even less worshipful words of Charles Napier concerning the Indian practice of Suttee.

You Brits ought to simply apply for statehood and make done with it. Our Supreme Court is sufficiently elastic now to accept at least a tug of the forelock to the Queen. If it can accept abortion and homosexual marriage, it would hardly choke on the idea of a queen, at least in the State of Britain. And with your population, you would dominate American politics. But you would need a preparatory and intensive study of the merits of Anglo Saxon civilization first, of course.
 
Ridgerunner said:
Maybe European disfavor should be considered a “plus” for candidates in the U.S. You live in Britain. What has “Europe” (as a whole) done for Britain lately? Obviously it hasn’t been universally loved in Britain or there would be talk of a “Brexit”.
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I don’t know. Europeans liked Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan…Reagan is practically venerated in Eastern Europe, for somewhat obvious reasons. In the West conservatives greatly admire him, for instance the UK Conservative Party. We also liked Kennedy and he was pretty rubbish (ie Bay of Pigs) prior to his untimely death though…but then Americans were the same with him…

And that’s the thing: there’s nobody in Thatcher 's Party that appears to like Trump. Insiders say they are all hoping for a Hillary victory, which is unprecedented for a party who traditionally saw it’s sister party abroad as the Repubs. You will recall the Transatlantic love affair between Maggie and Ronnie at the height of the Cold War.

And to be fair, practically nobody likes Trump outside the US - not just Europe. I doubt your Mexican neighbours are looking forward to paying for his wall. His voice also grates my ears. Horribly loud and brash…
 
Vouthon said:
I don’t know. Europeans liked Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan…Reagan is practically venerated in Eastern Europe, for somewhat obvious reasons. In the West conservatives greatly admire him, for instance the UK Conservative Party. We also liked Kennedy and he was pretty rubbish (ie Bay of Pigs) prior to his untimely death though…but then Americans were the same with him…

And that’s the thing: there’s nobody in Thatcher 's Party that appears to like Trump. Insiders say they are all hoping for a Hillary victory, which is unprecedented for a party who traditionally saw it’s sister party abroad as the Repubs. You will recall the Transatlantic love affair between Maggie and Ronnie at the height of the Cold War.

And to be fair, practically nobody likes Trump outside the US - not just Europe. I doubt your Mexican neighbours are looking forward to paying for his wall. His voice also grates my ears. Horribly loud and brash…
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But what if he dramatically moves to the center? The general campaign is always very different from the primaries. Candidates always readjust. The primaries are aimed at the base. Trump can afford to really pivot; his base will never vote for Hillary. And they are slavishly devoted to him and don’t know/care what he stands for anyway. It is all about image, emotion - Obama-like or Sanders.

Europe will warm to him - they have no choice. Especially when he goes “Chris Christie” with the platform. I understand your fears but they are groundless. I was like that too, but the fact that liberal New York Republicans are so into him should tell you something. They know him better than you or me or Sean Hannity. You are afraid of a straw man that has been created by anti Trump forces on the left and right. (woe to those who like that guy too - but that is another issue)
 
At the risk of piling on, Vouthon, there’s not a foul word Trump ever uttered that isn’t in Shakespeare. Recite with me: “If the hart do lack a hind…”. Finish it. or "…I can tell by her "C"s, her “U"s…etc”

And Chaucer too. Nicholas was branded on the bum because he let fly a …what?

And think about this too. In our sometime electoral follies, you might serve up a Churchill or a Thatcher to save the day. You could do worse.
 
Vouthon said:
I doubt your Mexican neighbours are looking forward to paying for his wall.
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Then peradventure their government might stop printing instructions for their people on how to illegally enter the U.S.; possibly even stop taking bribes from drug lords to take drugs into this country on the backs of unwilling “mules”. They think less of their people than we do, by far. We at least like them when we get to know them.
 
FollowChrist34 said:
But what if he dramatically moves to the center? The general campaign is always very different from the primaries. Candidates always readjust. The primaries are aimed at the base. Trump can afford to really pivot; his base will never vote for Hillary. And they are slavishly devoted to him and don’t know/care what he stands for anyway. It is all about image, emotion - Obama-like or Sanders.

Europe will warm to him - they have no choice. Especially when he goes “Chris Christie” with the platform. I understand your fears but they are groundless. I was like that too, but the fact that liberal New York Republicans are so into him should tell you something. They know him better than you or me or Sean Hannity. You are afraid of a straw man that has been created by anti Trump forces on the left and right. (woe to those who like that guy too - but that is another issue)
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I’m well aware that Trump is a marketing man. He knows how to spell out a brand and successfully sell it to a consumer. That’s to say: to all intents and purposes he doesn’t have any constant convictions. It’s all about sales with him. He isn’t a man of conviction but of instinct (I believe he was the first person in the area to fit his Atlantic City casino with strippers). For the general, he’d easily acquire a new mask if it can propel him towards the power he covets…

Problem is, he’s tied himself into a bit of a pandora’s box. His demagogic appeal rests on a set of very narrowly defined sentiments that overwhelmingly appeal to white, blue-collar men (among many others) who are worried about immigration, multiculturalism, free trade etc. and feel betrayed by the GOP establishment.

If Trump then goes “to the centre”…He becomes another establishment goon. Uh, won’t that hurt his fan base - just a little bit? What does it say about his trustworthiness? Why should anyone trust a pro-choice, pro-free trade pro-life protectionist?

Trump’s allure stems from his “new politics” - the fact that he doesn’t speak or act mainstream. If he goes mainstream, his show-boy antics will lose their lustre. As far as I see it, he’s trapped in a gilded cage which he locked himself in and threw away the key to open it. If he goes into the general as he is, he’s going to face serious trouble. If he goes mainstream, he defies the very reason why anyone would vote for him. I think he’s screwed.
 
FollowChrist34 said:
That is what is so brilliant. He can do whatever he wants, say whatever he wants. It is the appeal of celebrity, a winner. Obama had it. Besides Trump is smart; he is figuring out how to play the media, the delegates, the center where he needs to go. He just held his first “diversity” rally - of many, women, minorities, Muslims in attendance. Clinton and Sanders now question NATO, should it be revamped; where have we heard that before. People are cowards; Trump is not. That is the secret sauce. He says what others are afraid to. He pushes back on left extremism. (but again is cool on abortion) Because of this celebrity, Obama-esque coolness he can go center on social issues, big time (picture an Iron Dome over him). No squawking from the base. Legal abortion is cool if you don’t personally support it. 🙂

You don’t have to believe me. Just sit back and watch your TV until November.
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Can we go outside from time to time, to work, to buy food, to take a walk?
 
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