Ukraine

[GaryTaylor]

Just in from the BBC:

So there are a vocal but thuggish minority of fascists in the west causing problems for majority peaceful, pro-EU protesters and now biker-clad Night Wolves led by a man who calls himself “the Surgeon” in the east…and Russia is occupying part of the country and threatening the rest…my word, those poor people of Ukraine

Still comes back down to NATO and its alliance. The country [Ukraine] was moving quickly close as an autonomous community, enter Yanukovych who cooperated with the process for years.

huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/28/yanukovychs-assets-frozen-swiss-austrian-banks-block-ukraine-president_n_4875267.html

1994 Ukraine gave up all nuclear weapons to insure sovereignty. This is blatant aggression regardless that we should be considerate of Russians living in Ukraine. And in 1994 that meant Crimea also, even through complicated.

 

[Vouthon]

Still comes back down to NATO and its alliance. The country [Ukraine] was moving quickly close as an autonomous community, enter Yanukovych who cooperated with the process for years.

huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/28/yanukovychs-assets-frozen-swiss-austrian-banks-block-ukraine-president_n_4875267.html

1994 Ukraine gave up all nuclear weapons to insure sovereignty. This is blatant aggression regardless that we should be considerate of Russians living in Ukraine. And in 1994 that meant Crimea also, even through complicated.

Totally agree.

 

[pepipop]

The part I find most hilarious is that all the news media (everything from the cable news to the newspapers to the internet based blogging sites) are so desperate for news and for traffic that they will just keep re-posting old news, or do scare tactic headlines, and will take any twitter post, no matter it’s source and post it as news. In other words, right now normal Russian troop numbers are on the Crimean Peninsula, nothing else has occurred, and yet go to almost any news site and you would think Ukrainian and Russian tanks are rolling up and down Kiev fighting ship-of-the-line style

That would be my take on the situation, so far.

 

[M-Dent]

RE: NATO

Ukraine was a candidate for NATO and never became a member – so no there’s no obligation for NATO to offer anything beyond rhetoric.

 

[Vouthon]

newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/03/putin-goes-to-war-in-crimea.html

**MARCH 1, 2014 - PUTIN GOES TO WAR

POSTED BY DAVID REMNICK**

Vladimir Putin, the Russian President and autocrat, had a plan for the winter of 2014: to reassert his country’s power a generation after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He thought that he would achieve this by building an Olympic wonderland on the Black Sea for fifty-one billion dollars and putting on a dazzling television show. It turns out that he will finish the season in a more ruthless fashion, by invading a peninsula on the Black Sea and putting on quite a different show—a demonstration war that could splinter a sovereign country and turn very bloody, very quickly.

Sergei Parkhomenko, a journalist and pro-democracy activist who was recently detained by the police in Moscow, described the scenario taking shape as “Afghanistan 2.” He recalled, for Slon.ru, an independent Russian news site, how the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, in 1979, under the pretext of helping a “fraternal” ally in Kabul; to Parkhomenko, Putin’s decision to couch his military action as the “protection” of Russians living in Crimea is an equally transparent pretext. The same goes for the decorous way in which Putin, on Saturday, “requested” the Russian legislature’s authorization for the use of Russian troops in Ukraine until “the socio-political situation is normalized.” The legislature, which has all the independence of an organ grinder’s monkey, voted its unanimous assent.

Other critics of Putin’s military maneuvers in Ukraine used different, but no less ominous, historical analogies. Some compared the arrival of Russian troops in Simferopol to the way that the Kremlin, in 2008, took advantage of Georgia’s reckless bid to retake South Ossetia and then muscled its tiny neighbor, eventually waging a war that ended with Russia taking control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In a recent Letter from Sochi, I tried to describe Putin’s motivations: his resentment of Western triumphalism and American power, after 1991; his paranoia that Washington is somehow behind every event in the world that he finds threatening, including the recent events in Kiev; his confidence that the U.S. and Europe are nonetheless weak, unlikely to respond to his swagger because they need his help in Syria and Iran; his increasingly vivid nationalist-conservative ideology…

The legislators in the Russian parliament today parroted those features of modern Putinism. In order to justify the invasion of the Crimean peninsula, they repeatedly cited the threat of Ukrainian “fascists” in Kiev helping Russia’s enemies. They repeatedly echoed the need to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine—a theme consonant with the Kremlin’s rhetoric about Russians everywhere, including the Baltic States. But there was, of course, not one word about the sovereignty of Ukraine, which has been independent since the fall of the Soviet Union, in December, 1991.

If this is the logic of the Russian invasion, the military incursion is unlikely to stop in Crimea: nearly all of eastern Ukraine is Russian-speaking. Russia defines its interests far beyond its Black Sea fleet and the Crimean peninsula.

Marina Korolyova, the deputy editor of the liberal radio station Echo of Moscow, told Slon.ru, “I am the daughter of a military officer who went in with the troops that invaded Czechoslovakia, in 1968. Today’s decision of the President and the Federation Council—I feel the pain personally. It is shameful. Shameful.”

It is worth noting that, in Moscow, the modern dissident movement was born in 1968, when four brave protesters went to Red Square and unfurled a banner denouncing the invasion of Prague. Those demonstrators are the heroes of, among other young Russians, the members of the punk band ***** Riot. This is something that Putin also grasps very well. At the same time that he is planning his vengeful military operation against the new Ukrainian leadership, he has been cracking down harder on his opponents in Moscow. Alexey Navalny, who is best known for his well-publicized investigations into state corruption and for his role in anti-Kremlin demonstrations two years ago, has now been placed under house arrest. Navalny, who won twenty-seven per cent of the vote in a recent Moscow mayoral ballot, is barred from using the Internet, his principal means of communication and dissidence. The period of Olympic mercy has come to an end.

It’s also worth noting that, in 1968, Moscow was reacting to the “threat” of the Prague Spring and to ideological liberalization in Eastern Europe; in 1979, the Kremlin leadership was reacting to the upheavals in Kabul. The rationale now is far flimsier, even in Moscow’s own terms. The people of the Crimean peninsula were hardly under threat by “fascist gangs” from Kiev. In the east, cities like Donetsk and Kharkov had also been quiet, though that may already be changing. That’s the advantage of Putin’s state-controlled television and his pocket legislature; you can create any reality and pass any edict.

I spoke with Georgy Kasianov, the head of the Academy of Science’s department of contemporary Ukrainian history and politics, in Kiev. “It’s a war,” he said. “The Russian troops are quite openly out on the streets [in Crimea], capturing public buildings and military outposts. And it’s likely all a part of a larger plan for other places: Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson. And they’ll use the same technique. Some Russian-speaking citizens will appear, put up a Russian flag, and make appeals that they want help and referendums, and so on.” This is already happening in Donetsk and Kharkov.

 

[DaveBj]

I and some of my other fellow former USSR analysts from a federal agency that shall not be named have been having a lengthy discussion about this on Facebook. The general consensus is that in this case, Putin can pretty much do what he wants, because the current administration does not have the insert favorite anatomical term here to successfully oppose him. The borders of the former Soviet SSRs were drawn in the early days of the USSR in such a way as to weaken the power of the major ethnic groups, not to strengthen them. This is also true of Ukraine. Ethnic Ukrainians are pretty much a minority in the Crimean peninsula and in the industrialized eastern Ukraine. Ukraine will not survive in its current shape on the map, and there’s not a whole lot that we can do about it.

(If anyone was wondering, I have a BA in the Russian language and an MA in Soviet Studies, back when there still was a Soviet Union.)

 

[stevegravy]

Let us get real here. Do a quick google research on the Russian military presence in the Crimea, by agreement for years. The Crimea has been a vassal state of Russia’s for generations. A third of its population speak Russian.
Your President can thump the table and no one is listening as he is a second term wash up who cannot order military intervention; economic embargoes, or UN intervention with Russia’s veto.
Obama is impotent, and the world despises the weak.
Russia now controls the Crimea and the rest of the Ukraine is not far behind.
Yet one more nation in internal decay to add to the list of Egypt, Syria Iraq and all other States subject to the Arab Dawn.This list is not complete without Afghanistan and Somalia, and for other reasons, Greece and some of the other PIGS.
Which country do you want to bomb first. Oh sorry, that was Iraq. Second then… sorry again, that was Afghanistan…My best bet for third will be Syria but the Israeli may beat you with Iran.
Give the world a break, concentrate on rebuilding your cities and essential infrastructure and keep out of every regional conflict in the world. It is getting quite tiresome.

Betcha Putin is just shaking in his boots with Obama saber rattling!

 

[DaveBj]

Betcha Putin is just shaking in his boots with Obama saber rattling!

That’s not a saber that Obama is rattling; it’s the rubber dagger from his Pirates of the Caribbean play set

 

[bekalc]

I and some of my other fellow former USSR analysts from a federal agency that shall not be named have been having a lengthy discussion about this on Facebook. The general consensus is that in this case, Putin can pretty much do what he wants, because the current administration does not have the insert favorite anatomical term here to successfully oppose him. The borders of the former Soviet SSRs were drawn in the early days of the USSR in such a way as to weaken the power of the major ethnic groups, not to strengthen them. This is also true of Ukraine. Ethnic Ukrainians are pretty much a minority in the Crimean peninsula and in the industrialized eastern Ukraine. Ukraine will not survive in its current shape on the map, and there’s not a whole lot that we can do about it.

(If anyone was wondering, I have a BA in the Russian language and an MA in Soviet Studies, back when there still was a Soviet Union.)

My only question in this is why is it in Putin’s interest to separate Ukraine. Right now he has a huge population there that wants current closer ties with Russia, if Ukraine breaks there will be nothing stopping Western Ukraine from going to Moscow.

I do myself wonder why USSR borders are some how sacred. In Georgia, the people of S. Ossettia, have pretty good reasons for wanting independence more so than Crimea. I.e in the early 90s war with ethnic cleansing and the Georgians getting rid of some of the minority protections that had under the USSR

However the contrast is I doubt the Russians want the same for Chechnya. However, I’ll be frank and say I don’t know how I feel about them getting independence. When Moscow was gone, my understanding is the

 

[GaryTaylor]

He does not want NATO on his border, Frankly if I were him I wouldn’t either. Obama was sleeping at the wheel and NATO was moving closer by the day. Georgia should also become part of NATO and be accepted. Obama needs to get on the ball before he starts a war.

 

[Vouthon]

He does not want NATO on his border, Frankly if I were him I wouldn’t either. Obama was sleeping at the wheel and NATO was moving closer by the day. Georgia should become part of NATO and be accepted. Obama needs to get on the ball before he starts a war.

Obama has been nothing but conciliatory towards Russia. He made it clear many times that his focus was East Asia and that he did not see Russia as the geopolitical enemy of the US. He prevailed over harsher voices such as Romney and Palin who thought otherwise.

I would have thought that if Putin had genuinely peaceful aims and was open to a new relationship with the West, then he would have been fully supportive of a soft spoken president in the White House.

But no, he has merely exploited his weakness which to me reveals Putin’s true purposes.

 

[GaryTaylor]

Obama has been nothing but conciliatory towards Russia. He made it clear many times that his focus was East Asia and that he did not see Russia as the geopolitical enemy of the US. He prevailed over harsher voices such as Romney and Palin who thought otherwise.

I would have thought that if Putin had genuinely peaceful aims and was open to a new relationship with the West, then he would have been fully supportive of a soft spoken president in the White House.

But no, he has merely exploited his weakness which to me reveals Putin’s true purposes.

This was a swift, calculated, and executed plan by Putin, I’m just saying Obama was behind on this and was the intelligence. I also don’t think many of the comments out of the administration helped. Calling people names so they cooperate doesn’t seem like constructive dialogue. That’s where I’m coming from.

 

[Vouthon]

This was a swift, calculated, and executed plan by Putin, I’m just saying Obama was behind on this and was the intelligence. I also don’t think many of the comments out of the administration helped. Calling people names so they cooperate doesn’t seem like constructive dialogue. That’s where I’m coming from.

No worries, I can see where you are coming from

 

[Seamus_L]

NATO expansion only increases the chances of major confrontations. Look at the organization’s history since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

1.Bombed Serbia doing Holy Week destroying churchs and enambled an Albanian Muslim victory in Kosovo, which included mass attacks on churches and cemeteries.
2.According to high ranking members of it’s government, Macedonia was threatened with military action by NATO when the former were on the verge of defeating armed Albanian Muslims.
3.Bombed Libya, and insured a strong foothold for radical Islamicists.
4.Would have had some participation in the near bombing of Syria last Summer, which would have been catastrophic for Christians and other religious minorities.
5.Turkey is a member.
For reasons like this, I pray for peace, but in a NATO vs Russia confrontation, my sympathies are with Russia.

 

[M-Dent]

I and some of my other fellow former USSR analysts from a federal agency that shall not be named have been having a lengthy discussion about this on Facebook. The general consensus is that in this case, Putin can pretty much do what he wants, because the current administration does not have the insert favorite anatomical term here to successfully oppose him. The borders of the former Soviet SSRs were drawn in the early days of the USSR in such a way as to weaken the power of the major ethnic groups, not to strengthen them. This is also true of Ukraine. Ethnic Ukrainians are pretty much a minority in the Crimean peninsula and in the industrialized eastern Ukraine. Ukraine will not survive in its current shape on the map, and there’s not a whole lot that we can do about it.

(If anyone was wondering, I have a BA in the Russian language and an MA in Soviet Studies, back when there still was a Soviet Union.)

With your experience – what’s your opinion of the below quote (not sure if it’s by John Pike or someone else) at Globalsecurity.org?

“Russia without the Ukraine is a country; Russia with Ukraine is an empire.”

 

[Vouthon]

If Russia feels that its citizens in the Crimea were under threat, why then did it not ask for UN observers or a peace team to be sent to monitor and evaluate the situation? Why did they not speak directly to the new authorities in Kiev? No diplomatic route was sought. All Russia did was claim the West caused the Euromaidan protests (no grounds for that) and authorized to send in its troops, after sending in anonymous, mask-clad men to take over key institutions of the Crimean government.

I am sorry but on grounds of conscience it is impossible to defend this flagrant invasion of a sovereign territory. No attempt at a peaceful solution was attempted.

No power can send troops into another country on such a weak pretext without seeking international lawful sanction or pursuing diplomatic routes first.

 

[Vouthon]

And still the US is attempting to engage Russia:

US Secretary of State John Kerry tweets: This is not East-West, #US & Europe versus #Russia. This is about people of #Ukraine fighting against tyranny.

 

[GaryTaylor]

I know I read Lindsey Graham.

politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2014/03/graham-to-obama-stop-going-on-television-184283.html

 

[stevegravy]

This was a swift, calculated, and executed plan by Putin, I’m just saying Obama was behind on this and was the

Well this administration likes to lead from behind at leas that what they claimed in Libya.

 

[Vouthon]

16:07: According to the report, the attack was started by a group of plain-clothed men wearing bullet-proof vests and helmets, who were later joined by members of the Russian military.

16:06: BBC Monitoring reports: The Ukrainian State Border Service’s regional HQ in Simferopol has been stormed and captured by “unidentified armed men”, the service says in a statement circulated by UNIAN news agency. The headquarters of the Simferopol border detachment has also been taken.

bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405082