Who Will Win the US Presidential Election

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Ridgerunner said:
Not necessarily. Most of the DFS people and people I know, who work with handicapped around here are Republicans. Of course, in this area virtually everyone is a Republican now.
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Well, I have met 2 so I’m not saying they all are. 🙂
 
kozlosap said:
According to the 538 Blog written by Nate Silver, there is an 87% chance that the President will be re-elected. His analysis is based on mathematical statistics using data from all polls considered valid from the entire country. The main element is the Electorial College, although the national vote is also included. Yes, this is published in the NY Times, BUT, after reading his analysis and protocol, I tend to believe that his method has been validated.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Yes, I’m a Catholic and voting for Obama/Biden.

(Just my 2 cents worth)
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He will be invalidated by this time Wednesday.
 
kozlosap said:
According to the 538 Blog written by Nate Silver, there is an 87% chance that the President will be re-elected. His analysis is based on mathematical statistics using data from all polls considered valid from the entire country. The main element is the Electorial College, although the national vote is also included. Yes, this is published in the NY Times, BUT, after reading his analysis and protocol, I tend to believe that his method has been validated.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Yes, I’m a Catholic and voting for Obama/Biden.

(Just my 2 cents worth)
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Nate Silver’s polling methodology is a joke. He’s dead last on most poll lists for accuracy. What he’s doing is peddling politics, not math.

Rasmussen and Gallup are the ones to watch. There are also poll aggregators online such as RCP that are worth keeping in consideration. The aggregated sheer sample size of polling averages makes them worth watching.
 
estesbob said:
He will be invalidated by this time Wednesday.
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Well, somebody will be validated, at any rate. I highly doubt it will be Nate Silver.

It will either be Rasmussen or Gallup, my bet. RCP will probably come out pretty close too.
 
iloveangels said:
If you want to see an impeachment and a conviction, then vote accordingly in your senate and house races. IT could happen.
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Yeah, it could, but even If I vote, t depends on how others vote. Fortunately in my state we have good candidates. However the other states will vote differently and let me and the church down.

Also, on another note, is it wrong to pray for The president to be impeached if he wins?
 
estesbob said:
He will be invalidated by this time Wednesday.
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Well, somebody will be validated, at any rate. I highly doubt it will be Nate Silver.

It will either be Rasmussen or Gallup, my bet. RCP will probably come out pretty close too.
ringil said:
And that fellow from Louisiana- can’t remember his name . . . . . RIP. . . .
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Are you guys reduced to going out & tearing up the bayou to find somebody to tell you what you want to hear now?
 
estesbob said:
He will be invalidated by this time Wednesday.
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Well, if he is, then he will pay off the $1000 to Joe Scarbourgh of Morning Joe and then figure out where his math went wrong! At least we know for 100% that half of the bloggers and pollsters will be invalidated.:eek:
 
losnlee02 said:
kozlosap;9976678:
Yes, I’m a Catholic and voting for Obama/Biden.

Could you please, if you don’t feel it is too personal, tell me why and how you can vote for them? I just don’t get it. 😦
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I dont either. I would like to know what proportionate reasons would allow a catholic to vote for a man who supports homosexual marriage and unrestricted taxpayer funded abortion on demand? i have not run across a single member of the magesterium that has even hinted a Catholic could vote for a person who holds such views.
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iloveangels said:
Nate Silver’s polling methodology is a joke. He’s dead last on most poll lists for accuracy. What he’s doing is peddling politics, not math.

Rasmussen and Gallup are the ones to watch. There are also poll aggregators online such as RCP that are worth keeping in consideration. The aggregated sheer sample size of polling averages makes them worth watching.
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Whereas Princeton’s accuracy for '04 and '08 were almost flawless.

election.princeton.edu/

Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.3%, Bayesian Prediction 99.9%
 
Rubicant said:
Whereas Princeton’s accuracy for '04 and '08 were almost flawless.

election.princeton.edu/

Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.3%, Bayesian Prediction 99.9%
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I don’t believe it. They’re going down this year. This race is tight.

The results you get out of the model depend on how the model is set up and what you put in.

There’s another model at the University of Colorado, BTW, that says the exact opposite and it’s been right since 1980. colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
 
So tempted to select “someone else,” just for the fun of it. Must…not…do…it. 😃

I need pnewton’s cat, I think.
 
I don’t think it is really that tight of a race at all. I think that it is being portrayed as a tight race to soothe Obama’s ego.
 
iloveangels said:
I don’t believe it. They’re going down this year. This race is tight.

The results you get out of the model depend on how the model is set up and what you put in.

There’s another model at the University of Colorado, BTW, that says the exact opposite and it’s been right since 1980. colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
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From your article:
The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes.
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Look at Princeton’s error rate -
Princeton’s Prediction: 2004
286EVs(Bush) to 252EVs(Kerry)
48%(Bush) Popular vote to 50%(Kerry)

Outcome: 2004
286EVs(Bush) to 251EVs(Kerry)
50.7%(Bush) Popular vote to 48.3%(Kerry)

Princeton’s Predictions: 2008
352EVs(Obama) to 186EVs(McCain)
53%(Obama) to 46%(McCain)

[Biased analysis:
364EVs(Obama) to 174EVs(McCain)
53%(Obama) Popular vote to 46%(McCain)]

Outcome: 2008
365EVs(Obama) to 173EVs(McCain)
52.9%(Obama) Popular vote to 45.7%(McCain)
 
losnlee02 said:
kozlosap;9976678:
Yes, I’m a Catholic and voting for Obama/Biden.

Could you please, if you don’t feel it is too personal, tell me why and how you can vote for them? I just don’t get it. 😦
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  1. Education for all either rich and poor.
  2. The "real "Republican Party has been taken over by knuckle draggers and those who don’t believe in science.
  3. Medicare. Medicare. Medicare
  4. I have a 28 year old who had 2 heart surgeries at age 25. When she graduated from law school and lost her health insurance she was denied 5 times for new insurance. On the last denial letter was an insert for those living in California with pre-Exsisting conditions. She applied to the California Pre-Exsisting Health Insurance Plan and was accepted. She pays a large deductible and $250 a month, but it saved her from moving to the UK where she would have full coverage. This plan was mandated by the AHCA and federal funding for underwriting comes from taxes on cigarettes.
  5. Educated ( and non educated) women have enough of a glass ceiling without having those who need extraordinary help with binders of extraordinary resumes from women to help populate their cabinets.
  6. I am not a one issue voter, I look at the big picture then add into the equation who holds social justice stances close to my own.
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Lormar said:
I don’t think it is really that tight of a race at all. I think that it is being portrayed as a tight race to soothe Obama’s ego.
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And in an attempt to bamboozle the American populace. And out of sheer delusion for the people like Chris Matthews who gets tingles up his leg.
 
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