Lockdowns never again: Sweden was right, and we were wrong

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. . . . According to the FT, large US corporate bankruptcy filings are now running at a record pace and are set to surpass levels reached during the financial crisis in 2009. As of August 17, a record 45 companies each with assets of more than $1bn have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In Germany, about 500,000 companies are considered insolvent and have been zombified by a pointless “insolvency law” that simply extends the pain of businesses that are technically bankrupt. In Spain, the Bank Of Spain alerted that 25% of all companies are on the verge of closing due to insolvency. According to Moody’s estimates, more than 10% of businesses in the leading economies are in severe financial stress, many in technical bankruptcy.

How could this happen? Since the 2008 crisis all policy actions have been aimed at keeping sovereign bond yields low, bailing out bloated government spending and deficits and the massive liquidity injections have benefitted the large quoted companies that have used the money to shield their valuations through buy-backs and cheap debt. However, cheap money has also triggered malinvestment, poor capital allocation and higher-than-normal levels of debt. Small businesses did not see the alleged benefits of the massive liquidity and deficit programs, while large companies became too comfortable with elevated levels of dent, poor return on capital employed and solvency ratios that were simply too low in a growing economy.

Cheap money and massive bailouts have planted the seeds of a solvency crisis that was triggered by the irresponsible decision of some governments of shutting down entire economies. If you have an economy that is highly leveraged and with weak productivity and solvency ratios, shutting down the economy for two months is the last nail in the coffin. And the ramifications will last for years. . .
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. . . If saving lives simply, rather than saving lives from Covid-19 were our goal, we could have likely saved more than two million lives and at a lower cost. How so? For every $14,000 spent on smoke and heat detectors in homes, a life is saved. For every $260,000 spent on widening shoulders on rural roads, a life is saved. . . .

The lesson here is a simple one: There is no policy that just simply “saves lives.” The best we can do is to make responsible tradeoffs. Did the lockdowns save lives? Some people claim they did – at a cost of $7 million per life saved if the initial estimates were correct – while others fail to establish any connection between lockdowns and lives saved. . . .

Regardless, there are all manner of other tradeoffs here. The lockdowns didn’t just cost millions of people’s livelihoods, they also cost people’s lives. Preliminary evidence points to a rise in suicides. Nationwide, calls to suicide hotlines are up almost 50 percent since before the lockdown. People are less inclined to keep medical appointments, and as a result life-saving diagnoses are not being made, and treatments are not being administered. Drug overdoses are up, and there is evidence that instances of domestic violence are on the rise also. . . .

But what if the lockdown actually didn’t save 2 million lives? There is strong, if not irrefutable, evidence that the initial projections of Covid-19 deaths were wildly overstated.

We can refer to a natural experiment in Sweden for some clarity. Sweden’s government did not lock down the country’s economy, though it recommended that citizens practice social distancing and it banned gatherings of more than 50 people. Swedish epidemiologists took the Imperial College of London (ICL) model – the same model that predicted 2.2 million Covid-19 deaths for the United States – and applied it to Sweden. The model predicted that by July 1 Sweden would have suffered 96,000 deaths if it had done nothing, and 81,600 deaths with the policies that it did employ. In fact, by July 1, Sweden had suffered only 5,500 deaths. The ICL model overestimated Sweden’s Covid-19 deaths by a factor of nearly fifteen. . . .
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Motherwit said:
The study compared the 4 Nordic countries as they have similar populations, economies and cultures.
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It limited it’s analysis to novel employment stats, not the economic output/impact.

Also, they stopped their analysis in May, which is fairly early in the pandemic cycle.
 
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It is worth looking at what both Cardinal Sarah and Pope Francis have agreed with. In terms of the mass, both agree that we need to return to it urgently. They agree that these decisions are up to ecclesiastical authorities, and that returning to mass is “necessary and urgent”. It sure looks like Lockdowns are over from their perspective.
“liturgical norms are not matters on which civil authorities can legislate, but only the competent ecclesiastical authorities.”
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I could not agree more. It’s time to end “go to Mass if you want to”.
 
I believe Swiss licorice candies can ease coughs very good, and sauerkraut is good source vitamin C of foods for the lock down.

But no concrete evidence for Sweden in virus fighting.

I think Vietnam is master in virus war, then followed by New Zealand, and maybe some African countries.

Small country, almost size of California, 97 millions people, only about 1200 cases and less than 40 deaths since March. no outbreak.

People automatically wore masks after China outbreaks since Feb.

Close schools immediately since Feb.
Shutdown the country for two weeks in Mar.
close the borders.
ban local travel except necessities,
quarantine all those entered the country, test, and catch all pre symptomatic cases, tracing the infected.
neighbor watch for the visitors and sicks.

They missed some local presymptomatic cases infected by the foreign travelers, but no outbreaks because of face mask wearing at least and probably
their traditional cooking method increased the immune system during the pandemic.

India had highest infection rates but very low deaths. I am suspecting their popular ashwagandha longevity tea and cooking method helped them to increase T cells and immune system.
 
From the article -

Sweden’s relaxed approach to living with COVID-19 has been the subject of international scrutiny, but now a group of 200 scientists, medical experts and teachers are turning up the heat on the official version of events.

The group, of which Australian expat and former epidemiologist David Steadson is a member, told news.com.au they are challenging “unethical, unresearched and unsubstantiated reporting of the disastrous handling of the pandemic in Sweden”.

They have taken exception with what they call “flawed and cherry-picked science” within the Swedish Public Health Agency which is managing the response to COVID-19.

I can’t understand why governments distort data when it’s the very thing the world depends on to defeat the pandemic. These people are either blind to the bigger picture or just plain evil. Either way they have no sense or appreciation of the common good.
 
Motherwit . . .
I can’t understand why governments distort data when it’s the very thing the world depends on . . .
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If they think the data is so “distorted”, just bypass it and go to Sweden’s current deaths. Pretty hard to sugar-coat that.

That’ll teach 'em.

But wait!

Sweden’s death rate is approaching zero (as I posted above) and case load has decreased dramatically (which suggests the case projection is either accurate or inconsequential at least as it concerns mortality).

And you forgot to put THAT data from the same article up.

But fear not! Here it is . . . .
“People would die unnecessarily and I was frankly disgusted with what I was hearing from the Swedish Public Health Agency.” . . .

. . . In the last week just 1.3 per cent of tests showed COVID-19 cases, compared to more than 19 per cent at the pandemic’s peak. The number is lower than in neighbouring Norway and Denmark. . . .
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Look at the above too, and ask yourself WHY people died “unnecessarily” before.

Remember. Sweden’s socialized medicine system decided
not only to NEGLECT to treat their elderly Corona virus patients,
but to AUGMENT DEATH by treating elderly patients with a respiratory depressant! (Narcotics.)

So when you see things like . . . .
People would die unnecessarily . . .
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You HAVE TO ask yourself “WHY did they die?”"

Why indeed.
 
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Wait a minute. Are you praising or criticizing Sweden’s approach? I agree with you that Sweden has demonstrated a disregard for vulnerable people. But the whole anti lockdown was based on that. The reason for lockdown in the first place is to protect the vulnerable in society. They could be where Denmark, Finland and Norway are now. All at the same place but without all the deaths.
 
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Motherwit said:
Are you praising or criticizing Sweden’s approach?
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Where do you get THAT alleged motive from what I have written??

No. I have not praised Sweden killing off their elderly Corona virus patients and yes I have criticized it.

Here it is again . . .
I agree their [“kill 'em”] patient-care model should not be followed. It should be condemned.
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Didn’t you read this?

I even rhetorically condemned it to YOU in a post (a post you never responded to).

Here is THAT again too . . .
Do you think Sweden administering narcotics to elderly people who are having difficulty breathing, is therapeutic? Do you even think that is “neutral” Motherwit?
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Now that we got THAT out of the way, just remember there are reasons other than lack of masking that explain at least SOME of their inordinately high elderly death rate.

There are likewise reasons WHY if you thought neglecting to test kids, that you could bypass any chicanery by looking at the high school kids death rate.

But the truth is,
Sweden’s death rate is now approaching ZERO,
and Corona virus is almost certainly as benign in the overwhelming majority of Swedish children as it is in American children.

As a matter of fact, in children and adolescents,
influenza is considerably MORE deadly than COVID-19.
 
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Cathoholic said:
just remember there are reasons other than lack of masking that explain at least SOME of their inordinately high elderly death rate.
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Not enough to account for the 10 to 15 higher death rate. That’s grasping at straws.
Cathoholic said:
There are likewise reasons WHY if you thought neglecting to test kids, that you could bypass any chicanery by looking at the high school kids death rate.
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Testing school kids is part of contract tracing and preventing the spread. It’s all part of regard for the vulnerable as well. If kids in Sweden were tested, their official infection figure would be higher. That’s a distortion when compared with their neighbors who do test children
Cathoholic said:
But the truth is,
Sweden’s death rate is now approaching ZERO,
and Corona virus is almost certainly as benign in the overwhelming majority of Swedish children as it is in American children.

As a matter of fact, in children and adolescents,
influenza is considerably MORE deadly than COVID-19.
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Again, testing children is part of stopping the spread. I don’t know why that doesn’t make sense to you?
 
Motherwit . . .
Not enough to account for the 10 to 15 higher death rate. That’s grasping at straws.
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Good grief.

Show me their age-adjusted death rate then if you really think that?

(Then we will see who REALLY grasped at straws.)

Almost certainly you are going to see the overwhelming majority of deaths were elderly. The same “eldely” Sweden was (self-admittedly) passively “euthanizing” with narcotics instead of treating for corona virus.

Motherwit . . . .
Again, testing children is part of stopping the spread. I don’t know why that doesn’t make sense to you?
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Probably because their death rate is approaching zero and testing healthy asymptomatic people results in false positive tests.

That’s WHY it makes sense. Kids who are symptomatic can still get tested.
 
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Thbolt said:
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Cathoholic:
Good grief.

Show me their age-adjusted death rate then if you really think that?
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What age adjusted death rate? The death rate is Sweden from COVID has been 5 to 10 times its neighbors.
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Make that 10 to 22 times its neighbors.

Sweden has 9 times as many deaths as Denmark, 17 times that of Finland and 22 times as many as Norway. Cathoholic’s claim that this is accounted for by euthanasia in Sweden is unbelievable.

 
Motherwit . . .
Cathoholic’s claim that this is accounted for by euthanasia in Sweden is unbelievable.
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OK. Now again. Show me the ages of the people who died so we can see if it believable or “unbelievable”.

That seems easy enough.

You can just refute this by showing me about all those young Swedes that would NOT be euthanized who died.

Easy peasy.

Then I just admit I am wrong.

So instead of you merely proclaiming ipse dixits,
think about the extreme propensity for elderly to be susceptible with this disease, then easily explain to me (by breaking down the ages), that this was a non-factor for Sweden.

Show me all these young non-euthanized people who died.
 
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Motherwit . . .
Sweden has 9 times as many deaths as Denmark . .
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Not now they don’t.

Haven’t you been reading the posts?

Sweden’s death rate now is approaching ZERO.
(Had they treated instead of killed those elderly [which is what SHOULD HAVE occurred - they should have been treated - and would have resulted in substantially less death], those elderly that survived would have immunity today.
And Sweden’s death rate today would still be approaching ZERO).

So we are left with two obvious questions.

1 - WHY did Swedes (almost certainly the vast majority who were old with corona virus) die?

2 - WHY are Swedes NOT dying now (at least en-masse) and even on some days having considerably LESS DEATHS than their neighbors?

Why do you think these things are happening motherwit?

(Instead motherwit seems to think masks are the big factor here.)
 
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Ridgerunner said:
I could not agree more. It’s time to end “go to Mass if you want to”.
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If you mean ending the dispensation and allowing the elderly to watch from home, I could not disagree more, and so does our bishop, who has proclaimed the dispensation for the pandemic. Despite that dispensation, we are getting very good attendance (voluntary) at our masses in Minnesota.
 
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Why disagree with THAT Leaf?

The elderly and sick ALWAYS have had dispensations. Even BEFORE corona mania. Nothing would change for them.
 
Cathoholic said:
Why disagree with THAT Leaf?

The elderly and sick ALWAYS have had dispensations.
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No, just the sick. Those over 65 did not have an automatic dispensation just because they were 65.

And even the somewhat younger who live with a grandparent or elderly parents might choose the dispensation now to protect those elders.

Why are you so anxious to bind people under pain of mortal sin when their bishops are not?
 
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Cathoholic said:
As a matter of fact, in children and adolescents,
influenza is considerably MORE deadly than COVID-19.
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Even the CDC’s own data agrees with this at least for the US though I would skip the word “considerably”.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

From this:
Covid-19 deaths for 0-17 years of age: 91
influenza deaths for 0-17 years of age: 123

And both are very minimal as compared to the total population of under 18’s in the US. Something that keeps getting lost in the debate dominated by the paranoids among us.

Back to Sweden: these two points can both be true:
  1. Sweden didn’t handle their elderly much better than New York did. But like New York, that was months ago. Something that @LeafByNiggle insists on with respect to New York. So why isn’t that applicable to Sweden since both jurisdictions apparently now have a better handle on caring for their elderly?
  2. Sweden’s case and death tolls are way down and have been for weeks now. They peaked at 115 deaths in a day back in April. They haven’t had ten deaths in a day in two months now. Say whatever you want, that’s the number we’re seeing today. Pulling an “ipse dixit” against this with no data won’t fly here.
 
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