Who Will Win the US Presidential Election

[Rich_Olszewski]

There is a continuing trend to see the right to medical care as a human right, and even a civil right. This has been the point of view in Europe for decades. The tentative efforts in the US with “Obamacare” are another expression of this trend, in the US.

Germans, for example, are appalled when I discuss the issue, and explain to them that in the US, having medical care depends on being able to pay for it, which usually means having an employer. Once someone is seriously ill, then they no longer have an employer, and therefore no way to pay for medical care. Also, the callousness and illogic behind denying insurance to those with pre-existing conditions makes no sense to a German. They see the purpose of a healthcare system to be to provide medical services to those who need it, based on medical need. They tend to see receiving this care as a human rights and social justice issue.

So it is also in other European countries. But, tell that to our conservatives. I have excellent coverage at work and am eligible for Medicare besides, but a neighbor of mine who is out of work and under 65, and has a serious health problem is SOOL. The good ol’ fend-for-yourself American way, of course.

 

[Trader]

I don’t understand why Chicagoans always get a bad rap when it comes to voting multiple times. My great-great-great-great-great-grandfather was from Chicago and he has voted in every presidential election since our country was founded, but never more than once!

That makes sense. If seniors vote in higher percentages than the young, why shouldn’t the dead vote even more than seniors? It’s not like they are busy with other earthly concerns.

 

[Teelynn]

Let’s have a history lesson shall we:

2004
Princeton’s Prediction:
286EVs(Bush) to 252EVs(Kerry)
48%(Bush) Popular vote to 50%(Kerry)

Outcome:
286EVs(Bush) to 251EVs(Kerry)
50.7%(Bush) Popular vote to 48.3%(Kerry)

2008
Princeton’s Predictions:
352EVs(Obama) to 186EVs(McCain)
53%(Obama) to 46%(McCain)

[Biased analysis:
364EVs(Obama) to 174EVs(McCain)
53%(Obama) Popular vote to 46%(McCain)]

Outcome:
365EVs(Obama) to 173EVs(McCain)
52.9%(Obama) Popular vote to 45.7%(McCain)

2012
Princeton’s Prediction As of Nov 5, 10:00AM EST:
Obama 305 to Romney 233

Links:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_US_Presidential_Election
election.princeton.edu/2004/11/01/final-prediction/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_US_Presidential_Election
election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/final-predictions-for-2008/

And all of the other statistical modelers are in rough agreement. They have a high rate of historical accuracy compared to the media and pollsters who would desperately like for these people responsible for peeling eyes away from the news to just go away.

There is absolutely NO WAY this will happen. As close as this race is which has been talked about by liberal and conservative alike, throughout the entire campaign, no way will it be a landslide for Obama. I’m not saying Obama will loose, I’m just saying this is a ridiculous percentage. Same goes for Romney. Some people are predicting a landslide for him as well…HOGWASH. Ain’t gonna happen on either side.

 

[St_Francis]

So it is also in other European countries. But, tell that to our conservatives. I have excellent coverage at work and eligible for Medicare besides, but a neighbor of mine who is out of work and under 65, and has a serious health problem is SOOL. The good ol’ fend-for-yourself American way, of course.

I agree that something needed to be done about our medical system, I am just against what was actually done. Single-payer would have been better than this mess, even tho I don’t agree with single-payer either.

Europeans once had a system which cared for the ill–the Church. Monks and nuns provided care for those in need until their monasteries were stolen by the Protestant rulers. This was a good way of handling the care of people in need: people pitching in as they could to care for them; care was seen more as a community thing. Consider the town of Gheel, Belgium, where St Dymphna, patron saint of the mentally ill, settled after her father lost his mind. The townspeople helped the mentally ill from all over Europe for centuries and is now integrated into the Belgian health services.

Now, I realize that a lot more groundwork would need to be laid before we would be able to have a system like that, but something which is more like that rather than the federal government imposing whatever it will on us is not at all a good solution.

 

[_Abyssinia]

Let’s have a history lesson shall we:

2004
Princeton’s Prediction:
286EVs(Bush) to 252EVs(Kerry)
48%(Bush) Popular vote to 50%(Kerry)

Outcome:
286EVs(Bush) to 251EVs(Kerry)
50.7%(Bush) Popular vote to 48.3%(Kerry)

2008
Princeton’s Predictions:
352EVs(Obama) to 186EVs(McCain)
53%(Obama) to 46%(McCain)

[Biased analysis:
364EVs(Obama) to 174EVs(McCain)
53%(Obama) Popular vote to 46%(McCain)]

Outcome:
365EVs(Obama) to 173EVs(McCain)
52.9%(Obama) Popular vote to 45.7%(McCain)

2012
Princeton’s Prediction As of Nov 5, 10:00AM EST:
Obama 305 to Romney 233

Links:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_US_Presidential_Election
election.princeton.edu/2004/11/01/final-prediction/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_US_Presidential_Election
election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/final-predictions-for-2008/

And all of the other statistical modelers are in rough agreement. They have a high rate of historical accuracy compared to the media and pollsters who would desperately like for these people responsible for peeling eyes away from the news to just go away.

What is this prediction based on?

This prediction from 2 Unviersity of Colarado professors say Romney will win

colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College

Where is link to 2012 prediction?

 

[Seamus_L]

Just voted about an hour ago, and this look’s like the largest turnout I’ve ever seen in the suburbs in over 30 years.

 

[_Abyssinia]

Just voted about an hour ago, and this look’s like the largest turnout I’ve ever seen in the suburbs in over 30 years.

You are not the 1st to say that. I wonder what this means. Big turn out from republicans or democrats?

 

[Rich_Olszewski]

Big turn out from republicans or democrats?

How can you tell? Hereabouts, there are not separate polling places for Dems and for GOPers.

 

[Seamus_L]

In my area it’s a clear majority of Republicans, so this is definitely favoring Romney. Of course in the city this wouldn’t be considered a big turnout at all.

 

[Luigi_Daniele]

In my area it’s a clear majority of Republicans, so this is definitely favoring Romney. Of course in the city this wouldn’t be considered a big turnout at all.

Not asking you to reveal where you live, OK?

Are you in a swing state?

 

[_Abyssinia]

Third election reports from citizen journalists: gop surge

Good news for Republicans: Early voting in Colorado was R+2

twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/263472666156081152

OHIO: 82% counties in the state have already increased their GOP early vote turnout from 2008

Romney +4 in Ohio Battleground County (Lake) — Suffolk Polling (Nov 4)

 

[Rich_Olszewski]

In my area it’s a clear majority of Republicans, so this is definitely favoring Romney. Of course in the city this wouldn’t be considered a big turnout at all.

How can you tell? Are the two sets of voters required to wear identifying badges or something like that so we’d know how they voted?

 

[Joe_5859]

How can you tell? Hereabouts, there are not separate polling places for Dems and for GOPers.

You just count how many people are wearing red and how many are wearing blue.

 

[_Abyssinia]

How can you tell? Hereabouts, there are not separate polling places for Dems and for GOPers.

You can not tell 100% but I am reading of polling stations in republican heavy areas with large turn out

 

[Rich_Olszewski]

You just count how many people are wearing red and how many are wearing blue.

Ah, yes. As long as they remember to wear their “colors.” Sounds like L.A. gangs. I’ll be sure to wear a blue tie when I go to vote after supper.

 

[Roselle]

Dick Morris was brave and is predicting a very good showing for Mitt Romney today. He gives good reasons why he believes the way he does in his article.

“Prediction: Romney 325, Obama 213”

dickmorris.com/prediction-romney-325-obama-213/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports

Thought this interesting, and goes along somewhat with what Dick Morris has been saying about poll numbers being heavily weighted in Democrats favor. The Salt Lake Tribune news paper arranged to have a poll done recently. Results came back showing the Republican candidate winning. The paper then asked for the poll to be redone, as it thought to many conservatives where weighed into the poll. New result shows the race to be near even.

“It’s Now Public: Editors Rejigger Polls”

commentarymagazine.com/2012/11/06/its-now-public-editors-rejigger-polls/

From John Podhoretz’s article:

…The Salt Lake Tribune does not appear to have endorsed a candidate in the mayoral race, but it is a liberal paper in a conservative state that earned headlines nationwide for endorsing Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. So perhaps one can presume its editors favor the Democrat.

To recap: A newspaper pays for a poll. It doesn’t like the look of the results. So it asks the pollster to reexamine them and alter them by changing his “weights.” He does so; he may agree with the call (as the Mason Dixon pollster says he does in the story) or he may be simply serving the interests of his paying client.

And it will do so based on the partisan split—the very controversy that is dismissed so cavalierly by media types.

We only know about this one because of the highly unusual circumstances of its revision. The question you have to ask yourself now is: How many times does this happen before a poll is published?

 

[Seamus_L]

I live SW of Chicago and Republicans are the clear majority around here. There are Romney signs up in the area, but none for Obama.

 

[Joe_5859]

Ah, yes. As long as they remember to wear their “colors.” Sounds like L.A. gangs. I’ll be sure to wear a blue tie when I go to vote after supper.

I wore red this morning totally by accident. It didn’t occur to me until I showed up to vote that I was wearing one party’s “color”.

It’s a good thing I didn’t vote yesterday when I was wearing blue.

 

[Ridgerunner]

So it is also in other European countries. But, tell that to our conservatives. I have excellent coverage at work and am eligible for Medicare besides, but a neighbor of mine who is out of work and under 65, and has a serious health problem is SOOL. The good ol’ fend-for-yourself American way, of course.

Not in all European countries. In France, you pay up front for medical care (hospital care excepted) and then bill the government yourself. Normally there is a 20% co-pay. One-third of people are in a better, “private” system, which will happen here as well when Obamacare degrades medical care for most.

Better keep your coverage at work. The chief actuary for Medicare says it will soon pay less in reimbursement than Medicaid due to Obamacare. So, your neighbor will be just as SOOL when he’s 65 as he is now, thanks to Obama. If doctors are reluctant to take Medicaid patients (which they will be even more when Obama dumps 17 million more people into it) imagine how reluctant they will be to take Medicare.

 

[Joe_5859]

I live SW of Chicago and Republicans are the clear majority around here. There are Romney signs up in the area, but none for Obama.

It will be interesting to see what happens. In 2008, Obama won my entire county by a mere 50 votes over McCain. This county is historically very democratic, so it was actually quite a surprise. This time around, I see a lot more Romney signs than I ever saw McCain signs. And much fewer Obama signs.

Not that my anecdotal evidence means a whole lot.