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guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/06/obama-polls-victory-romney-death-knell
Polls show an Obama victory as history dictates death knell for Romney
The polling aggregates are crystal clear.Code:Mitt Romney had it going for a while, but major polls show his luck has finally run out – and I'm not going to disagree. It now seems that Romney's luck has finally run out. President of the [United States](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/usa) [Barack Obama](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/barack-obama) looks destined to claim victory at some point this evening or early tomorrow morning in the 2012 presidential election. Why do I have confidence?
FiveThirtyEight, HuffPollster and Real Clear Politics all have President Obama winning at least 303 electoral votes. The latter two actually have Obama taking 332 electoral votes. Put another way, none of the aggregates really know something the others don’t. There’s no special formula needed to tell us who will win.
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
By NATE SILVERMitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.
But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.